Toronto

Toronto New Condo Prices Rise, While Detached Losses Get Bigger

Greater Toronto new home sales are picking up, but buyers are mixed on prices. Altus Group data shows new home sales across Greater Toronto made a double digit climb in July. Even with the rise in sales, trade volumes are still light this year. Prices followed with a mixed move – condo prices accelerating gains, and detached prices falling further.

New Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Fall, While Condos Rise

Greater Toronto new home prices are falling, except in the condo apartment segment. The benchmark price of a new single-family home fell to $1,091,727 in July, down 4.5% from last year. The decline works out to ~$8,000 lower than the month before, and the rate of decline increased from 3%. New single-family homes have been trending lower in price in for a few months now.

New condo apartments got a boost last month, with prices even accelerating gains. The new condo benchmark reached $838,824 in July, up 8.3% from last year. The increase is a sudden acceleration of the 12-month growth, which was up 3.9% the month before. Fast rising condo prices and a sluggish detached market is also being seen in home resales.

Toronto New Home Sales Are Flat, But The Suburbs Are Soaring

New home sales jumped higher in Greater Toronto, but the rise was mostly in the 905. New home sales reached 2,863 units in July, up 35.11% from last year. Breaking that down, single family homes represented 566 of the sales, up 135% from last year. Condo apartments represent the remaining 2,297 units, up 22.24% from last year. Further refining that number by region, we see most of the bump in sales in the suburbs – not the City of Toronto.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total June new home sales in Greater Toronto.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

New home sales in the City of Toronto were basically flat last month. There were 1,568 sales in July, up 0.19% from the same month last year. Breaking it down, there were 46 new single-family homes sold, up 475% from last year. Condo apartments represent the other 1,522 sales, down 2.24% from last year. The single-family increase would be impressive if it wasn’t such a low volume. Most important, this highlights most growth is coming from the suburbs.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Total new home sales in Greater Toronto for June, by region.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales Rise, But Still A Slow Year

Even though Greater Toronto had a bump in new home sales, it is still shaping up to be a slow year. Year to date (YTD) there was 19,949 new home sales at the end of July, up 41.39% compared to last year. The number, while a significant improvement, is still 24.17% below the 5-year median for the period. New home sales are on track to print the fourth slowest year since the Great Recession.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales YTD

Total YTD new home sales in Greater Toronto for June.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto New Home Inventory Rises Over 16%

Greater Toronto has a lot more inventory kicking around. There were 17,282 new homes for sale in July, up 16.89% from last year. That’s about 121.53% more inventory seen during July 2017. New home inventory is up a little from last year, but up a whack from two years ago.

New home sales increased faster than inventory, improving the sales to active listings ratio (SALR). The SALR hit 15.57% in July, compared to 14.33% during the same month last year. The market is a seller’s market when the ratio is 20% or higher, and prices are expected to rise. Below 12% is a buyer’s market, and prices are expected to fall. Between 12% and 20% is balanced, and the market is considered priced for demand. By this measure, the market would be considered balanced.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales To Active

The ratio of sales to active listings for new homes in Greater Toronto, for the month of June.

Source: Altus Group, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto new homes saw higher sales, and mixed price movements. Sales increased, but it’s worth noting the rise was almost entirely in the suburbs. Prices increased for condo apartments, with the 12-month gain even accelerating. However, detached homes continued to see prices fall – with losses getting larger.

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8 Comments

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  • Reply
    Travis Hunter 3 weeks ago

    That’s almost a 30% haircut on detached homes. Yowza.

  • Reply
    X 3 weeks ago

    Hearing a good number of projects are being held until after the new government incentive for new homes is rolled out. Should see a temporary drop in inventory, a bump in sales in September due to a “shortage,” then projects priced up the amount of the government incentive. Good ole’ Canada.

  • Reply
    Marc 3 weeks ago

    US GDP growth forecast drops to 2.0%, from 3.1% earlier this year. Growth is slowing, fast.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/us-gdp-q2-second-reading-up-2point0percent-in-line-with-expectations.html

  • Reply
    Snarky 3 weeks ago

    Today for the first time I saw a home listing offering the buyer to assume the mortgage. Things may be worse than they seem. I have also come across listings where the seller is offering financing and/or to rent property for x amount.

    • Reply
      Joseph 3 weeks ago

      That’s pretty nuts to think they’d do that and seems like a great deal… until you find out how big their mortgage payments were.

      Speaking of, any word on the size of the mortgage payments in that particular case?

    • Reply
      Grim Reaper 3 weeks ago

      If a property is for sale and there’s a mortgage takeover potential in the listing that is a signal to negotiate a significant discount on the price.

  • Reply
    Snarky 3 weeks ago

    W4559333 that is the listing I saw today to assume the mortgage. No, I’m not in real estate but an looking to purchase.

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