Canada

Experts Predicted A Mortgage Boom At Canadian Credit Unions. That Isn’t Happening

Experts Predicted A Mortgage Boom At Canadian Credit Unions. That Isn’t Happening

The Canadian real estate industry didn’t worry when banks announced they would be stress testing mortgages. Instead, many mortgage brokers boasted that borrowers would just go to credit unions, since they weren’t subject to the same rules. Bank of Canada (BoC) numbers show that isn’t the case. The balance of mortgage debt at credit unions continued to rise in February, but at the same pace as usual. Actually, in many ways, it underperformed previous years.

Credit Unions Are Not Subject To Stress Testing

The new mortgage stress test reduces the maximum size of a mortgage. OSFI B-20 Guidelines require Federally Regulated Financial Institutions (FRFI) to test a borrower’s ability to make payments at a higher rate. This can reduce the maximum size of a mortgage by up to 20%. Great plan to prevent people from borrowing too much credit, while keeping rates low for business growth.

Except… credit unions aren’t FRFI, they’re provincially regulated. Industry experts, including mortgage brokers, thought credit unions would see an explosion of new borrowers, looking to skip the stress test. We won’t get into the regulatory reasons why credit unions can’t do that (yes, there are regulatory reasons), but we’ll go through the data instead.

Credit Unions Now Hold $197.6 Billion In Mortgage Debt

The outstanding balance of mortgages increased at credit unions. BoC numbers show the balance of outstanding mortgage debt rose to $197.6 billion, a 0.07% increase from the month before. This is an increase of 6.29% compared to the same month last year. That’s huge growth, just not as big as the industry was expecting.

Better Dwelling. Source: Bank of Canada.

The rate outstanding debt grew at was similar to other years. The monthly increase of 0.07% is exactly the same pace of growth observed this time last year. The annual rate of 6.29% is higher than last year, but still under the median rate of 6.69%, observed from 2007 to 2017. Once again, this is pretty substantial growth, just not indicative of an additional boom.

Better Dwelling. Source: Bank of Canada.

If people are going to credit unions to avoid a stress test, it isn’t showing up in the numbers. We know, it’s unbelievable that Canadians wouldn’t look for a loophole to control debt acquisition… but it’s happening.

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87 Comments

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  • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

    Could be there is a shift, but given the overall reduction in mortgage originations due to the slowdown in Toronto, the growth rate remains the same fore credit unions, while dropping for FRFIs. The shift is therefore hidden by the general downturn. That’s a hypothesis; I don’t pretend to know that for certain.

    • Mac 7 months ago

      Levels at the Big Six didn’t slow down either. With the Big Six, it’s because they were running on pre-approvals until the end of March, so no change was expected. Credit unions is higher, but it’s higher at just under the rate of price growth across the country. Seems like pretty standard growth, by no means Vancouver or Toronto driven.

      Too bad Canada’s mortgage market is about a clear as mud.

  • Mac 7 months ago

    Mortgage brokers and real estate agents have to be the least trustworthy people at this point. They’ll say anything to convince people that they should buy today, instead of when they’re ready. It’s pretty gross actually.

    I know not all agents are like that, but the vocal ones are. The media only gives a voice to your clowns, so that’s your industry representation.

    • Honest Agent 7 months ago

      I agree …and I’m a Realtor. I’m tired of the lowest common denominator “representing” the real estate industry. No, we are not all sociopaths driven by ego, however it’s an industry that attracts them in droves. I don’t understand why the public believes in selecting a top producing team (giant pyramid scheme) is the way to go. I’ve been a part of real estate teams and they really don’t care about their clients….its all about numbers, not families. The team leader will come to your home to sign the listing and it’s all bait and switch. The team lead will then assign your listing to a Jr. Agent and admin without your knowledge…not quite what you signed up for. Since, team leaders are typically off chasing listing appointments to feed their pyramid of agents who are not focused on customer service or cultivating repeat and referral business.

      I’ve also had to stop referring a mortgage broker to my clients about a year ago, after he boasted about using lenient appraisers, lenders and chip reverse mortgages…..which puts our market at risk. It’s a shady industry and it’s imperative to interview at least 3 agents who have been used by your sphere of influence. It’s true that Agents in the GTA who aren’t looking to screw over your family for their next commission cheque, do exist but are harder to find. Especially, since, their faces aren’t plastered across billboards or buses.

