Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Affordability Best In 4 Years, Still At 90s Bubble Levels: RBC
Canadian housing affordability is the best it’s been in the past 4 years, but that’s not as great as it sounds. RBC estimates a median household needs to spend 53% of its income on a home in Q1 2026, a 4-year low. That’s roughly the same level of affordability as Q2 1990, when the largest bubble in history peaked (present company excluded). The bank warns prices are now rising and rate cuts are unlikely, limiting future help.
Canadian GDP Climbs On Oil & Government Spending, Already Slowing
The latest GDP report shows Canada’s output climbed 0.5% in April, following a 0.1% drop in March. Growth appears broad, with 14 of 20 sectors expanding in the latest data. Drilling into the data reveals the headline isn’t quite as optimistic as it sounds. The vast majority of Canada’s output growth came from oil & gas, and public spending—both temporary. Their contribution is already fleeting, with StatCan’s forecast showing a slowdown.
Canadian Jobs Up, But Most Gains Went To People Getting A Second Gig
The country is adding more jobs, but they’re mostly getting scooped by those who already have one. Payrolls added 22,000 jobs in April, and a sharp loss in March was revised to show growth instead. The payroll data is seemingly in conflict with employment data due to the methodology. Most payroll growth was second jobs, but employment counts people—not jobs. In short, the payroll data isn’t the positive sign many believe it is. It reveals that more workers need to find additional work to tackle the rising cost of living.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto Real Estate Prices Resume Decline, Inventory Remains Lofty
Toronto real estate prices fell 0.6% in June, following four months of gains. That may be surprising given the tighter market, with more sales and fewer listings. There’s a good reason—even with the tightening, it was one of the weakest Junes for sales with total inventory remaining high. A good reminder that a tighter or improved market isn’t the same as strong or normal market conditions.
Vancouver Real Estate
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Slip As Inventory Wall Remains
Vancouver home prices fell 0.2% in June, down 6.0% from last year. Market conditions tightened as sales came in 9.3% higher than last year, but remained 46% lower than the 2016 peak. Inventory also fell to 17,017 active listings, but that’s still much higher than anything seen from 2015 to 2024.
