Canadians are packing up for greener pastures, and that doesn’t mean Toronto to Calgary. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data for Q3 2024 shows a sharp uptick for emigration, the process of residents leaving to settle permanently in another country. The third quarter is typically big, but this one was one of the largest in years. In fact, the quarterly outflow is the 5th largest since Canada formalized its immigration system back in 1967.
What Is Emigration?
Today we’re looking at Canada’s emigration outflows. Emigrants are the reverse of immigrants—Canadians that are leaving to settle somewhere else permanently.
Policymakers typically ignore this number in favor of net emigration, which is the balance of flow. We call this the human capital livestock approach—it doesn’t matter what the person does or why they’re leaving, they just want more than less. This is problematic for a lot of reasons, but the biggest is the fact they’re not worried about retention.
A sustained increase can be related to an erosion in quality of life. Those returning aren’t necessarily at the same part of their career or contribute differently to the economy—losing a prime aged worker and gaining a retiree isn’t quite the same.
Those returning may also remember the country differently, and not know the factors driving people away. That may result in those same people leaving at a later date. Failing to figure out why people are leaving, or at a faster rate, can result in ignoring damage that may become irreparable by the time it’s addressed. Risk happens fast.
There’s also the issue that we now understand that Canada doesn’t have comprehensive exit data. The country doesn’t consider people have left until they formally declare their absence, resulting in overestimating the immigrants that stayed by roughly 1 in 6 people for at least 30 years. Net flows are of little consolation if they underestimate the outflows.
Canadians Are Fleeing At One Of The Fastest Rates On Record
Canadian emigration had been on a steady climb over the past few years. The volume saw quarterly growth of 11.1% to 29,100 people in Q3 2024. That’s 3% higher than last year, with Q3 typically the biggest quarter of the year.
Even for the third quarter, this volume was unusually large. It marks the largest volume since Q3 2019, seemingly picking up from where it left off. Outside of 2016 to 2019, Canada hasn’t seen more Q3 emigrants since 1967. In other words, it was the fifth largest 3rd quarter for Canadians to flee the country since the country introduced Immigration Regulations. Those regulations banned immigration based on race and introduced a points system to prefer those who presented higher quantifiable skills and values to the country.
In short, the recent trend is an outlier that Canada hasn’t seen in a friggin’ long time.
Good article but glances over the fact of who is leaving because there is no appetite to talk about it and doesn’t fit a narrative. Anecdotes are not a good way to make decisions but I know lots of well educated highly productive people that want to leave because there isn’t any incentive to then staying. Can’t start a family/buy a house even with a gross income >$200k so why stay here.
It feels like our Federal government has no idea who’s in Canada, how many temporary visa holders and fake international students are here seems to be a mystery. Now we’ll have to deal with 100’s of thousands on expiring Visa’s who will need to be tracked down when they fail to leave. These low quality “migrants” are pushing down the standard and will likely cause many to leave.
Guaranteed the majority of emigrants, are immigrants with Canadian passports. Or people with dual citizenship.
It’s because we’re watching the financialization of housing, though a global issue, but with the “population growth” agenda and literal rent seeking which drags down the Canadian quality of life.
Why would anyone in Canada live like the poor in a crowded 3rd world slum, but pay Manhattan prices for the privilege?
And another factor is that the rule of law is becoming like 3rd world countries because the local police like TPS turn a blind eye on hijacking’s, theft and organized crime, while persecuting bloggers and people who turn on a no turn lane.
Generally, people leave when they believe that they can have a significantly better life elsewhere. That is why people are leaving Los Angeles. The reason is known. Years of a corrupt pro-developer pro-densification regime has made owning a home in Los Angeles prohibitive. The outflow was among family millennials because they saw:
(1) If they could afford a single family home, the mortgage would be exorbitant because corruption had inflated purchase prices far, far above true market value. EX: My house should be worth $450,000.00, but in LA it’s listed at $1.5Million
(2) If they rented, by retirement they would have zero equity as renters never build equity. Instead, they would face ever increasing rent as their income remained fixed
(3) Services were worse and worse, but the city denied that anything was wrong. It refused to provide proper infrastructure until the Palisades burned down because the city had refused to build the underground infrastructure to support the fire hydrants. Thus, the same lack of infrastructure responsible for the Bel Air in 1961 was a substantial factor in 2025.