      In our present market in tbe GTA…..Do you want to know the truth about open houses? Or the truth about print ads? Do they sell your home and attract qualified buyers? Instead both are used for agent brand awareness and your home is centre stage for their horse and pony show? Digital advertising is much more targeted and effective…. i realized this as a Jr. Agent years ago tracking all of the leads coming through both top teams. Will an agent over price your home just to get the listing? Yes…and then beg for price reductions instead of being honest from the get-go. Agents aren’t forthright in telling you the truth about what goes on behind the so called real estate curtain. It’s beyond Buyer and Seller Beware….

      • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

        That mirrors the indirect experience I’ve had with realtors completely. I was renting a decent – though somewhat time-worn – 3 BR townhome 4 years ago in Ottawa. The owners decided to sell. The real estate office they signed with – one of the top sellers in Ottawa if not the top – promised them a quick sale for top dollar. What followed was months and months of futile showings, which never had a chance of going anywhere since the place was priced above market. They then had to talk the owners into reductions in price, which happened in stages throughout the spring/summer. The promised “quick sale” turned into 8 months.

        Luckily, we got out after 3 months of crap showings and having to vacate the premises a couple times per week, only to come home and find lights on, doors, cats stuck in rooms behind closed doors that should have remained open, etc.. The fact is, the place was solid, but needed a lot of work. Appliances and furnace and windows were still functioning fine, but all on their last legs. Of course, while it sat on the market, the realtors were blaming “the tenants” (that’s us) for not keeping the place neat enough, because we had too many cats (we had 3), etc. They once claimed that a clothes drying wrack we had in an otherwise empty spare bedroom caused a lost sale because the viewers “couldn’t move around”. The agent herself showed up once, and we never saw her again. Seems her only contribution was ordering the pictures and putting the ad online.

        We left that place neat and sparkling clean when we left, and it still sat on the market another 5 months. So much for blaming the tenants. Ultimately, the owners had to paint the entire place, replace the countertops, and put new linoleum in the bathrooms before it sold for $30K less than their initial asking. We know all this because we rented another townhome on the same street, and now know the new owners quite well. Basically, the realtors sold the owners a load of $hit, badgered us to vacate whenever their was a showing (even though there is no such allowance in the Ontario Residential Tenancies Act, and therefore we did not have to do so), and blamed us when it didn’t sell.

        Thankfully the owners knew us well and were quite favourably disposed towards us and appreciative of how we had kept the place up during our tenancy. They never totally bought into the “it’s the tenants’ fault” line. It was an eye-opening experience in real estate sales 101 for sure. I will not be using that outfit when I am ready to buy. Or sell. I don’t care if they are Ottawa’s biggest seller.

        • ketchup chips 7 months ago

          another dipshit renter. looks like you lived like a filthy tenant.

          • John 7 months ago

            Not sure I understand the sarcasm in this one…

          • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

            There’s no sarcasm, but plenty of irony. He’s lashing out at renters because he’s losing a small fortune each month on his “investment” condo. He was relying on tenants to pave his way to riches. Suddenly, rent control capped his cash flow, and B20 shit-canned any hope of refinancing to ease the pain. Now he’s hurting with no relief in sight. So he hates and belittles the very people he had hoped would make him rich. That’s irony.

          • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

            LOL AM. Yeah whats the matter Chips. Can’t find a loser renter who can bail you out by paying $3000 a month for your half a million dollar, 400sq feet of construction materials?

      • Sammy 7 months ago

        Tough gig these days if you just want to be an agent that finds people homes. This part to blame on predatory agents, but part to blame on buyers as well. They don’t want to hear that their home shouldn’t be the only investment they’ll ever need. Instead, they go to the agents that tell them that.

        • Gabriele Di Bernardo 7 months ago

          There are actually a lot of people like ‘CHIPS’ right now. There was a report released a few days ago that mentioned 5 out of every 10 condos in the GTA at this moment are owned by investors and that 50% of those investors are bleeding money (they stated that they have a negative cash flow).

          • ketchup chips 7 months ago

            they also mentioned there equity is up 150-200%. they don’t give a shit losing a few hundred a month to make $100-200K in 3 years. why is there only 1 type of ketchup but more than 10 types of mustard. because ketchup is the perfect condiment baby!

