Canada

Canadian Real Estate Prices Jump With Higher Inflation – Except In Western Canada

Canadian real estate prices have resumed their climb, alongside rising inflation. The TeranetNational Bank of Canada House Price Index (TNB HPI) climbed in December. The modest increase is due to weakness in just a few regions. Eastern Canada, including Ontario and Quebec, are seeing prices climb very quickly. Western Canadian real estate prices however, are still falling – holding the index lower.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Make A Modest Increase

The C11, an aggregate price index of Canada’s largest cities, made an increase. December saw prices climb 0.21% from a month before, and are up 1.95% from last year. The small increase still brings the index to a new record high. Virtually all of the drag on the index was in Western Canada.

Teranet-National Bank HPI C11 (Annual Change)

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Canada’s 11 largest cities, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Made A Large Monthly Increase

Toronto real estate prices made a large increase last month, according to the index. December saw prices rise 0.44% from a month before, and are now up 4.48% from last year. This represents a new record high for the index.

Toronto Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Toronto, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Prices Stop Falling

Vancouver real estate prices are starting to stabilize on the higher sales volumes. December saw prices virtually flat from the month before, but down 4.05% from the same month last year. The index is now 6.88% lower than the peak reached in July 2018. Not great news, but prices didn’t fall for the month.

Vancouver Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Vancouver, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Montreal Real Estate Prices Climb To A New High

Montreal real estate prices made a big climb last month. December saw prices climb 0.37% from a month before, and are now up 6.37% from the same month last year. Prices in the region are now at a new all-time high. The 12-month increase is tied with last month, but is the biggest increase seen since 2011. To contrast, the C11 was seeing larger growth in just 2018. Montreal had been underperforming until recently.

Montreal Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Montreal, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Calgary Real Estate Prices Slip Further

Calgary real estate prices experienced a bump in its road to price recovery. December saw prices fall 0.61% from the month before, bringing prices down 0.94% from a year before. Prices are now down 6.24% from the peak reached all the way back in October 2014. The size of declines had been shrinking since June, but have abruptly changed course.

Calgary Real Estate Price Change

The 12 month percent change of real estate prices in Calgary, according to the TNB HPI.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate prices are moving higher, but the country’s markets are divided. Western Canada is improving, but still hasn’t got out of the gutter. The region’s lower or negative growth is dragging the national index lower. In Eastern Canada, prices are back to booming, contributing to that roaring inflation reported last month.

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9 Comments

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  • Yan 5 months ago

    “You’re just jealous you don’t own more real estate.”

    “Why are property taxes going up?”

    “Why did all of my living expenses rise so fast?”

    The circle of life continues. It’s like higher real estate prices mean people need a lot higher pay to live in the city you’re in, and that translates into a higher cost of living for everyone, and inefficient pay that eventually kills independent businesses, and employment.

    • Mortgage Guy 5 months ago

      The one strange trick to kill a city. Life-cycle theory, they even teach it in realtor school.

      Not sure if this is the peak or not, but its always followed by a depressing catch up of fundamentals over the next few years. I don’t understand how Boomers are pretending this won’t happen. They’ve seen it 3 times in their generation.

    • Honli 5 months ago

      Good points there, these idiots running the government dont understand it. When young talent cant afford a place to live they leave the city. With social welfare costs mostly burdened on young people these are the last people you want to lose. You lose one you lose 40 years of taxation.

      What they need to do is put heavy taxation on people or corporates that own multiple residential real estate. This will force these leechers to bring supply to the market and increse taxation. Solving two problems at once.

  • Emo Kid 5 months ago

    Money laundering and fooling educated foreigners into migrating to Toronto where they have no choice but to stay in Hotel California and live with the serfs.

  • Rogelio Colina 5 months ago

    Your newsletter Jan 20th omits Mb & Winnipeg, which are presumably both stalling & falling. That will be good for buyers & poor for sellers.
    Could you give Mb country towns & Winnipeg Mb a mention, please.

    • Mike 5 months ago

      Manitoba is left out of most economist reports. I believe someone told me it has to do with their data being prohibitively expensive, compared to the volume of sales.

  • LoL 5 months ago

    Early 70s,late 80s early 90s mid 2000s

  • Ken Davenport 5 months ago

    According to the Bank of Canada new mortgage advances from the banks grew 4.83% p.a. in November 2019. In November 2007 they were up 12.39%. Over the last year mortgages actually growing near the lowest rate in fifty years.

    You have a very strange definition of binge.

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