The Ontario real estate downturn is expected to worsen. Mortgage arrears in the province are approaching 2008 levels, according to the CMHC. The risk is even further amplified in Greater Toronto, especially with private lenders. The agency warns Ontario’s sharpest and most persistent surge in arrears will persist through mid-2027. Ontario’s Real Estate Boom and […]
Canada’s building boom and slowing population growth finally pushed it closer to its affordability target. Just kidding. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation‘s (CMHC) 2026 Housing Supply Report shows it was never a real target. Despite billions in subsidies and slower population growth, its estimated gap barely budged. The agency’s latest report pushes the target […]
Canada’s building boom is slowing, but not in the country’s biggest markets—with a big exception. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) data shows new housing starts fell in March. Despite the drop, two of the three largest markets saw an uptick in building activity. The exception was Canada’s most expensive market, where completed and unsold […]
Canadian real estate prices have come down, but this level still isn’t working for anyone. CIBC Economics wrote to investors this week, explaining prices have come down considerably, improving affordability. More affordable isn’t the same as affordable though, with demand nearly collapsing. The bank warns that housing starts have been misleading, reflecting past demand—not current. […]
The Canadian Parliament’s non-partisan, independent budget watchdog just gave a reality check for the latest housing plan. The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) latest report warns despite ballooning deficits, Ottawa is slated to slash funding for housing by 56% in the coming years. They expressed direct concern for the CMHC, where planned cuts will impact its […]
Canada’s odd surge in housing starts disappeared as fast as it arrived. CMHC data shows starts plunged by nearly a fifth in October, led by weak condo demand. BMO Capital Markets told investors this was largely expected and unlikely to lift prices. Starts remain historically elevated, and a wave of record completions will hit the […]
Canada’s recent real estate boom—and bust—was followed by an immigration surge charting a similar trajectory. Together, they expose generous high-leverage mortgage programs that shift risk off lender books and onto public and private insurers. These programs enabled buyers with minimal credit and few local ties to purchase homes at peak prices. With values now plunging, […]
Canadian new home starts are slowing—but not as fast as population growth. In Q1 2025, builders broke ground on more than two homes for every person added. If the current trend persists, the average household size will hit a record low by next year. That’s a far cry from the alarm raised by Canada’s state-owned […]
Canadian policymakers are helicoptering money to stimulate building, but it doesn’t appear to be working. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the total value of building permits fell sharply in April, dropping to the lowest monthly volume in nearly a year. The annual decline was so large it was amongst the largest since 2020. Canadian […]
Canada’s next leader hasn’t officially assumed the role, but he’s already looking to stimulate real estate. Last week, Vancouver’s “Condo King” Bob Rennie revealed that he is working with newly-minted LPC leader Mark Carney. The two are considering a plan that would see the country’s state-owned mortgage insurer use taxpayer resources to attract foreign investment […]
