Canadian real estate always marches to the beat of its own drum, which may not be a good thing soon. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic shared his take on last month’s home sale numbers. He observed a strong market, but said it continues to show we’re past peak momentum. He warns of a potential “bizzaro” […]
One of Canada’s top economists found the latest employment numbers “odd.” BMO chief economist Douglas Porter’s latest research note looked at employment data. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows April payrolls rising, but employment falling. The agency attributed these conflicting trends to a lag in payroll, which they say is typical. Porter pulled the receipts […]
Canadian Job Vacancies Hits A New Record, As 600,000 Positions Sit Empty Canada has hundreds of thousands of unfilled jobs, despite elevated unemployment levels. BMO weighed in on the vacancy numbers, which jumped to an all-time high in Q1 2021. Robert Kavcic, the bank’s senior economist, estimates vacancies are now the size of 2.5% of […]
Homebuyers fled big cities like Toronto during the pandemic, searching for suburban deals. Most of those deals are now gone, as small cities and rural Ontario saw prices soar. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic argues this in his latest client research note. The gap between buying in a big city like Toronto, and a small […]
Lumber prices are still making a nose dive, as supply catches up and demand softens. Last week we mentioned lumber prices have officially crashed from their all-time high. This week BMO economist Carl Campus wrote to clients that prices have fallen below US$1,000/mbf. This is the first time it fell below that mark since March. […]
Canada’s housing boom isn’t just home sales — it’s consuming the whole economy. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic crunched home renovation numbers for Q1 2021. The bank found household spending on renovations hit a new high last quarter. Spending in this segment is growing so fast, it now represents a record share of the economy. […]
Canadian real estate’s high flying prices are increasing the risk of a large correction. BMO Q2 2021 disclosures show the bank made big revisions to its risk forecast. In the best-case scenario, they see exuberance pushing prices more than twice as high as previously thought. In the worst case, they’ve more than doubled the size […]
The Canadian economy is recovering faster than expected, and inflation is running hot. As a result, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to hike rates and end QE more quickly than previously thought. Here’s the accelerated timeline two of Canada’s “Big Six” banks see. RBC Forecasts Rate Hikes By Next Year, QE Ending This […]
Canadian real estate markets booked another hot month, but it may have marked the top. At least for market momentum. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic says April may have been the peak for market momentum. Various factors are coming to a head that will lighten some pressure on the gas. Homes Sales Were Strong, Even […]
Another Big Six Canadian bank is warning inflation will be worse than people think. Not one, but two inflation research notes were published by BMO this week. Yeah, it’s only Tuesday. Chief economist Douglas Porter says there are many signs inflation will run hot. The bank warned, “if you’re not just a bit worried about […]
