Oxford Economics now sees a moderate recession after the Bank of Canada now needs more aggressive rate hikes due to persistent inflation.
Canada’s M1+, a narrow measure of its money supply, is seeing growth fall at a rate that almost always precedes a recession.
Greater Toronto real estate prices continued to fall in August, with the cost of a typical home now back to October 2021-levels.
Canada’s economy was a little less dependent on real estate in the last quarter, but still nearly 30% more dependent than the US in 2006.
Canada’s second-largest bank is the latest to forecast declining real estate prices, but the good news is they don’t see a deep recession.
RBC quarterly filings reveal the bank is seeing its baseline expectations for Canadian real estate prices erode even further.
Canada’s major real estate markets are back to a “balanced” market and can head into a buyers’ market if things don’t firm soon.
Canadian HELOC debt is climbing at the fastest rate in nearly a decade, despite rising interest rates designed to cool borrowing.
Canadian mortgage borrowing might be slower but even slower is a breakneck speed as the overstimulated market tries to calm.
Canadian real estate entered a bear market as higher rates killed excess demand, and BMO sees things getting worse in the coming months.