Canada’s national housing agency just published its latest piece of fan fiction. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has released its 2025 Housing Outlook, the agency’s forecast of various risk scenarios. The agency’s worst case scenario includes American tariffs delivering a devastating economic blow. The agency somehow sees this producing higher home prices, an immigration […]
Canada appears to be doubling down on its position that more demand will create affordability. Earlier this week, the Government of Canada (GoC) announced its “boldest mortgage reforms ever,” including its most ridiculous mortgage reform ever—first-time buyers using state-backed, high leverage loans to purchase $1.5 million homes. Confused? You’re probably thinking: First-time buyers usually don’t […]
Everyone in Canada will soon be able to afford a home. We just need investors to build more and rates to be cut, right? Anyone that can do basic math has probably been skeptical of that narrative and with good reason—even the people making those statements don’t believe it. Internal messages from the CMHC make […]
Canada’s record population growth combined with slowing new home construction might seem paradoxical at first. The Government of Canada (GoC) claims it’s because housing is “illegal” but a confidential memo sent to lenders indicates it’s an issue of leverage. The CMHC quietly notified lenders they’ll be extending the maximum amortization, or length of repayment. The […]
Canada’s economy will be in the shitter, but at least the cost of shelter will rise, eh. That’s the takeaway in the latest housing forecast from the CMHC, Canada’s national housing agency. The state-owned mortgage insurance firm is calling record existing home prices alongside a weakening economy. They attribute the increase almost exclusively to a […]
Canada is taking crisis-style mortgage market intervention, and making it an everyday thing. That was the feedback the Government of Canada (GoC) received from the CMHC. In recommendations dated in 2022, the CMHC explained the country’s plan to directly fund mortgage borrowing is unusual for a Sovereign, and blurs the line between normal markets and […]
Canada’s national housing agency is forecasting things are going to get worse in the next few years. The CMHC’s latest forecast expects a booming population and lower rates driving housing demand. As a result of the surging activity, existing home prices are expected to rise over the next couple of years. Despite soaring demand and […]
One of Canada’s Big 3 mortgage insurers is no longer publicly sharing its underwater exposure. Canada Guaranty quietly dropped the value of mortgages with negative equity in its latest data, as first reported by the Globe. Is the private insurer, backstopped by taxpayers, hiding a public concern? Let’s take a quick dive into the issue, […]
Canada’s real estate developers are pushing forward despite less-than-ideal conditions. CMHC data reveals June housing starts made the biggest jump in a decade. Even with the jump, the general trend has been fewer housing starts, despite the booming population growth. At least one of Canada’s largest banks has stated the country’s goal to double output […]
Will Canada’s real estate market correction hit pause with an influx of cheap credit? CMHC data shows that 5-year conventional mortgage rates fell in February. Not huge, but the second consecutive month since the most aggressive climb in a generation. With credit costs plummeting even faster in March, it could provide a boost for the […]
