Greater Toronto is far from Ontario’s hottest market, as everyone scrambles to buy… uh, rural property? Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows every market in Ontario is seeing massive price growth in November. This trend isn’t being driven by major cities like Toronto or Ottawa. Instead, small commuter suburbs and cottage country are what’s leading the market.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Are The Worst Performing In Ontario
Greater Toronto real estate prices are growing very quickly, just not as quick as the rest of the province. The aggregate home’s benchmark price reached $910,000 in November, up 0.78% from the month before. This represents a 10.48% increase from the same month last year. Both the monthly and annual rate of increase are huge. The monthly increase is almost half the annual inflation target. The annual rate is something that hadn’t been seen too frequently prior to 2015.
Ontario Real Estate PricesThe price of a typical home in Ontario’s significant real estate markets, in Canadian dollars. Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Small Cities In The Greater Golden Horseshoe Lead Monthly Gains
Small cities located throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe made the largest advance last month. Quinte’s benchmark price leads at $404,400 in November, up 4.09% in just the month. Bancroft follows with a benchmark price of $318,900, up 3.26% over the same period. Barrie comes in third with a benchmark of $604,800, up 3.04% in November. The monthly gains in these regions exceed annual gains for incomes in much of Canada.
Ontario Real Estate Prices (Monthly Change)The monthly percent change in the price of a typical home in Ontario’s significant real estate markets, in Canadian dollars. Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
Ontario’s Cottage Country Sees Biggest Annual Price Gains
The biggest annual gains across Ontario’s major markets were all in cottage country regions. Kawartha Lakes saw the biggest increase with the benchmark price reaching $493,400 in November, up 28.98% from the same month last year. Woodstock-Ingersoll followed at $467,200, up 28.34% over the same period. Quinte was in third with a benchmark of $404,400, up 28.11% from last year. For context, Greater Toronto’s booming market in 2017 only saw this kind of growth for about 4 months. These are extremely large (and odd) market gains.
Ontario Real Estate Prices (12-Month Change)The 12-month percent change in the price of a typical home in Ontario’s significant real estate markets, in Canadian dollars. Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.
The type of price growth seen is being driven by a few trends, most notably work from home, mortgage rates, and a flight to the suburbs. Work from home has let people work from pretty much anywhere, allowing further mobility from cities. Mortgage rates are at record lows, pushing buyer budgets to the max – allowing them to spend more, without feeling near term pain. The pandemic’s lockdown and shuttering of local businesses had a lot of people questioning whether the urban premium is worth it. Whether this changes immediately after the end of the pandemic, or if a semi-permanent shift in behaviour will persist, is anyone’s guess.
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