Canadian real estate price growth is accelerating ahead of the government’s helicopter cash. Teranet – National Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNC HPI) shows prices reached a new all-time high in August. The sudden acceleration of price growth came largely from smaller markets. Most cities saw price growth last month, with Vancouver being a notable exception.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Rise, Reversing Downtrend
The C11, an index of Canada’s largest real estate markets reached a new all-time high last month. The aggregate index increased 0.41% in August, and is now up 0.61% from the same month last year. Over two-thirds of the price movement was last month, reversing growth deceleration. Prices are now at a new all-time high as a result, but some markets didn’t benefit from the increased enthusiasm.
Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Near All-Time High With Condo Boost
Toronto real estate is pushing to a new all-time high, even without detached homes moving. The index for the city showed prices increased 0.80% in August, and are now up 3.79% from the same month last year. Prices are now just 0.11% below the all-time high reached in July 2017. Detached prices haven’t made much of a rise, but condo prices more than make up for it.
Toronto Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Real Estate Is One of The Few Markets Still Falling
Vancouver real estate prices didn’t get the memo the rest of the country is sharing. The city’s index fell a massive 0.78% in August, bringing prices 6.63% lower than the same month last year. Composite prices are now down 6.96% from the peak reached in July 2018. The city’s index has shown negative growth every month this year.
Vancouver Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Montreal Real Estate Prices Make Third Largest Monthly Increase
Montreal real estate prices made a massive jump last month. The index shows prices rose 1.12% in August, and are now up 5.75% from the same month last year. Prices are at a new all-time high as of last month… again. Montreal’s price increase is the third largest in Canada, with only Halifax and Ottawa beating it.
Montreal Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Calgary Real Estate Prices Are Seeing Smaller Losses
Calgary real estate, which has been in the dumper (yeah, that’s a technical term) for quite some time, is starting to see things improve. The city’s index fell 0.56% in August, and is now down just 2.26% from the same month last year. Prices are now down 5.90% from the all-time peak reached in October 2014. Prices may finally recover after a very long downtrend.
Calgary Real Estate Price Change
The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.
Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.
Canadian real estate prices are at a new all-time high, and growth accelerated for the first time in months. The one month acceleration doesn’t mean a reversal of the downtrend, well, at least not yet. However, the fact that the reversal came right before the government’s cash injection may be telling. Most of the increases are in cities were the first-time buyer plan is expected to “help” with affordability.
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Sweet anticipation is fleeting though.
I honestly didn’t think there was all that much risk in the system, because usually some sort of “financial innovation” is needed to blow the top. The first-time homebuyer plan might be it.
People should ask this. If the plan is to “help” first-time buyers with a downpayment, and even the government admits it will drive prices higher – how do you solve the issue when prices rise outside of the program’s limit?
We’re already seeing Vaughan’s proposal, which is to just raise the limit. The solution from the government is to continue to give money to first-time buyers, which continually drives more and more tax payer-based risk into the system.
Food for thought:
Each premium the CMHC pays is cash that should be going to reduce your taxes, by providing the government income. The increased deficit/diverted cash is going to come from somewhere. Most likely our pockets. Falling tax revenues will have the same impact as cutting taxes, which is we’ll defer more cash, incur more debt, and they’ll hit us with a bigger bill at some point.
Yvette,
You don’t think 2017 was a blow off top? Prices were up 33% YOY.
This is sadly the only reason I’m not voting Liberal this year. If reelected, they plan on dropping even more cash in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. It’s absurd. Lower payments, but higher prices. WTF?!
Don’t kid yourself.
Cut taxes, higher deficit – more taxes plus interest (companies are already sitting on a record cash pile, they aren’t going to pump more investment).
Pump money into the market from the CMHC, divert government revenue, means higher cost of living and potentially more taxes.
Raise taxes to pay for new services, is well, raising taxes.
Only thing that’s positive is we’ll be paying more. Difference is whether we pay it up front, or if it’s hidden until the next election along with interest. I might be the only high income person in the financial industry to vote directly for higher taxes, since at least we’ll get more stuff for it.
