Toronto

Toronto Condo Sales Fall Back To 2015 Levels, Biggest Price Drop Since Summer 2017

Greater Toronto’s condo mania is subsiding, deflating some of the pressure on prices. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show the price of a typical condo made an abrupt decline in January. Even with the decline, price are still much higher than last year. The month also saw the fewest sales in years, accompanied by climbing inventory.

Toronto Condo Prices Are Up Over 8% From Last Year

Toronto condos fell on a monthly basis, but still made a big climb form last year. TREB reported the price of a typical condo reached $506,900 in January, up 8.04% from last year. The City of Toronto proper reached $537,900, up 9.08% from last year. These are lofty gains, although they are tapering.

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price

The price of a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Toronto condo prices made a monthly move last month worth mentioning. The typical condo price dropped $2,800 across TREB, and declined $3,100 in the City of Toronto. This is the largest monthly drop since July 2017 and August 2017, respectively. Before your agent says “it’s the season,” the benchmark is seasonally adjusted. The decline is also much larger than we’ve seen recently.

On an annual basis, price gains continued deceleration. TREB’s 8.04% annual gain is 59% lower than the previous year. The City of Toronto’s annual gain is 58% lower than the annual gain made in the previous year. Even with the drop, annual price increases are still much higher than typical.

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price Change

The annual percent change of price, for a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The median sale price of a condo reflected a similar trend. TREB reported a median sale price of $485,000 in January, up 7.77% from last year. The City of Toronto came in at $529,900, up 8.14% from last year. An interesting statistical phenomenon occurred here – the TREB median was the same for 2 months. That means half of condos sold above that price, and half sold below… two month in a row. This follows a similar lack of movement from September to November as well.

Toronto Median Condo Sale Price

The median sale price of a condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The average sale price of condos in Toronto also made a climb. TREB reported an average sale price of $548,176 in January, up 7.9% from last year. The City of Toronto reached $591,444, up 8.8% from last year. The average is showing nearly double the growth of the next closest segment of housing in the city.

Toronto Average Condo Sale Price

The average sale price of condo apartments in Toronto, and the suburbs.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condo Sales See Fewest January Sales Since 2015

Toronto condo sales are falling back to pre-frenzy levels. TREB reported 1,238 sales in January, down 2.4% from last year. The City of Toronto fell to 840 sales, down 6.3% from last year. This is the slowest January we’ve seen since 2015, before interest rates were last cut to avoid a recession.

Toronto Condo Sales Vs. New Listings

The number of condo sales, vs newly listed condos per month in Toronto.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condo Inventory Rises Over 2%

The number of new listings of condos for sale climbed across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 2,521 new listings in January, up 12.59% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,716 new listings, up 13.41% from last year. This helped to push total inventory for sale higher across the board.

Total inventory is swelling higher than it has been for awhile. TREB reported 2,657 active listings in January, up 2.54% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,738 of those listings, up 5.46% from last year. This is the highest level of inventory for January since 2016. Even with the rise, it still needs a pretty big boost to match 2016 levels.

Toronto Active Condo Listings

The number of condo listings available for sale in Toronto.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto’s condo market made huge price gains from last year, but sales are continuing to fall. That combined with rising inventory is continuing to cool the pace of gains. The thing that really stood out however was the monthly decline, which was so large it matched the impact of a policy change.

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12 Comments

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  • Reply
    M 7 months ago

    > ” interesting statistical phenomenon”

    I think you mean a statistical impossibility.

  • Reply
    Katia 7 months ago

    Whomp whomp. Benchmark back to October 2018 prices. Average at February 2018. If you don’t see the top, you’re going to get eaten by it.

  • Reply
    Gregory 7 months ago

    I prefer to use price per square foot — helps to adjust for the fact that the average condo size keeps shrinking.

    • Reply
      John 7 months ago

      I disagree. The smaller a condo gets the less desirable it is and the higher a discount I expect for accepting such a small space.

      Cost per square foot completely disregards the desirability of certain square footage. I’d expect 900 to 1100 square feet to catch the highest premium per square foot in price because it can check all the boxes for a family. No Murphy bed’s required.

      • Reply
        Big Condo 7 months ago

        My condo is 2,000 Sq. Ft., in midtown, near subway, walkable ravine, desirability?

      • Reply
        ID 7 months ago

        You wrong – differ sizes has differ desirability.
        All depends on “household size”.
        My estimations (approx 400 sqft per person) –
        1 person – 0-400 sqft.
        2 persons – 401-800 sqft.
        3 persons – 801-1200 sqft.
        4…
        5…
        and so on.
        What do we get this way?
        1. Bachelor/Studio
        2. 1+1 or 2 bdr.
        3. 2+1 or 3 bdr. or townhouse.
        4. Detached.
        Every class has own level of desirability.
        Also price per sqft can NORMALIZE prices in every class not including “Location! Location! Location!” giving real benchmarking.
        Without that all institutions manipulate with average, median etc. and other BS distorting real picture so we have detached $$/sqft << condo $$/sqft which is TOTAL BS and ABSURD considering continuous scream about LAND PRICE IS GOING UP (compare detached and condo even including infrastructure).
        Lie, Big Lie and Statistics (from TREB and others).

  • Reply
    Asterix1 7 months ago

    I’m getting all these ads for mortgage brokers, real estate agents and the lot on this site..

    Pretty funny since there is no chance that I would contact any of these clueless and dishonest thiefs!

    Buying any type of property (used/new) in GTA/Vancouver presently makes zero sense! Worst move anyone could do…

  • Reply
    vnm 7 months ago

    Lemmings don’t actually throw themselves off cliffs — the so-called “lemming instinct” is a myth, based on a 1958 Disney nature film, where several dozen lemmings were transported to Alberta, where they don’t live naturally, and forced over a cliff edge while the cameras rolled. For this fabrication become folklore, the film-makers received an Academy Award.
    Lemmings are actually that crazy, but it appears people are.
    I wonder what prizes TREB & Co. will be awarding themselves as the financial equivalent happens to condo buyers. There will be raging debates: Did they jump, or were they pushed?

    • Reply
      vnm 7 months ago

      oops … lemmings are NOT actually that crazy …

    • Reply
      @xelan_gta 7 months ago

      Lol, I guess you are right. Paying 20% pre-construction premium price compared to resale in order to get $500-$1000 negative cash flow “investment” in 4 years – that is definitely a solid logic 🙂
      And that’s a typical investment scenario today in GTA.

      • Reply
        questionguy 7 months ago

        THIS.

        if you’re losing hundreds of dollars each month, that’s not an investment, it’s a liability

  • Reply
    David Tan 7 months ago

    Do you have charts for 1989-1992?

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