Canadian real estate is expected to be slow for the rest of this year, but it won’t last very long. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shared their 2021 forecast. In the forecast for this year, they see minimal movement from the current average sale price. Next year they see huge gains returning, especially in Ontario. The province is forecast to see nearly double-digit growth in home prices next year.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecast To Grow Minimally In 2021
The Canadian real estate industry doesn’t see much more action for the rest of the year, which still has a quarter to go. The national average sale price is forecast to reach $680,025 in 2021. It would be an increase of just 0.03% ($170) from the year to date (YTD) average sale price as of August. In other words, they see virtually flat movement for the rest of the year, unlike the boom last year.
Canadian Real Estate Forecast
The forecast average sale price for 2021 and 2022.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
In Ontario, gains are expected to be a little higher — but most of the year’s movement is already in. CREA made an upward revision, and has now forecast an average sale price of $860,443 for 2021. This is 0.31% ($2,688) higher than the YTD average in August, so not a huge movement. Especially when compared to how the market was moving earlier this year.
Over in BC, the gains are expected to be half the size of Ontario. They have forecast an average sale price of $912,284 for 2021. Compared to the YTD average in August, this is 0.15% ($1,321) higher. Not much of a climb, but still higher than the forecast for the average at the national level.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecast To Boom Next Year, Especially In Ontario
The top for the year might be in, but CREA is expecting astronomical growth for home prices next year. The forecast average sale price at the national level reached $718,206 for 2022. On top of the 2021 forecast above, that would mean another 5.6% ($38,181) increase. It’s less than half of the YTD gains compared to last year, but still a decent amount of growth for prices.
Canadian Real Estate Forecast Change
The annual percent change to the forecast average sale price for 2021 and 2022.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Ontario real estate is expected to way outperform the national average. The average sale price is expected to rise to $942,325 for 2022. This is up 9.5% ($81,882) from the 2021 forecast, which is less than half of the gains forecast this year. Though the gain is still so large, most buyers might not appreciate the “slowing” growth.
BC real estate is expected to underperform the national average next year, which is a bit of a shock tbh. The forecast average sale price is $947,434 for 2022. The average is 3.9% ($35,150) higher than the forecast for this year’s total. Just a little above the forecast rate of inflation — which is great, but not the boom in Ontario.
Not a lot of price growth expected for the rest of the year, but we’ve already seen healthy gains YTD. Next year CREA is seeing much slower growth, but even half the rate of this year is huge. Ontario is a big outlier, where prices are seen climbing more than the median gross household income.
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