          • backwardsevolution 7 months ago

            Ketchup Chips – but ketchup is just a condiment, and it all ends up as sh*t in the end.

        • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

          150 to 200 thousand dollars, not percent.

          Buying cash-flow negative properties as a means of speculating on further price gains. No wonder you’re broke.

          • ketchup chips 7 months ago

            who said cash flow negative? your assumption show you are permanent tenant.

          • Foxxy 7 months ago

            There are many types of ketchup, including mushroom ketchup (seriously look it up), tomato ketchup is only one type of the sauce/condiment known as ketchup.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

            If you bought an “income” property over the past 3 years (which you have clearly done) then you’re cashflow negative. No wonder you’re insolvent.

  • Yu 7 months ago

    Would you have a provincial breakdown? I would like to know if credit unions in BC are being used more often, while the rest of the country is slowing. Thank you.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    New government rules are pushing good Canadians into more expensive private lending. Here is an interview with BNN. https://cashinmortgages.ca/in-the-media/

    In response, we created a Peer to Peer FinTech SaaS platform for private lending. “We take the SHADOW out of Shadow Lending” myBrokerBee.com.

    • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

      Do you have any sense how big the alt/ community based lending is? IE people who take a HELOC out on their home at 4% and then lend to others at 10-18%.

    • Trader Jim 7 months ago

      Pretty sure this isn’t the place where you drum up business from people that can’t do math, but I could be wrong.

    • Bluetheimpala 7 months ago

      Community lending will be our subprime but you already know that. Surprised you are just getting into this space as you’re 5 years too late, but you should know that. Plus I question how competitive you are versus standard shadow banking with lower overhead and different business objectives. Hope you can ramp up sales in the next 6 months because the recession will wipe you out… But you know that. BD4L.

      • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

        LOL Blue, yesterday I got my first ever cold call from a RE firm asking if I was looking to buy anytime soon……… sign of the times

        • Joe 7 months ago

          We’ve been getting 4-6 spam pieces per week both on our door and mailbox, the last couple years maybe one every few weeks. It’s getting pretty bad.

    • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

      I’m fine with that. When the peer-to-peer lending and “syndicated mortgage” nonsense collapses, there will be no bail out, no bail in, no taxpayer money involved at all. They’ll be allowed to go under – both lenders and borrowers – with zero assistance from the government, and very little threat to the larger financial system. That’s the way it should be. Marginal borrowers should be borrowing from marginal lenders, not regulated institutions. In reality, marginal borrowers shouldn’t be borrowing at all, but we all know they’re going to get the money somewhere.

      • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

        I guess there’s a caveat in what I just said. If lenders are being financed by people using HELOCs taken from major financial institutions, and secured against homes which still have mortgages held by major financial institutions, then this alt lending could well have an impact on the financial system. But hopefully it will not be large enough to put any large federal or provincially regulated lenders under.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    Trader Jim, not sure how responding to the article with a different opinion published in Nov 2016 is drumming up business? Please explain? Who cannot do math? Please explain that comment as well?

    • Bluetheimpala 7 months ago

      He is being nice and telling you to fuck off Mark. If you do not already know this is not the forum to schlep wares or be subversive. You are selling a product that is counter to our thinking that we should NOT be fucking over Canadians… If a bank won’t lend you money now to buy bubbly real estate it is probably a good thing. Acting like you are Robin Hood and helping good Canadians because the government stopped the gravy train is subversive; we needed saving from ourselves.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    Grizzly Guys, Can you post your numbers? ….We have numbers based on research but hey maybe the economists and analysts are wrong.
    I assume you are referring to the “Smith Manoeuvre” etc. ie HELOC.
    I would be interested in your numbers and then I will compare against our numbers.
    We are always interested in the opinion of experts.

    • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

      I have no numbers. I was hoping you could educate me with your expertise. I do not know if there is anything public that gives a sense of how many people today or over the past two years have been seeking out Private lenders. In one of those articles that quotes you it is talking about Private lenders who offer somewhere between 6-10% i believe it was. Just wondering if you can shed some light on how common this is. I just found out that someone I know has taken out HELOCS against an apartment building he ownes. He borrows at 4% and then lends out at 12-18%………. has tried to pitch me on getting involved a few times

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    Grizzly Guys, my mistake I thought you had intel on the market. You can start here with the Swiss report http://www.fsb.org/2018/03/fsb-publishes-global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2017/
    90 + Trillion
    CIBC & CMHC have also published numbers easy to google.

    • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

      I have read articles comparing the amount of canadian mortage debt held by big banks vs the shadow industry…. Have never been able to find anything that specifies how much of this industry is lead by groups like Home Capital vs the do it yourself investor turned creditor.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    Bluetheimpala, thank you for your informative insights and eloquence.

    • ketchup chips 7 months ago

      Mark, FYI. the commenters here don’t know anything and certainly are not experts. just a bunch of broke millenial renters praying for a correction to jump into the housing market they hate so much. no one here has any money so no point looking for business from these scrubs. this website essentially provides analysis for 6th graders while copy and pasting from TREB and other well known sources. i read the comments to understand the mentality of whiners and doomsayers and dumb people thinking they are smart with no insight.

      • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

        Lots of homeowners and “investors” showing up here lately to tell us what losers we all are. This is an odd place for perma-bulls to hang out, no? Over-leveraged homeowners, amateur landlords and speckers must be getting really nervous. Speaking of losers, here are some:

        https://www.communityforfairness.ca/our-stories

        No “broke renters” in that bunch. Just broke owners who can’t qualify under B20 and are now on the hook for new homes they can’t possibly get financing for. But as Frank Diesel explained to us yesterday, that too is the fault of ‘toopid jealous renters, because supposedly we whined until the government created new rules that screwed over home owners. (As if OSFI bases its rule changes on what renters want. One would have to be completely daft to believe that were the case.)

        • ketchup chips 7 months ago

          keep renting kid. when government change rules for homeowners and don’t provide purpose built rentals guess what – shit runs downhill – straight to renters. There are owners and then everyone else….. tip for you kid. the entire tax code benefits entrepreneurs/owners for a good reason. they take risk they deserve reward.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

            Entrepreneur? You’re an amateur landlord who got into the game too late, and now you’re angry, bitter and broke. I’d hate renters too if I were forced to subsidize them at one thousand per month. Entrepreneurs are rewarded for intelligent risks. They are not rewarded for buying rental condos in Canada’s major cities right now, where price-rent metrics are among the worst in the world. Do your research next time, and maybe you won’t be so bitter. No amount of tax incentives can save you from a cashflow negative business model. Too bad you had to learn that the hard way.

          • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

            If I buy ten bitcoin does that make me an entrepreneur?

          • MH 7 months ago

            If you meant to project an image of a shrewed self-confident investor envied by mere mortals, you have to keep working on your presentation. There are still some opportunities for improvement.

            Now seriously. Talk to a good insolvency trustee, it looks like you need help. I mean it without any sarcasm. You may be able to avoid this outcome but at least know your options in case the reward for the risks you took turns out to be not exactly what you expected. Markets do not owe anything to anyone. Blaming others for your mistakes is not going to help.

          • backwardsevolution 7 months ago

            Entrepreneur? More like a highly-leveraged, no-money-down, variable rate speculator who, because of easy credit and cheap money, was allowed a free ride on the party bus. Final destination – the Bagholder Motel.

      • Mmr 7 months ago

        It don’t matter what you or me or what people here are saying. At the end no one can see future. We might see huge crash or maybe nothing will happen but it won’t go up any more we are at the peak now. If you have money to invest wait till end of the year and then reassess the market before jumping in. If b-20 and interest rate increase don’t crash the market by end of year then I don’t think crash will happen. Maybe slight correction and then stable. If you want be even more careful then wait till next spring and then decide what to do.

        • vnm 7 months ago

          We could be in for a real marathon. I agree, as long as there are jobs, moderate interest rate increases, and stubborn delusional investors, who knows how quickly this will play out.
          But we’re dependent on the U.S. economy which accounts for more than 75% of Cdn. exports.
          There’s no doubt the U.S., is nearing the end of a decade long credit cycle, and a recession in the next 18 to 24 months is a near certainty. U.S. housing is close to pre-crash levels, the stock market as you say is vulnerable.
          Boomers are aging, the Millennial bump is going to start petering out in a few years, inflationary threats … and so on and so on.
          I just don’t see how we can dodge all those bullets. Any one of those is enough to push real estate off a cliff.
          While Canadian real estate as a whole may be somewhat over-valued, only Toronto and Vancouver are in bubble territory and The government has bigger fish to fry than worrying about idiots like Ketchup Chump going bankrupt.

