Canada’s growth engine has long been small businesses, but the country is all in on large firms. BMO Capital Markets warns that while large firms make up only a small share of total employment, they’ve accounted for virtually all job gains in 2025. The bank cautions that this imbalance is amplifying downturn risks and could […]
Canada’s odds of recession remain above 1 in 3, according to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Market Participants Survey (MPS) for Q3 2025. The survey of banks, asset managers, and investment firms shows markets still expect a downturn within 6 months—and optimism is eroding even among the most upbeat respondents. Markets Give 1 In 3 […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Fitch Warns Canada of Credit Downgrade—That’s Bad News For Mortgages Canada’s supersized budget may soon cost households a lot more to borrow. Fitch Ratings warns the country faces a downgrade from AA+ to AA, citing gross debt more than twice the peer […]
Canada’s latest budget could cost households more than just higher taxes. Fitch Ratings warns Canada’s sovereign credit rating is at risk of a downgrade, citing persistently large deficits and no credible path back to fiscal normalcy. A downgrade would act as a red flag for investors—eroding confidence and raising borrowing costs across the economy, from […]
Canada’s job market showed surprising growth last month, according to Statistics Canada (StatCan). The agency’s latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows employment climbed sharply in October, marking a second consecutive month of growth. Employment was so strong that multiple jobholders surged, and seniors—who typically face hurdles to new employment—represented over 1 in 3 workers who […]
The Government of Canada (GoC) surprised investors this week with a budget that pairs soaring deficits with minimal new borrowing. If that sounds off, it is. Budget 2025 relies heavily on financial engineering, with a significant portion of its funding already issued—it’s November 2025, remember? Banks warn bond issuance is set to soar within months, […]
Canadians earned less last year—but not across the board. New taxfiler data from Statistics Canada (StatCan) shows the country’s top earners barely budged in 2023, even as most earners saw their income eroded by inflation. But the real insight isn’t who made the most—it’s how they made it. As poorly targeted policies continue to penalize […]
Canada’s recent real estate boom—and bust—was followed by an immigration surge charting a similar trajectory. Together, they expose generous high-leverage mortgage programs that shift risk off lender books and onto public and private insurers. These programs enabled buyers with minimal credit and few local ties to purchase homes at peak prices. With values now plunging, […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canada Uses US Bubble Scheme To Transfer Investor Risk To Home Buyers Ontario is the latest province to offer sales tax relief to first-time buyers of new homes. The move follows federal incentives announced earlier this year, adding to the recently introduced […]
Toronto’s real estate downturn deepened last month, and new homes weren’t spared. Data from industry group BILD shows September sales hit a record low for the month, worse than the 1990s real estate crash. Most of the data looked ominous, but there was a curious detail—condo prices climbed, defying the demand collapse. That divergence may […]
