Toronto

Toronto Condo Prices Slip From All-Time Highs, Weakest November Sales Since 2013

Toronto condo prices fell from an all-time high. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show a minor price decline for condo apartments in November. Annual price gains still remain very large, although they continued to decelerate. The big story this month is the board reported the fewest condo sales for November since 2013.

Toronto Condo Prices Slip From All-Time High

The price of a typical condo apartment in Toronto slipped from all-time highs. TREB reported the condo benchmark reached $506,700 in November, up 9.35% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $536,500, up 10.3% from last year. Both numbers are just off of all-time highs printed in October.

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price

The price of a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The month-over-month decline did result in continued tapering of annual price growth. This is the third consecutive month annual price gains decelerated across TREB, and fourth in the City of Toronto. The monthly decline isn’t mega important by itself, but it was worth mentioning. We haven’t seen a larger monthly decline since August 2017.

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price Change

The annual percent change of price, for a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The median sale price for a condo in Greater Toronto held the exact same price point for a third month. The median sale price of a condo across TREB was $495,000 in November, up 10% from last year. The City of Toronto median sale price was $530,000, up 9.27% from last year. Medians do not have qualitative or quantitative adjustments, like the benchmark. Consequently, they make more abrupt movements from month-to-month. Except they didn’t over the past few months.

Toronto Median Condo Sale Price

The median sale price of a condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The average sale price of a Toronto condo made more conservative gains. TREB reported an average sale price of $556,723 in November, up 7.5% from last year. The City of Toronto average reached $595,678, up 7.0% from last year. Average prices aren’t great for telling you how much you’ll pay. Instead, you should use these numbers to understand the direction of dollar flow.

Toronto Average Condo Sale Price

The average sale price of condo apartments in Toronto, and the suburbs.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condo Sales Fall 14%, Weakest November Since 2013

Condo sales fell across Greater Toronto last month. TREB report 1,891 sales in November, down 14% from the month before. The City of Toronto represented 1,370 of those sales, down 14.2% compared to the same month last year. This is the weakest November for sales since 2013.

Toronto Condo Sales Vs. New Listings

The number of condo sales, vs newly listed condos per month in Toronto.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condo Inventory Falls Over 8%

New listings for Toronto condos fell last month. TREB reported 2,710 new listings in November, down 16.43% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,928 of those new listings, down 15.32% from last year. The decline in new listings helped to bring total inventory lower than the same month last year.

The total number of active listings of condos for sales dropped in Toronto. TREB saw 3,299 active listings in November, down 8.81% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,167 of those listings, down 7.98% from last year. Inventory is just over 16% higher than November 2016.

Toronto Active Condo Listings

The number of condo listings available for sale in Toronto.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Overall, Toronto condo prices are still making lofty gains compared to last year. However, it is worth noting the trend of annual price appreciation is tapering fast. Sales numbers are dropping for resales, but inventory is still relatively tight. That said, condo resales are only part of the condo picture. New condo sales are not included in these numbers, and builders are increasingly sitting on inventory.

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18 Comments

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  • Reply
    Trevor 9 months ago

    Re: median price. How does the market sell exactly half of condos above a price point, and half below… for 3 months in a row?

    • Reply
      Smaug 9 months ago

      Take the median price each month and average it over 3 months. Voila – you have a 3 month moving average of the median price.

      Or, you could take every sale for the 3 month period, and find the median (the pricing mid-point where half of all sales sold for less and half for more). Though I believe they use the first method.

      • Reply
        Statistical Anomaly 9 months ago

        You didn’t address the question.

        It’s almost impossible to have a median sales price to be basically the same value several months in a row. Someone / some people are doctoring the data and / or reports.

    • Reply
      Statistical Anomaly 9 months ago

      This is an excellent question. It’s a statistical anomaly. How exactly do you get a median number of almost the exact same value even though they are different datasets. We aren’t talking about average after all. Strange times … Believe the reports at your own peril.

  • Reply
    Trader Jim 9 months ago

    We see the real fireworks set off when price appreciation falls below 7.85%, and 40% of condo investors that are negative yield realize that they’re paying more in mortgage interest and subsidizing someone’s rent to own that sweet investment.

