The latest report from the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is out, and they’re already less than optimistic about 2017. The usually bullish industry organization said BC housing is anticipated to moderate, as affordability and government policy “limit the number of eligible buyers.” This is expected to bring down both prices and sales in Vancouver, and generally across the province.
Vancouver Real Estate Prices
The worst area in the projections was the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), where prices are expected to decline. Economists from the BCREA project the average benchmark price will drop 8.7% by the end of next year. This would bring the average home in the GVA down to $940,000. Great if you’re a buyer, a total nightmare if you’re a homeowner looking to sell next year. The drop works out to around $90,000, which is around $1730 a week. This is in contrast to the 14% increase we saw in the previous 12 months to November.
GVA Sales Decline
An interesting mixed indicator is the number of sales in the GVA, which are expected to decline. BCREA is expecting an 18.5% drop in sales to 34,000. This indicator is a bit of a wildcard since a decline in sales could be a sign of a drop in inventory. A drop in inventory is a large part of why price in BC real estate rose so quickly.
BC Real Estate
BCREA economists aren’t projecting a stellar 2017 for B.C. as a whole. The average price across the province is expected to drop 6.5% to $654,200. These Falling prices are expected to bring the number of sales down by 15.4%. All areas won’t be impacted equally, with Chilliwack, Vancouver, and Victoria expected to show moderate growth of 3.6%, 2.6%, and 2.1% respectively. The average is mostly weighed down by the significant drop expected in the GVA.
Keep in mind that the BCREA and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) are different organizations, with different outlooks. REBGV is generally more bullish, while BCREA is often more conservative with their numbers. It’ll be interesting to read if conservative with numbers means the same thing on the way down as it did in the way up.