It’s the credit, stupid. That’s basically the conclusion from a US Federal Reserve Board staff paper. The paper, Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?, examined price levers. It paid special attention to the recent home price surge during the pandemic. The ultimate conclusion is stimulated demand was responsible for the surge, not […]
Policymakers have been telling the public that a soft landing is still possible. However, virtually no one believes it, according to BMO Capital Markets. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter recently explained that market expectations are eroding. Yields and commodity prices are cratering against a backdrop of higher inflation. This isn’t typical unless serious doubts have […]
Advanced economies replicating the same monetary policy mistakes are facing monster inflation. Now with additional external pressures driving inflation even higher, policy is tightening as the economy deteriorates. That’s the opposite of what usually happens, warns global forecasting firm Oxford Economics. Typically as the economy slows, rate cuts help to craft a soft landing. This […]
The US central bank is desperately trying to signal things are under control, despite letting inflation slip. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to make the largest rate hike in over 20 years. They won’t stop there, though, they hinted at similar hikes for at least the next two meetings this year. Quantitative tightening […]
Canadians know the real estate market is growing fast but how unusually fast it’s moving may not be clear. Data from US Federal Reserve researchers might help with that. The numbers show Canadian home prices increased at a rate at least 50% faster than any other G7 country in Q4 2021. The issue isn’t just […]
Canada has never seen anything like the current residential real estate market. Sure, affordability is often a problem at the peak of a real estate cycle. However, the gap between home prices and disposable incomes has never been this wide. Home prices have persistently outpaced wages for this generation, and it’s not slowing. The gap […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Real Estate Is About To Experience A “Full-Scale Attack,” Warns Big Six Bank Canada’s oldest bank warned investors of a “full-scale attack” on real estate this week. Climbing mortgage interest costs are just the start. Foreign buyer taxes, vacancy taxes, and […]
US real estate is in the first bubble since the Great Recession, and they might actually address it in time. In December, we revealed a little-known model from the Dallas branch of the US Federal Reserve showing US housing in a bubble. Central bank researchers maintain the model as an early warning system, allowing policymakers […]
Canadian real estate prices have increased at such a rapid pace, incomes aren’t even close. US Federal Reserve calculations show home prices in Canada have increased multiples of the rate of income growth as of Q3 2021. Most people have some idea how strange this situation is, but we need to zoom out to appreciate […]
Central banks went from the transitory narrative to scrambling to prevent another Great Inflation era, faster than it takes to print $100 billion in Fed Treasuries. In a speech today, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pledged to take extreme measures to curb inflation if needed. The central banker warned this includes the possibility of […]