  • Reply
    Mark Gold 9 months ago

    I don’t know what everyone’s complaining about. A 10% gain, followed by a 10% gain would put right where we are today. That’s pretty f-in good.

    • Reply
      Ethan Wu 9 months ago

      JFC. No, a 10% drop would put you back to April 2017. That would also be a very small drop considering the increase.

      Look to Manhattan, a city MORE dense than Toronto, anchoring a GDP the size of all of Canada…in a single city. Real home prices dropped 16% during their last correction, which is about 21% in nominal terms. That would put you back at 2016 numbers.

      Which doesn’t seem that bad, until you see the opportunity cost you just made. You see, a correction isn’t a single year thing, it’s a looong process. Manhattan took 4 years to bottom, and another 2 years to rise again. Toronto took 6 years to bottom, and 22 years to recover during the last correction.

      So you bought in 2018, it drops to 2016 value in 2 years. You could have that difference in a risk free GIC and got 3% per year, *2. So your opportunity cost is now over 6% on just the loss. Now do the math on how much you lose over a 6 year Manhattan style correction, subtract your servicing costs, and TMI.

  • Reply
    Just Curious 9 months ago

    It would be great if prices would go back down to 2016 prices in two years. Does anyone really believe that could actually happen?

    • Reply
      Geronimo 9 months ago

      No. Everyone wants to live in Toronto. It is one of the greatest cities in the world. Have you ever been to Manhatten, Hong Kong, Sydney, London? They don’t have anything on Toronto, which is why they experience deep corrections and Toronto never will.

      🙂

      • Reply
        Ian 9 months ago

        We’ll also ignore that New York reached its pricing cap, and prices are falling without any fundamental deterioration now.

        • Reply
          JNT 9 months ago

          Agreed! Also would like to point out that those weird tiny condos you’ve got in Toronto where you’ve no choice but to put your couch in the kitchen and TV on your stove, they aren’t a thing people get excited to purchase in NYC. People who buy those are slumlords and the renters are artists and actors desperate to make it big in NYC so they put up with it. Here though…. what’s the point of living in the box owned by a slumlord? To be a Broadway star? No. To be a breakthrough artist? No. To become a famous comedian and write for the Daily Show? No. To land your dream of being an anchor on BNN? OH, OKAY. EXCITING TIMES.

          When the dust settles on this housing nonsense people are going to wonder why they are forking over 75% their paycheck to live in something the size of a bathtub and they won’t be able to rationalize it with their dreams of fame and fortune. Not to mention what the condition of those will be in 5-10 years.

          If you own one of those crap condos and think you’re gonna make a killing off it, take it from this New Yorker…You’re a schmuck!

          • The Wiz 9 months ago

            you are smoking your lunch, prices are not falling in Manhattan.

  • Reply
    DB 9 months ago

    I fear it will be much worse…the money is just not there right now and the market correction will only stop when it makes sense to the majority consumers who think it’s ok to jump back in..to this ying there is a yang and the feverish shaking of the tree has begun and now its time to see who falls off.

  • Reply
    JNT 9 months ago

    Well now look what we have here:

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-condo-boom-likely-to-settle-in-2019-developers-1.1185088

    even developers are saying the condo frenzy in TO is over. Obviously they have an interest in saying this publicly- I’m look at the 10% inflation on building costs.

    • Reply
      Pookie 9 months ago

      Developers always seem to quote supply and demand, but always forget it applies to them as well. Construction costs are higher than normal, because they’re building much more than normal. When prices collapse, and 50% of condo buyers that are investors stop buying, they won’t be building as much.

  • Reply
    Bluetheimpala 9 months ago

    https://www.zolo.ca/brampton-real-estate/72-beaconsfield-avenue?utm_source=zolo&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=new-listing

    There are no pics but I see a fence and bin (ie. construction) and the shot was clearly not taken recently. So low $700s for a 4+1 with 3 bedrooms…I live by feeds since I’m a dummy and it is free and easy. Go back. See what something similar would be listed for 3 months ago. Tick tock.BD4L.

    • Reply
      neo 9 months ago

      Blue,

      It was sold for $487,000 in 2014. It was sold conditionally a couple days ago.

  • Reply
    Cat 9 months ago

    Still way to much for that house.you pushing real estate now( blue.)

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