Toronto Detached Real Estate Sales Surge, As Inventory Drops To Lowest Level In Years

Toronto detached real estate buyers were out in full force last month. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) data shows detached home sales made a big increase in December. The rise in sales combined with the lowest inventory in years, sent price growth back to 2017 levels.

Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Are Rising

The price of a typical detached home is moving higher across Greater Toronto. TREB reported the detached benchmark reached $961,100 in December, up 5.8% from a year before. The City of Toronto is naturally higher at $1,157,100, up 5.44% over the same period. This marks an acceleration in growth, not seen in years.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The 12-month rate of growth is rising quickly, but prices are still  below peak. December’s 5.8% increase marks the seventh consecutive month of acceleration. The rate of growth is now at the highest level since October 2017. Prices are still down more than 8% from the May 2017 peak.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto’s median sale price for detached homes is rising even faster. TREB’s median sale price reached $880,000 in December, up 7.32% from a year before. The City of Toronto hit $1,032,000, up 17.80% from a year before.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price

The average sale price of a detached house in the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The average sale price is also climbing fast, potentially indicating a rise in luxury. TREB reported an average sale price of $1,052,081 in December, up 11.6% from a year before. The City of Toronto saw it rise to $1,263,357, an increase of 19.5% from last year. The average isn’t adjusted for quality or size, but is helpful for understanding dollar flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price Change

The 12 month percent change of average sale price across across TREB.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Detached Real Estate Sales Back To Normal Levels

Toronto detached sales made a big increase from last year, placing volumes back to normal. TREB reported 1,984 sales in December, up 24.77% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 465 of those sales, up 36.76% from last year. Even though this is very large growth from last year, it’s only 0.41% below the 5-year median for the month.

Toronto Detached December Sales

The total number of Greater Toronto detached sales made in the month of December.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Detached New Listings Fall Over 20%

Not a lot of people were willing to sell their detached home in Greater Toronto last month. TREB reported just 1,627 new listings in December, down 22.15% from a year before. The City of Toronto represented 366 of those listings, down 2.91% from last year. The winter is already a slow time for new listings, but this was exceptionally slow – mostly due to the 905.

Toronto Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

More sales and fewer new listings wore down detached inventory by a lot. TREB reported 4,729 active listings in December, down 31.66% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 919 of those listings, down 28.86% from last year. The abrupt decline in inventory led to the lowest levels since March 2017.

Toronto Active Detached Listings

The total number of detached listings available.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto’s detached real estate market is seeing a rise in sales and a sharp decline in inventory. This predictably is bringing a lot of price growth back, sending the rate to levels not seen since 2017. The decline in inventory was very sharp though, and only printed one month this low. It’ll be hard for these levels to persist, which are almost as low as when the detached market saw a massive price boom.

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  • Reply
    Jason Chau 4 years ago

    Anecdotal data point. Hearing a lot of people say they’re waiting to sell, because they can get more money once it rises above pre-B-20 levels.

    Not sure how many people are willing to do negative caps and for how long, but there’s a real belief because the last decline wasn’t a “big crash,” they don’t there’s much risk in seeing a drop vs the potential rewards.

    I’m at the paradoxical moment where I’m thinking, if I sell today – I might not make as much, but I won’t have to pay as much for the next house.

    • Reply
      Trader Jim 4 years ago

      Like cannabis stocks. It doesn’t matter if you made 300%, you won’t sell until you lose 10%.

  • Reply
    Jamie 4 years ago

    Toronto active listings are already up. Tight market, but December looks like a bit of a blip. Certainly did get the ball rolling for price increases though, didn’t it?

  • Reply
    Asterix1 4 years ago

    RE industry can spin their numbers all they want!

    Average sales prices of a detached has been going nowhere for 3.5 years! That’s not even counting inflation, initial closing costs and selling costs!

    Detached prices in GTA have been falling for a while. The sales mix has kept the average on a flat-line instead of a sharp drop as first time buyers have been pushed aside. Real prices of homes (comparing apples to apples) will keep falling for the next yew years in GTA.

  • Reply
    Holton 4 years ago

    This is just another sign the government is useless. Infact we should implement a heavy taxation on none primary residence. Temp ban on none Canadian purchase of real estate. Ban temp residency (ie people with student visa) to buy homes.

  • Reply
    cyrus 4 years ago

    You are fighting on a none major reason for the short-fall of the houses in Ontario.
    The main reason is that there is not enough home for different buyers. The asking is more than the offering otherwise everything else is okay. As long as the local government does not change the zoning of the city area to a higher density we have this issue. There is not enough land in Ontario to change to construction . we are already ruined some of the forests and farmland for these purposes.

    • Reply
      Mortgage Guy 4 years ago

      This comment implies a very poor understanding of how zoning impacts prices. Ask any professional, and they’ll help you understand this.

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