        • Tommy 7 months ago

          Yeah it’s certainly not going up anymore. A report out today by urbanation suggests it now requires a $100k/year income to afford an average 740 foot condo (this is typically a 1 bedroom).

          I think there are too many negative headwinds to not see a correction. Everything from trade wars, to record levels of debt, and rising interest rates means something has to give. In fact, I think we’re already in the beginning stages of the correction. Condos will follow the same patter detached houses did by the end of the year.

      • Bluetheimpala 7 months ago

        Smaller words. More punctuation. Add boobs where possible. Catch phrases work. Need to dumb it down for the plebs.

        • ketchup chips 7 months ago

          grizz, blue, MH and AM. you all seem familiar. I think you wanted to rent one of my places but your credit was shit and you had $50K bottom feeder dead-end jobs. you chumps have no money – just a lot of empty words and worse analysis. you guys are right the way to make it is to be a renter even though a couple of generations of canadians have become rich from owning homes. keep sharing the avocado toast.

          • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

            I think I will keep eating my avocado toast, before and after I buy one of your properties for pennies on the dollar.

            If your credit isn’t maxed out I recommend you try some too while you still can. I’d imagine the soup kitchens don’t have the tastiest choices.

          • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

            You wish I was your tenant. My rent – unlike your mortgage – gets paid on time every month.

            “One of my places…” You’re not fooling anyone. You’re an amateur who borrowed against his principle residence and bought an “income property” at the 2017 peak. Now you’re bleeding cash out the asshole and raging over your bad timing.

            Experienced landlords know better than to denigrate and disparage their renting customer base in a public forum. Successful landlords know that good tenants are a valuable asset and worthy of respect. That’s how I know you’re neither experienced nor successful. You’re just another angry casualty of peak housing in Toronto.

          • ketchup chips 7 months ago

            AM. spoken like an experienced forever tenant.
            Grizz. who you kidding? you have no money. if market crash your low level admin job will be eliminated. no doubt EI is in your future.

          • ketchup chips 7 months ago

            AM. ‘tenant is an asset’? now i know you are wack. I figure you communist/NDP?
            you cost your last landlord lots of money by living filthy while he try to sell. you still paying loan off from college?

          • Grizzly Guys 7 months ago

            You probably won’t be able to read this Chips. There is a paywall

            https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-rbc-on-canadian-household-debt-cracks-are-starting-to-show-in-more/

            Predictions for 3 more rate hikes this year despite the fact RBC just came out saying we are starting to see cracks in all forms of consumer credit………

            Try an avocado while you still can

          • vnm 7 months ago

            Grizz, a paywall is the least of the dolt’s obstacles to being able to read something.
            Don’t wast a good avocado, Ketchup on Wonderbread is more his speed.

      • Russ 7 months ago

        With speculators (local/foreign) on the sidelines, this housing market will depend a lot on the millenials who are now in the prime of their working years. If millenials decide to stay put, expect housing market to keep correcting. A 10 % correction average each year for the next 2 or 3 years, that is a lot of savings for anyone, even those who can easily afford now. FYI, i can easily upgrade my 1 garage detached (bought in 2009) to a double garage detached home but why now ? I can get it for at least 20 or 25 % less in 2 years. Patience is a virtue

        • Mmr 7 months ago

          well you can if you sell yours and then buy. But if you hold yours now when market fall the one you hold will fall too. So logic don’t make sense. And millennials I don’t ever think they can afford anything even when it was cheaper. People who inverst for last 10 year was always Boomers. Toronto condo even 2015 was at least 50 percent cheaper did millennials bought those condos? No it was mostly investors who are older. I am talking about re sale condo by the way not pre con.

          • vnm 7 months ago

            All great points, but with a 25 % correction an 800k house falls to 600k and a 1.6M house falls to 1.2M
            So to upgrade now would be 800K but waiting it would be 600k, Any % based taxes, commissions would be proportionately lower.
            And they’ll be a compression effect … more expensive houses are going to take a greater hit as prices fall
            less expensive houses are going to come closer to Millennial affordability, and be relatively in greater demand.

