Toronto Real Estate Prices Slide From Peak High, As Growth Rapidly Cools

Toronto real estate sales are almost back to last year’s levels, but that isn’t helping prices. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows June sales volumes were down just a few points from last year. The increase in sales wasn’t enough to stop prices from slipping lower though. This is the second consecutive month prices have slipped since the pandemic began.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Fall From Peak For A Second Month

Toronton real estate prices moved lower from the peak, but are still up from last year. TRREB’s composite benchmark reached $863,700 in June, up 8.17% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $952,000, up 7.66% from last year. Both benchmarks peaked in April, and have moved lower since.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price

The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.

Source: TRREB. Better Dwelling.

Despite a relatively busy market, price growth is slowing very quickly. Both TRREB’s 8.17%, and the City of Toronto’s 7.66% year-over-year increases in June are smaller than the month before. The rate of growth is still very high, but has been dropping fast since the pandemic started.

Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change

The annual percent change of TRREB’s benchmark price for all home types.

Source: TRREB. Better Dwelling.

The average sale price ripped higher, as buying behavior shifted to more expensive segments. TRREB’s average sale price reached $930,869 in June, up 11.9% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $1,022,138, up 11.65% from last year. Cheaper segments like condos plummeted in volume, while suburban detached homes climbed to make up most of the difference.

Greater Toronto Average Sale Price Change

The annual percent change of the average sale price of all homes.

Source: TRREB, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Real Estate Sales Almost At Last Year’s Levels

Greater Toronto real estate sales are lower, but are much weaker in the city. TRREB reported 8,701 home sales in June, down just 1.4% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto represented just 2,830 of those sales, down 11.59% over the same period. Last year’s sales volumes were weak compared to historical standards. However, there wasn’t a pandemic last year, so this is impressive volume. As previously stated, most of the ground in the sales surge came from the 905.

Greater Toronto June Home Sales

The total home sales across TREB by year, for the month of June.

Source: TRREB, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Is Seeing More New Sellers, Mostly In The City

New listings are starting to rise quickly, especially in the City of Toronto. There were 16,153 new listings in June, up 2.13% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto represented 6,144 of those new listings, up 13.76% from last year. Despite the sudden influx of new sellers, total inventory is still lower than last year.

Greater Toronto Sales To New Listings

The number newly listed units per month, in contrast to sales.

Source: TRREB, Better Dwelling.

The total number of homes for sale, or active listings, is actually lower than last year. TRREB reported 14,001 active listings in June, down 28.76% from the same month last year. The City of Toronto represented 5,331 of the active listings, down 9.75% from last year. Compared to historic numbers, active listings are still low, despite the explosion in new listings. However, this can change if new listings continue at this breakneck speed.

Greater Toronto June Active Listings

The total of active home listings across TREB by year, for the month of June.

Source: TRREB, Better Dwelling.

The Greater Toronto real estate market is still tight in terms of inventory. Sales are back to nearly last year’s levels, which weren’t particularly impressive, but not a pandemic month either. The CMHC had previously forecasted prices would fall later this year, as more sellers came to market. June saw new listings rise higher than last year’s levels, especially in the City. This growth in sellers is likely behind the dip in prices, a dynamic most forecasts predicted we would see.

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  • Reply
    Marc 4 years ago

    Toronto condos. Every agent that does investment is telling their good clients to list, and rebuy at a later date.

    • Reply
      Trader Jim 4 years ago

      New condo projects are looking even worse. Some at 10% down. Some as low as 5% now, and 5% in two years.

      It’s hard to sell a condo being built in 5 years as an investment, while rents are falling and people are reconsidering if they want to live in hyper dense cities.

  • Reply
    Ahmed 4 years ago

    Rural properties, especially cottages have a lot of interest. Remote working is enabling people to live their best life, without being crammed into a tiny condo.

    I don’t know what that means for Toronto prices, but it certainly puts a gap on price growth if people can just relocate.

    • Reply
      zalzon 4 years ago

      The remote working thing might work for some professions, but not as well or not at all for others.
      Also, if the job can be remotely done from a cottage, it can also be remotely done at lower cost from overseas.

      I’m not sure how far the remote working argument goes.

  • Reply
    Your Friendly Local Realtor®️ 4 years ago

    Prices will rise forever. Rich people don’t even need people to live in the city.

    They’ll just keep paying, because they’re insane and don’t understand basic logic. So middle class people, but them all quick before the rich people!

    Don’t ask why the wealthy seller is disposing of their rental property either.

  • Reply
    Truth 4 years ago

    If a pandemic and it’s economic effects won’t cause a housing crash then pretty much nothing else will. Our economy has become far too dependent on housing and it’s related industries so much so that our Government will implement whatever policy changes necessary to prevent a crash like the 2008 crash in the U.S. Essentially, housing has become to big too fail. If you can afford it just buy.

    • Reply
      alvi 4 years ago

      Much higher interest rates will do the trick and the bond market does not seem to be signalling that for years to come

      • Reply
        Truth 4 years ago

        You are correct high interest rates could buckle the housing market if there was no intervention by the powers that be. However, there is nothing stopping them from implementing rule changes or loan modification programs that can stretch out existing amortizations to 40 years or beyond for existing mortgages to prevent default. They have the capability to do this by insuring banks against losses at the expense of the tax payer. These days home ownership is more a function of the payment one can afford to pay rather than what one can afford to pay off. System is rigged to not crash. So buy if you can afford it

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