Toronto real estate set a new mutli-year record, but not exactly one it wants to advertise. June numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) show a huge number of sellers are lining up with inventory, but buyers aren’t really there. Generally speaking, the market saw slowing price growth, a huge drop in sales, and multi-year highs of inventory.
Benchmark Prices Are Up, Average Sale Prices Are Down
The price of homes across the GTA remain high, but they definitely aren’t growing at the same rate as before the province’s cooling measures. The benchmark price of composite homes, that’s the price of a typical home with luxury bias removed, is now $810,700 – a 25.3% increase from the same time last year. In Toronto proper, that number was $829,500, a 24.22% increase. While the number is in no way crashing, that’s a conservative increase by Toronto measures.
One of the more interesting things being discussed is the decline in average sale price. The average sale price for June was $793,915, a massive -8.10% decline from the month prior. Although that’s still a 6.3% increase from last year. Worth noting this is the first time since 2015 that the average price saw two monthly declines in a row. Average price can decline for a lot of reason, most notably a shift to lower priced units. Looking at the total dollar volume however, gives some additional insights. Dollar volume dropped to $6.33 billion for the month, a 33% decline from the same month last year. So it’s clear that less buyers showed up to the party this month.
Toronto Sales Are Down 37.3%
The number of sales across the GTA are on the slide. There were 7,974 sales, a 37.3% decline from the same month last year. Toronto proper saw 3,139 of those sales, which is a 31.4% decline from the same time last year. The bulk of the declines were seen with more expensive detached units, where sales declined by 45%. The least declines were seen in the condo segment, where sales declined 23.4%.
Toronto Listings Are Up 15.9%
Inventory has been building from historic lows, and that trend continued through June. New listings hit 19,614, a 15.9% increase from the same time last year. Active listings, which have the tendency to be artificially low, hit a multi-year high. June ended with 19,680 active listings, a 59.6% increase from the same time last year. This is in addition to an estimated 10,090 terminated listings, another multi year high. Good news if you’re a buyer, there’s plenty of selection. Bad news if you’re seller—your buyer has plenty of selection so you may need to be more competitive with pricing.
The market was showing signs of softening demand before the provincial government rolled out the Fair Housing Plan. However, new rules do tend to impact buyer psychology, and stimulate a wait and see response. Vancouver real estate experienced a similar lull after the BC government introduced cooling measures, before resuming hitting all-time highs just a few months after. Will Toronto take the same path? We’ll have to wait and see.
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