(4) As midlle class left LA, businesses had left Los Angeles. Thus, one could get a great job elsewhere in the country where they could buy a detached home with a nice yard, a place of the dog and kids, and decent schools.
In Los Angeles, excessive density increased prices, drove out productive citizens and started Los Angeles on its decline into homelessness, crime, and despair.
and we all know the EXACT same phenomena is infesting Canada and Toronto and Vancouver in particular. The results as highly predictable and virtually inevitable. It is an unfolding tragedy.
Sell your shack for a million – move somewhere nice & warm where you can live like a king on the interest & dividends…the question is why hasn’t everyone left yet? 🤔
Indeed!
Not hard to figure out people don’t want to live in a country where you have to decide to eat or pay heating bill. You can thank liberals and NDP for being ginger you communism
Of course people are leaving. Canada is a full on dictatorship and the quality of life has sank to all time lows. Vote for a socialist regime , pay the price. Canada is done amd will never be the same again . If you’re thinking of moving her, don’t. Even Cuba is better than here.
Most of these thinga arw covered above. But tur real issue is that canada has lagged the usa in gdp per capita for 10 years. That gap is now 40k/y usd! So if you can move to fhe usa, or another cpuntry with similar standard of living, why wouldnt you?
As for immigrants, we know the calibre of immifeanta fell when teudeau was chasing his 100M goal. So no surprise.
Immigrants over the last couple years seem to focus on extracting what the can from our country. They have little interest in contributing to or participating in our society. As one recent immigrant explained… he is here to make some money… get his passport and go back ‘home’ and live like a king. They do not see Canada as home… so let them leave. Hopefully we see a significant increase in exits… we will endure, persist and rebuild.
Canada is now mass immigrating low standard people (for cheap labour?) and it’s causing damage to the social fibre of this country and causing a real decline in quality of life with increased crime, higher living costs, bad drivers, etc. Many people now say “What has happened to Canada”? It’s time to clean things up, get rid of the over 1 million people in Canada on temporary Visa’s, reduce immigration to sensible numbers like 250,000 a year, or fewer. Bring back stiffer penalties for crimes committed and get rid of Trudeau’s disasterous bail reforms.
Recent years of mass immigration, and now after obtaining that desired passport here are leaving again having dual citizenship is not mentioned in this article. Careful honest statistical analysis is required.
I’m an old Boomer so I was able to buy a nice house for three times my salary in the 1980s. I can’t imagine anyone trying to make a go of it here anymore, even if they have a good salary. No wonder they are leaving.
Once the Government figured out they could Buy Most People’s Votes and subsidize our Aging Population by inflating housing prices, Canada was on a downhill slide towards becoming… in one or two generstions, to quote The Donald, “a very chilly 3rd World Country.”
Welcome to the party.
Have your career in Canada.
Retire at 45
Do all your investing in the USA.
This picture is incomplete. The largest number of retirees ever, are turning 65. They have money.
Is this cohort inflating the normal amount of outflow for warming winters?
Are recently immigrants returning home?
The high price of real estate and rent is the same all over worst in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. This is a factor as all of these countries are also seeing young people leave for greener pastures.
More detailed information would be useful.
It’s actually not incomplete, you just don’t realize that data doesn’t exist for the narrative you have running in your head. I’m close to retirement and it dumbfounds me people my age don’t understand two basic things:
– young people spend differently. A dollar in my hand stimluates the economy less than one in a young person’s hand because I will bank part of it, put part of it in deference, and then spend a little on more expensive goods. A young person spends most of their cash on immediate things that generate local employment (restaurants, shopping, etc).
– You’re not making more money if the bulk of society makes the same. If you lived in a $200k bungalow that’s now $1.2 million, you still live in a bungalow. This always corrects since wages either adjust or the country dies a slow death like the rest of europe.
If you think Canada is so bad, why don’t YOU leave?!
You gotta be kidding me chief. Imagine being mad at someone for pointing out that the talent is leaving. It’s losers like you that are dragging this country down.
That’s not even considering the factSteven’s done more for this country in the past few years than you could do in multiple lifetimes. Next time don’t yell out the window of the short bus, it’s embarrassing to the rest of the country when it may not be clear that you’re just a moron.