So happy I just moved to the US. My rent is cheaper, I make more, and while I’m shopping for houses prices are FALLING.
Oh yeah, the tiny town I moved to is called New York City, and Silicon Alley is on a mad dash hiring spree, so flee if you can.
Does one need to be an US citizen or a PR with a good credit history to buy a house. Unless one is rich to pay the entire value in cash.
Hey BD admins, really? I get called out and you don’t let me respond with a safe post yesterday? You use to have an open board that got a little crazy I admit but was never on par with the ‘Chans’ so what gives? Did you ban Grizz too? Don’t see him on here anymore…get your head straight. Bunch of snowflakes, I thought you were better than that but I guess not. BD4L.
Nah, we don’t screen comments manually. They’re on a time release, or if certain words are used the auto-spam catches it for manual approval (which takes longer).
Sure. I played it uber safe yesterday. Done with this. Reminds me of Breitbart.
Still read most of the posts, just have not commented in a while. Last time I tried commenting my post did not make it through the filter either. Nothing offensive at all so assumed it was a glitch.
Sad to see the Government keep bailing out the Debtors, sticking it to the Savers, Fixed Income Crowd and Wage Earners. Then backing a new crowd of Dumb Money Debtors to keep the Buble Growing. Anything to buy votes and get re-elected.
It’s been a completely boas bear market site for a long time now. I still come to read it as it’s interesting, but I avoid any of the opinionated stuff .
Might actually have been Blue. Last few times I tried commenting it wouldn’t let me through. (including today) Figured it was a glitch……. maybe not though.
Canada economy = Real estate Ponzi scheme bubble.
Liberals are ruining our lives… one day we will be like Zimbabwe
I could have sworn I saw the word “crash” in the title. But I guess it was ‘cash’ all along.
Maybe they’re interchangeable in this one instance…
This is why Canada is accepting more and more immigrants. The first time home buyer are the new immigrants. In order to keep this ponzi scheme alive : housing inflation, you need immigrations inflation.
Canada economical strategy. mass migration and housing inflation. I hope Canada has a plan to upgrade infrastructure such as road, water station.
Little mistake. Canada economical strategy is mass migration. housing inflation and acting as money laundering facilitator. The collapse of Canada will be spectacular. You will have racial civil war within every major cities of Canada. Montrea l: black against Arab, Vancouver: Chinese against Pakistani and son on.
I agree with some of what you’re saying here about the Ponzi scheme and the money laundering, but you’re obviously a little too horny for things to go full “Turner Diaries” and you need to take that somewhere else.
And Maxime Bernier is apparently “racist” for stating, accurately (almost), that Canada now has the highest per capita immigration intake in the Western world.
I say “almost” because I believe New Zealand has a higher rate, though even they have begun to reduce the numbers. Australia too. Canada is the only country still perpetually increasing immigration without the necessary infrastructure upgrades to support it. Utter madness.
So if everything is climbing, will the bulls still ask the Feds to drop the Stress test?
I doubt it…
Why wouldn’t they? To them, government intervention to prop up the market is good but government intervention to cool the market is bad.
The Fall market is strong in Toronto this time with both sales and prices increasing. Can’t wait to see September’s report. Not sure how long this will last but it will probably last longer if Liberals win.
The gap in prices between condos and houses have shrink so much in the last few years that it’s almost not worth buying a condo any more unless you are not thinking of having a family…
Democratic governments never fix a problem, they will just pass it onto the next elected government.
In the US; it’s “finding the common ground” to get another over extended budget to pass.
In Canada; governments (federally and provincially) never fix the real issues.. drug laundering, illegal laundered money being transferred out of Canada, by gangs using these many money transferring banks, Never being able to prosecute drug gangs..(instead they try to get the US to prosecute),stopping off shore money from avoiding taxes when (investing in real estate).
What Canadian Democracy is really good at is prosecuting honest Canadians, that support the system through taxes and trust. These Canadians believe in Canada, and pay their fines and taxes, while many others use lawyers, often crooked, that miss use our trust.