          • Mmr 7 months ago

            That’s depends. You can still sell now and buy a bigger asset which is under valued or buy in an area that will go through more developments. Mean you can still make good money by buying asset in developing area. Real estate is also about locations. When you buy you can think what will happen in next 10 year. If lot of development in pipe line expect price gone up more then the places which is already developed.

          • vnm 7 months ago

            Yes, certainly another way to go.
            A neighbour of mine is trading up by swapping a big house for a smaller one plus some cash, just a few blocks away. They both get to stay in the neighbourhood they like. Save commission. Sounds like a great deal for both parties.

      • Loomis 7 months ago

        Ketchup Chips – You shouldn’t comment on this site providing “analysis for 6th graders” when your own grammatical skills are so far below 6th grade level. By 6th grade, most students know that the first word of a sentence is capitalized. They also know the difference between ‘there’ and ‘their’.

        You’re not fooling anyone. You’re a bitter indebted fool who is facing financial ruin because you thought the orgy of ever-appreciating real estate prices in GTA would never end.

        Owning a home does not make you an investor or entrepreneur. Once the bank forecloses on you, maybe you can go back and finish high school.

    • Bluetheimpala 7 months ago

      Thanks for dropping by bud. Don’t let the door hit you on your way out.

  • Russ 7 months ago

    2nd quarter of 2018 (Apr to June) will give a clearer picture of stress test and the mortgage stats. All the 90 to 120 pre-approval mortgage just before stress test kicked in on Jan 1 will be consumed by then. No, i don’t think people are that desperate to go to alternative lending for much higher interest rate. More rate hike will come in July and onwards. The Bank of Canada has to increase interest rate due to inflation. Prospective buyers need to realize that we are at beginning of housing correction. It is not a blip on the radar here. The correction is here to stay and buyers will be wise to delay their decision for at least a year.

    • vnm 7 months ago

      To put a number on the rather nebulous “it pays to be patient” , if the average price of a property tanks from 750k to 500k over 3 years, that’s 83,333.33 a year. Call it a nothing job, but it’s not a bad salary, 25k more than the average Torontonian makes, and no commute.

      • Russ 7 months ago

        Yes, the saving incurred by waiting at least 1 or 2 years to jump in is huge by anybody standard. Only the realtors/mainstream media and those who bought high want to keep this game going on. All prospective buyers out there, please take a step back and think about the savings by waiting at least 1 year.

      • Tommy 7 months ago

        That would be such a blessing. Prices are out of control. I bought an income property during the summer lull in 2017 and want to buy again but prices make no sense and a steep correction seems imminent.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    Ketchup Chips, It would seem that way. Funny enough we are actually only the platform and do not sell anything to the public! go figure…
    However, with the new rules and the new worldwide capitalization accounting rules the demand for private $$ will increase.

    • Alistair McLaughlin 7 months ago

      Mark, here are 12 potential clients for you just waiting your call:

      https://www.communityforfairness.ca/our-stories

      • ketchup chips 7 months ago

        keep renting kid.

        • Nacho Chips 7 months ago

          Hey Ketchup Chips.. slow your roll pal and get with the times. I’m renting right now and can guarantee I’ve made more money than you in real estate. Liquidated in 2016-2017 – now in cash and stocks. Depending of when you got into your condo, I’m guessing you won’t be losing too much money if you hold on to the dream, but I guarantee my roe post 2017 will dwarf yours .. especially with my nice head start.. thanks B20 + fair housing plan. #imwithalistair.

          • Mmr 7 months ago

            If you hold stocks it’s better liquidate. Once nafta fails Canadian stocks will be selling for penny. It will be garbage no one want to touch.

          • ketchup chips 7 months ago

            just by guaranteeing shows you got no money and are a bum.

          • Nacho Chips 7 months ago

            You are adorable Ketchup Chips. Thanks for brightening my day.

          • Moderator 7 months ago

            Normally we ban abusive commenters like Ketchup Chips immediately, but he seems to have established himself as the the facto village idiot. Of all things, we certainly don’t want to appear like cruel landlords.

          • ketchup chips 7 months ago

            moderator. goal of website is to keep people on longer. i accomplish that. people here stupid don’t understand game like you. you making money off of me. give me some dolla for my efforts.

      • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

        thanks, Alistair, however, we do not deal with the public we are the platform between Brokers and Lenders.

