Canadian headline building intentions are still coming in strong, but details are less flattering. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data show building permit values climbed in January, but remain weaker than pre-2023 levels once inflation-adjusted. A non-residential surge was behind most of the improvement, but it was taxpayer-funded, cementing Canada’s dependence on borrowed growth. Canadian Building Permits […]
Canada’s most expensive markets are on a collision course with its formerly affordable markets. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows quarterly rents in Toronto and Vancouver cooled in Q4 2025. The gap between expensive and traditionally affordable markets didn’t, with cities like Halifax now renting where Toronto was just 4 years ago—despite the latter’s economy being […]
Smaller mortgages historically carried larger delinquency risks in Canada. Not anymore. TransUnion data now shows the largest mortgages falling into arrears at more than double the rate of the smallest. The reversal resembles the unwinding of the US housing bubble, when those with supersized mortgages rapidly cracked. Canadian Mortgage Risk Is Usually Concentrated At The […]
Greater Toronto’s real estate rut shows no signs of ending soon. BMO Capital Markets recently shot down the pent-up demand and slowing supply narratives, warning investors the market is filled with supply no one really wants. Toronto Real Estate Weakness Is Being Led By Condos Source: BMO Capital Markets; TRREB. Toronto’s slide continued last month […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canada’s Public Spending Spree Means Higher Mortgages For Longer A new National Bank of Canada (NBC) report confirms what most already know—government spending is spiralling. Government “investment” has grown at 3.5% annually over the past three years, over double the 1.7% rate […]
Canada is using public spending to mask private sector weakness, and the bill won’t stop at taxes. A new National Bank of Canada (NBC) report warns public investment is growing at over twice the rate of overall GDP. It’s also fueling more borrowing, lifting the benchmark rate that impacts borrowing costs for everything from government […]
Canada’s central bank is “chasing its tail,” warns a new Bank of Canada (BoC) staff paper. The researchers studied the impact of including mortgage interest in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), discovering the circular logic. The BoC sets interest rates based on CPI, but CPI includes mortgage interest costs driven by those very rates. As […]
Canadian real estate affordability is improving at a record pace—after collapsing at one too. National Bank Financial’s (NBF) Housing Affordability Index shows affordability across the country improved for an 8th consecutive quarter in Q4 2025. The bank’s data reveals meaningful progress, but the core problem remains: Home prices are still deeply unaffordable, even after the […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Mortgage Delinquencies Just Made A Rare, Historic Jump Canadian banks are experiencing a sudden and abrupt climb in mortgage delinquencies—again. Banks reported the arrears rate climbed 1 basis point to 0.26% in December, the highest since June 2020. However, the key […]
Canada’s banks are still discovering the extent of the mortgage leverage problems their customers face. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows the mortgage arrears rate climbed in December, hitting a nearly 5-year high. The rate was driven by an abnormally large monthly jump in mortgages entering arrears. Canadian Mortgage Arrears Rate Approaches 5-Year High CBA […]
