Canada’s immigration slump is deepening—but not evenly, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Finalized applications for temporary residents had the weakest October since the pandemic. It’s been a persistent trend over the past year, as the country throttles certain segments. While this has impacted most of the traditional sources, the declines haven’t been even.
Canadian Temporary Resident Applications Plunge Sharply
Finalized temporary residence applications remain significantly lower than last year. Canada processed 365.3k in October, up 2.6% from a month prior. Even with a seasonal bump, the volume is 27.8% (-140.4k) lower than last year, marking the weakest October since 2021. Not since physical border restrictions were in place has Canada seen such a low volume. It was the second year in a row the month has seen a decline.
Canadian Temporary Resident Applications Down Sharply, But Still Above 2022
Canadian finalized applications for temporary residency.
Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.
The trend isn’t new, with year to date (YTD) volumes down significantly. Canada processed 4.04 million applications YTD, down 20.8% compared to last year. That’s a huge decline, but that’s not even down to 2022 levels. These are still substantial volumes, and while most source countries have declined—there’s been a big surge in some.
Canadian Temporary Resident Applications: India Slumps, Ukraine Surges
Canadian finalized applications for temporary residency: YTD Percent Change for Top 10 sources of applicants.
Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.
Canada’s largest sources of temporary residency applications are shifting. The largest sources are India with 1.02 million applications YTD (-28.2%), China at 348.5k (-15.8%), and Nigeria with 260.5k (-12.6%).
Only two countries out of the top ten sources saw application growth. The biggest was Ukraine with 242.7k applications YTD, more than tripling (+227.6%) the same period last year. The other is Colombia’s 87.9k applications, which climbed a comparatively tame 2.2% from last year.
The shift in demand is the most interesting takeaway. Demand from Canada’s top sources is falling very quickly, but not from every country. Applications from Ukraine and Colombia are on the rise, reflecting geopolitical factors more than economic migration.
More immigration officers may have been caught receiving bribes, which is why we are seeing fewer applications. Although I don’t believe this practice has been abated on either side of the Atlantic or the Pacific. Money laundering remains at the top of the list for supporting new immigrants.
A recent acquaintance of a Uran immigrant who was incoherent and unqualified to perform any task is now part of future healthcare costs, housing costs and unemployment benefits. Canada’s universal healthcare suggests it’s the best place to send an ageing population, while generational Canadian taxpayers stand in line regarding the same issues.
Domestically or at a processing center? Apparently the gov had someone arrested overseas for figuring out how to issue permits without the consulates approval.
Though knowing our politicians, that’s probably more of a feature than a bug.
Looking forward to the Heritage Commercials in a few years.
Canada. It’s better than a war zone. ™️
Who wants to bet everyone forgot the immigration curbs end this year?
The CMHC is already working on an overseas guarantee for real estate investors apparently. That’s why no developer is even stepping back despite sales hitting zero.
A surge of Ukrainian applications is most probably from those who got CUAET WP in 2022 for 3 years and was extending it for another 3 years in 2025.
All those people are already in Canada. As far as I know Canada is not allowing any new ppl under CUAET program for more than a year.
really wonder why my comment referencing CUAET renewals was deleted