    • John 7 months ago

      Post bump for Alistair,

      Mark, here are 12 potential clients for you just waiting your call:

      https://www.communityforfairness.ca/our-stories

  • xelan 7 months ago

    Very valid reasons were provided previously by members but I just would like to sum it up:
    – We have 40% less sales in GTA so it’s not obvious to expect any spike in any lending including Credit Unions.
    – Article is misleading on the fact that Credit Unions don’t apply OSFI B-20. They don’t have to, but I have confirmation from my mortgage broker that as of Jan 2018 all credit unions except for one follow B-20 guidelines.
    – Media expected boost in credit union activity COMPARED TO THE BANKS. There is no comparison presented in this article therefore picture is incomplete.

    No reliable conclusions can be done as a result of this article, unfortunately.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    The reason is a new International Financial Accounting Standard called IFSR 9. Maybe one of the reasons for OFFSI changes?
    Australia also went through a similar government intervention period with their RE market.

    A good overview by PWC
    https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/audit-services/ifrs/publications/ifrs-9/ifrs-9-understanding-the-basics.pdf

  • Jimbo 7 months ago

    Anybody who thinks that borrowing more money at higher interest rate from credit unions at this point in time is good idea needs to wake up! The policies, Federal and Provincial, are clearly designed to induce a mild correction (10~20% reduction in Vancouver) to avoid bigger problems down the road. The only thing that sellers and buyers need to remember is that they should expect or pay at least 10% less than they would have a month ago going forward. If a seller is asking too much, a buyer, instead of going to credit union, should wait until the seller adjust his or her expectation.

    The market will go through adjustment period for next 10 months at least, followed by the market stabilizing at lower price point. A lot of sellers will have tough time accepting it. However smart investors should sell now at 10% lower price than they would have. If I were an agent, I would advise sellers and buyers at least 10% less in price as a fair market value, with the recover taking more than a few years.
    So the key is investors should stay away from the market in the next couple of years if not 3 years, until the market settles in. Many should never come back to real estate speculation again.

    • xelan 7 months ago

      It’s not that easy as our friends from Oakville mentioned who bought pre-construction houses. People buy new houses/condos with the idea that they going to sell their existing ones at a higher price or their new property value will grow. If you introduce 10% correction across the board a lot of people will be in trouble right away. So any real downturn should remove all speculation from the market and if it triggers a recession it will remove some valid homeowners too who simply can’t afford to keep their properties anymore.

  • Mark Cashin 7 months ago

    Grizley guys
    There is a tonne of info they are all privately traded companies and report their sales.

    • Grizzly Gus 7 months ago

      What I reallywould like to know is how much of the 208 billion in outstanding heloc debt has been used by do it yourself lenders to make loans to individuals that cannot get normal approval or help from mom and dad. I also assume the bank of mom and dad has gotten some of its liquidity from that 208 billion as well

  • Justin Thyme 7 months ago

    Credit Unions are even MORE conservative than banks are. They have to be VERY protective of their money.

    Most have used their own versions of enhanced stress tests for decades.

    • Loomis 7 months ago

      Justin Thyme – Your generalization that credit unions are more conservative than banks isn’t always the case. It depends entirely on the individual credit union. Credit unions have undergone a period of expansion and amalgamation here in MB and are behaving more and more like the big banks every day. Credit unions have a 38.7% share of mortgages in MB.

      • Justin Thyme 7 months ago

        In today’s market, they can be aggressive and STILL be conservative.

        No matter how big a Credit Union is, it can not come close to the billions in capital that the big banks have. It only takes a few bad mortgages to really seriously jeopardize a credit union. Even VanCity in Vancouver would be hard pressed to survive a spate of mortgage defaults without CMHC insurance.

  • vnm 7 months ago

    Our expectations has been so lowered by short sighted greed, courtesy of some we see occasionally darkening the walls around here, it makes one cynical. But they are just bad apples. About 1 in 30 males are sociopaths. They can’t help it, there is no cure. Interestingly, therapy makes them worse, it just teaches them how to be better sociopaths, and disguise it better.
    For example, Ketchup Chips obviously hasn’t had therapy, he’s a raging sociopath, and is instantly identifiable as such. Cashin clearly has sociopathic tendencies, but for the most part he manages to keep it contained. In cases like that you don’t know how deep it goes, and all you can do is be on your guard, and when it comes to any kind of business dealings avoid them like the plague.

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