Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Real Estate Industry Cuts Forecast, Prices To Stagnate 2 More Years
Canada’s real estate industry is tempering its expectations after a weak Q1. CREA sees 2026 home sales just 1% higher than 2025, slashing its 5.1% growth forecast from January. Falling sales are seen in four provinces, with prices stalling through 2027, marking a 7th consecutive year of stagnation. Diving into the numbers, even these lowered expectations feel like a stretch.
Canadian Job Market Booms In West, Slumps In East, Gap To Widen: BMO
Canadian politics isn’t the only thing with a dramatic East-West split—so are the job markets. Eastern Canadian cities are generally seeing employment eroding, especially in Ontario, where unemployment hit 7.6% in March. Over in Western Canada, the resource boom is turning into a job boom. Ranking the country’s cities for job strength, BMO warns that the divide will grow further.
Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit 17-Year Low, But Prices Keep Climbing
Canadian real estate prices rose (+$3.1k) to $664.4k in March, marking a 3-month winning streak. However, the month was also the weakest March for home sales in the past 17 years. Inventory slipped but remains lofty, with the demand balance similar to 2025, when the market was considered weak. Higher prices can be due to people just choosing to pay more, but more likely this is a composition anomaly—a measurement skew, not necessarily reality.
Canada’s Soaring Wage Growth Not Reality, It’s A Statistical Quirk: BMO
Is Canada seeing a wage boom amid weak economic conditions? The annual average wage growth surged to 4.7% in March, the fastest rate since October 2024. It’s a data point that may conflict with the reality households are living in, and for a good reason—it’s not reality. In a letter to investors, BMO Capital Markets explains this was due to a composition quirk (another one). The country’s rapidly aging population helped to drag the average higher. At the same time, job losses concentrated in entry-level roles and fewer young people meant less downward pressure on the average. Adjusting for job composition, annual wage growth was largely unchanged at 3.6%.
Canadian Building Permits Plunge, Fewer Homes Planned
Canadian politicians may be racing to see who can give more to builders, but it isn’t doing much. Building permit values fell 8.4% in February, unchanged from 3 years ago, despite the stimulus. Residential permit values climbed 1.7%, though they climbed as the number of homes planned fell. Meanwhile, non-residential permit values plunged a staggering 24%, signalling waning business confidence.
