Canadian real estate isn’t getting much of a boost despite lower rates and billions in stimulus. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the price of a typical home (composite benchmark) slipped lower in December. Despite plunging rates, most provinces saw prices grind lower and all but one remained lower than the record high. Meanwhile, provinces like Ontario are seeing home prices fall further into correction territory.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Slipped Lower In Most Provinces
Canadian real estate prices generally slipped last month. The benchmark composite fell 0.2% ($1,500) to $705,600 in December. Prices are now down 17.2% (-$146,400) from the record high that was reached back in March 2022. Only a few markets were able to resist slipping lower last month.
Just 3 out of the 9 provincial HPIs showed growth last month. The largest move was in Nova Scotia, where prices climbed 0.7% (+$2,900) in December. It was followed by New Brunswick, which also advanced 0.7% (+$2,400). Then there’s Newfoundland rounding out the three, though it barely budged with a 0.1% (+$400) increase to $305,700. It’s worth noting that all 3 three of these markets have a significant concentration of employment in government services, and the back-to-office legislation was designed to boost demand.
The remaining provinces saw prices contract last month. PEI saw the sharpest monthly drop, with a typical home plunging 1.0% (-$3,900) to $370,300 in December. It was followed by Alberta ($505,200; -0.3% m/m), and Ontario ($859,600; -0.2% m/m).
Ontario Real Estate Prices Are Correcting Much Faster Than Other Provinces
The composite benchmark prices of a typical home across Canada and by province. Manitoba is excluded due to a lack of benchmark price.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Only a single province was at its record high last month—New Brunswick. The remaining showed relatively small declines, and only two were 6-figures from peak.
The largest plunge from peak was also in the most expensive provinces—Ontario and BC. The benchmark in Ontario fell to $859,600 in December, and remains 20.6% (-$220,800) below the record high. BC is a distant second place for biggest drop with the benchmark at $955,500, down 10.9% (-$116,100) from its record high.
Canadian real estate prices are losing steam before they even begin to take off. Prices have been largely resistant to declines, believing that normalization of rates would lead to normalized sales. That hasn’t happened yet, and with bond yields on the rise—the odds aren’t in favor of a quick return to normal.
Still needs another 20% to even be close to making sense. The flippers that banked on cramming 10 foreign students into each condo are going to be mighty disappointed.
I understand that Ontario real estate is overpriced, but just the GTA has a GDP about the same as Alberta. There may be limited opportunities in Canada, but most of it’s concentrated in Ontario.
6.7 million people in the GTA have the same economic output as 4.8 million in Alberta. Sounds like more people fighting for the same portion of the pie no?
I am unsure the size and gross output of oil economy has to do with this.
2nd that!
I suspect BC is gaming the numbers because it’s been a bloodbath here, especially in the condo apartment segment.
The Tariffs haven’t been applied yet. Let’s see these numbers 24 months from now.
And now we see the other side of the diseconomies flagrantly enabled by our federal provincial and municipal governments. This will cause real pain to real people. But the Laurentians who perpetrated this nightmare are very pleased.
Hang on to your shorts, 2025 is going to be a whirlwind. Tariffs, unemployment reaching 10% in Ontario, 5 millon temporary residents leaving and a new government.
Prices still need to come down by 25%. Rates mean shit if you are in debt up to your eye brows and living way beyond you means!!
Return to normal? Such a misused term…
This is NOT acceptable. Trudeau must step in and fix this and ensure that house prices increase. People depend on their house price to retire. It must be supported.
You bought it. You ride it out or sell
You are asking the guy who caused it to fix it? You know that over a third of his cabinet are multiple property owners don’t you? This has been the Liberal’s signature economic policy for the last ten years…
And the ‘real’ problems haven’t yet been addressed. The inflated stock market ‘Ponzi’ has to correct, and all the feel good from that evaporating will hammer real estate back to the Stone Age.
Ontario BC Alberta – Knock 80% off and we might call you back.
We are seeing on youtube and other sites:
BRAND NEW TEXAS HOMES UNDER 400K THAT KNOCK YOUR SOCKS OFF ON GREAT SIZED LOTS IN NICE NEW NEIGHBOURHOODS.
Canadian prices are collapsing