Canada’s private-sector business environment is worse than headline data suggests. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows active businesses were little changed in July, but a closer look reveals the economy has seen big changes. Active business growth is increasingly concentrated in sectors dependent on public spending. The headline data has obscured reality, masking a sharp erosion […]
Canada’s economy was already unraveling before the immigration boom, according to CIBC Economics. A new report from the bank argues the downturn was inevitable—cheap credit masked deeper structural issues, and the post-pandemic recoil would have occurred in any event. The bank suggests the non-permanent resident (NPR) boom may have softened the economic damage, not amplified […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Mortgages Backed By Inflated Home Values, Zero Equity Canadian lenders are using inflated new home appraisals to increase mortgage leverage. Following the sharp drop in home prices, lenders are turning to blanket appraisals—which recognize the contract price as the asset value. […]
Canada’s about to become one of the world’s largest exporters of shiny rocks. BMO Capital Markets recently told investors that gold is just a hair shy of being Canada’s second-largest export. Underlying output has quietly scaled over the past 25-years, leaving the industry well-positioned for the recent price surge. Though it’s worth noting that the […]
Canadian real estate is forecast to see some sunshine—but not without periods of volatility. RBC now sees a gradual path to recovery for home sales, but warns it will be uneven, softening its stance on a “soft landing.” Most markets are expected to improve—except Toronto and Vancouver, where prices are seen falling further. The outlook […]
Canadians will soon answer an age-old question—if home values are inflated to facilitate mortgage leverage, will regulators actually do anything? Canadian lenders are increasingly using blanket appraisals, treating pre-construction contract prices as market value to maximize leverage and close new home purchases. The move shifts risk from developers to buyers—especially those who bought at peak, […]
Canada’s central bank is running out of excuses. Headline inflation surged in September, according to Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rising headline inflation is certainly a concern, but it was dwarfed by what the agency omitted: the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core inflation metrics. The BoC recently floated the idea of […]
Canadian real estate revived an old risk: mortgage debt is back in the driver’s seat. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows household credit climbed again in August, driven almost entirely by mortgage debt. While borrowing remains historically slow, mortgages are still growing much faster than other forms of credit—now accounting for nearly 8 in 10 […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canada Sees Foreign Investment Surge, But They Want Debt—In US Dollars Canada just saw foreign investment return—but not in a good way. The country saw a net inflow of C$25.9 billion in August, the largest in over a year, and it was […]
Canada saw foreign investment return, but it wasn’t the positive indicator it normally signals. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows foreign investors recorded a net inflow of $25.9 billion in August, the most in over a year. Nearly all of it was debt demand, though not the kind policymakers brag about. Investors skipped government bonds, equities, […]
