This Week’s Top Stories: Canada Makes Huge Upward GDP Revisions, & BoC Warns Against Mortgage Changes

Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.

Canadian Real Estate

Canada Makes A Huge GDP Revision, BoC Made Supersized Rate Cut On Bad Data

Canada’s economy is doing much better than previously believed, and that’s a problem. Statistics Canada made astronomical revisions to real GDP, adding the equivalent of an extra year of output over the 3 years of revisions. The shift means the economy is functioning much closer to its maximum capacity, indicating much more inflation is in the pipeline. That’s going to be a big problem for the Bank of Canada, who just made a double rate cut based on a growing output gap that isn’t an issue. 

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Bank of Canada Warns Policymakers Against Tinkering With Mortgages

Canada’s number two banker warned policymakers they were playing with fire when it comes to mortgages. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers warned that “tinkering” with mortgage regulations for short-term affordability improvements often costs borrowers more. In the medium and long-term, the tinkering will erode affordability further and produce more liabilities for the economy. 

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Canadian Real Estate Prices Make Another Sharp Drop Despite Rising Sales 

Canadian real estate sales picked up but prices continued to go lower last month. CREA data shows the price of a benchmark (typical) home fell 0.8% to $707,700 in September. That brings the cost 2.7% lower than last year, and 16.9% below the all-time high hit in March 2022. Annual growth of sales (+30%) is helping to brew some enthusiasm, but a recent immigration policy shift may dampen that in the coming months. 

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Canadian Consumer Insolvencies Continue Climbing Towards New Highs

Canadian consumer insolvencies are climbing. Annual growth came in at 8.8% to 11,452 insolvency filings in September. It was the third-biggest September on record, which covers more than 40 years of data. This has been a general trend over the past year, which is a bit of an issue considering this is recession-like performance when the narrative is that things are fine.

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Canadian Building Intentions Improve, But Inflation Killed Real Growth

Canadian building intentions appear to have improved but that may not be the case. Building permit values rose 11.5% (+$1.3 billion) to $13 billion in September, a record high in nominal values. However, when adjusted for inflation permit values have been on a steady downturn since the Spring. A lot more money for a lot less building—something we’re all getting used to these days.

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Canada Abruptly Cancels Fast-Track Student Visas Used By 4 In 5 Indian Applicants

Canada suddenly ended two popular programs to expedite student visas for certain countries. The Student Direct Stream (SDS) and Nigeria Student Express (NSE) programs expedited student visas for those countries, and tend to have a higher approval rate. It was used by a whopping 80% of students from India, Canada’s largest source of international students. It didn’t make much news, but the odd part is the abruptness of the cancellation, announced just a few hours before shutting down. 

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  • Brett weir 2 months ago

    Yes Canada needs immigration but white immigration
    In the 1960s we in Toronto had very few blacks and no asians
    In tge mid 1970s we started recieve the negros from.mainly carfibean
    Jamaicans arrived and they destroyed my city that was known as TORONTO THE GOOD yes blacks formed gangs and terrorized neighbourhoods mainly Jamaicans they killed police officers they killed a 16 year old girl at christmad the Jamaicans sure have some decent citizens but the bad outdoes the good we would be better off no negro
    Indians arrived late 70s and were ok lol yes the hood stunk but they intregated and we liked them but then when many came they elected to stay in own areas and not mix in and then started scsmming white people but mainly own
    They opened fake universities and promised citizenship. Thats nonsense we dont want that and they opened fake truck driving scholls and handed out unqualified licences to indian truckers
    5 years ago a indian crashed into a bus killing 20 white young men / boys and upon release from jail this asshole asked if he can stay in Canada ( get out )

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