The Canadian economy is slowly recovering, but the unemployment rate is still elevated. Somehow small businesses are unable to find unskilled labor, even as wages rip higher. National Bank Canada (NBC) deputy chief economist Matthieu Arseneau attributes this to generous income support. In the bank’s opinion, the support has created a “disincentive” to work. Canadian […]
Canada’s highly indebted households didn’t see their finances improve during the pandemic. Many did get a lot more neat stuff they couldn’t afford without low interest rates though. That’s the takeaway from the MNP Consumer Debt Index, conducted quarterly by Ipsos. The poll found a third of Canadians consider themselves “house poor.” Even more are […]
The Canadian economy is improving, excluding some minor hiccups like this morning’s GDP. An improved economy needs less stimulus, and that means higher mortgage rates. To see what Canada is in for, we modeled a forecast range for 5-year fixed-rate mortgages. If Canada doesn’t go into a double-dip recession, much higher mortgage rates are coming. […]
Canadian inflation should be smooth sailing, coming in low and stable from now on. A small catch though — your cost of living may not actually see low inflation. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) consumer price index (CPI) data shows an unexpected slowdown in June. The popular interpretation for today’s release is, this proves high inflation […]
Canada’s central bank is warning about a rapidly deteriorating mortgage environment. Yesterday we unpacked Bank of Canada (BoC) data on highly indebted borrowers representing a larger share of mortgage originations. Today we’re looking at an issue that builds on that — these borrowers have little equity. Highly indebted households with little equity are the perfect […]
You’re not alone if you aren’t buying the “inflation is transitory” narrative. BMO Capital Market senior economist Robert Kavcic unpacked price change sentiment data. Small business owners see the cost of goods rising a lot over the next year. In fact, prices are expected to rise the most in at least a decade, by a […]
The whole world might be in a property bubble, but Canada is the second riskiest. That’s the take from Oxford Economics in their latest housing report this morning. Adam Slater, the firm’s lead economist, broke down fundamentals for global markets. He found double-digit overvaluations are widely seen these days. The firm believes a correction is […]
Canadian mortgage credit must be seen as too cheap to pass on, since everyone is borrowing. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows the outstanding mortgage credit for May grew at the fastest rate in over a decade. The balance is also likely to climb at an even faster rate as well, despite the backdrop of […]
Canadian real estate prices have been generous to sellers over the past year, but not so much for buyers. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released the results of its annual Mortgage Consumer Survey for 2021. One of the more interesting stories told in the data is how buyers are navigating this market. It […]
Remember that time the head of Canada’s central bank said the housing bubble was good for the economy? Soak it up, because that may be the last time it ever happens. The Bank of Canada (BoC) finished its technical report on the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM). The model, which is used by the BoC as […]
