Canadian Permanent Resident Applications Fall 57%, Weakest Month In Years

Canada plans to limit permanent resident visas next year, but they’re already plunging lower without restrictions. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows permanent resident applications made a sharp drop in July. Even if the current trend stops eroding and stabilizes, the country would struggle to hit next year’s planned limits without any policy changes. A problem that policymakers would have been aware of when they decided to make the announcement.  

Canadian Permanent Resident Applications Fall 57% Lower, Worst Month In Years

Monthly Canadian permanent resident applications received by the IRCC.

Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.

Canadian permanent resident applications have made a sharp drop over the past twelve months. The IRCC received just 17k in July, down a whopping 57% compared to the same month last year. It was the third consecutive month to report negative year-over-year (y/y) growth—all in the double-digit range. It also happened to be one of the weakest months for applications going back at least 3 years. 

The most recent data reported stands in stark contrast to the start of the year. Permanent resident applications in the first 4 months of 2024 came in much higher than last year. In May it completely nosedived, plunging sharply into negative territory. 

Canadian Permanent Resident Applications YTD Now Negative

The contraction over the most recent months was so sharp that it pulled the whole year into negative territory. IRCC data shows they received 274.5k permanent residency applications in July year-to-date (YTD), down 3% from last year. It’s a whopping 37% lower than the volume received in 2021, back when there was a scramble to move to Canada.  

Canada Plans To Limit Permanent Resident Applications Next Year

The Government of Canada (GoC) recently announced it would lower its application limit as a part of a broader scheme to control population growth. They had originally targeted 500,000 applications for 2025, but has since slashed that limit down to 395k people. If the current YTD trend stabilizes (and doesn’t erode further), the agency would struggle to hit that volume of applications. Nevermind the actual volume of permits needed.   

The latest IRCC data is July, but the agency would have real-time estimates. They’re likely already aware of a decline in applications, and imposing limits to appear in charge and mitigate the appearance of falling appeal to immigrants. Regardless, prepare for slower population growth to arrive soon—possibly much earlier than next year’s planned limits.

24 Comments

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  • Reply
    Frank Dougherty 2 weeks ago

    Wild stuff. Thought there was no way in hell they’re going to limit them voluntarily, but figured it was because the US applied pressure.

    • Reply
      Melissa Aarons 2 weeks ago

      If we’re offering applications and they aren’t being taken up, that’s a pretty big matzah ball out there. They’ll create a new class to fill it up or just let a foreign t!rror group issue them directly.

      • Reply
        Steve heuchert 2 weeks ago

        They can make up the drop in immigration by bringing in more Hamas supporting Palestinians. Perhaps Cape Breton University can start offering degrees in bomb making. Maritimes already love their donairs, shawarma and kabobs. These Palestinian newcomers should feel right at home.

        • Reply
          John 16 hours ago

          Racist much? I hope you pull your nose out of highly censored and curated news for the likes of you and find some unbiased sources. It will likely have no effect on you if you have been brainwashed into demonizing a certain group ever since you developed the ability to think; still worth a shot.

      • Reply
        Mark 2 weeks ago

        Not sure why stuffing the country full of people from elsewhere is such a wonderful idea .

        • Reply
          Lisa 2 weeks ago

          Wage suppression is one good reason. Gotta make our state protected oligopolies very happy with endless supply of cheap labor.

  • Reply
    GDL 2 weeks ago

    They’ll reverse the “limits” as soon as they’re re-elected. We still don’t have a beneficial ownership registry and the foreign buyer tax was lifted if you plan to rent the property out. LOL.

  • Reply
    Mikhail 2 weeks ago

    Reminds me of when Canada told everyone prepare for 250k Ukrainian migrants and only 60k actually applied for visas. Even fewer came, and less when you count the volume that left shortly after realizing they would rather stick it out with their family in war than live in the conditions we call success.

    It used to be a lot easier to make it in this country. Many well intended immigrants don’t understand how much things have changed in less than 5 years.

  • Reply
    Robert Sinasac 2 weeks ago

    With no housing available long before July, of course July would have fewer people wanting to live in Canada, let alone seek citizenship. And where do you think 395k people will sleep in 2025. Stats are great, but if there is no housing now, there will be even less housing available in 2025.
    It takes months to build. And how many new citizens will sleep on a sidewalk this coming winter.
    A friend moved from a house to a trailer while the house was being built on a lot they already owned.

  • Reply
    Steve heuchert 2 weeks ago

    Trudeau’s latest PR cutback is like firing all your employees after they have all quit on their own. Really smart management of our country – reactionary responses to yet another ship that already sailed if you know what I mean.

  • Reply
    Cardinal Fang 2 weeks ago

    They wrecked Canada so much nobody wants to come here anymore.
    Are you still glad about the high price of your house because that’s probably the main reason.

    • Reply
      Jason Wien 2 weeks ago

      At best we will be a short-term staging ground for people to cross into the United States. That is our future.

  • Reply
    William Peter Gravel 2 weeks ago

    Well, well, so the Canadian Goverment the liberal are cutting back on immigrant, come on the migrant are not going to come to Canada because of the problem when they arrive expect what was before Covid! The spike in 2021 was mostly because of the second wave of Covid in India which was worst then the first round due lack of supplies to fight and help people! Naturally you get out of there under these conditions! India largest population of appx 1.5 billion had about 45 million cases and lost about 500,000 not bad compare to Canada problems! With high cost of education the lack of proper housing and opportunities, high Canadian Goverement costs for emigrants application, student are smart enough to know the systems is screwed up as admitted by the Liberals! It’s obvious where problem lies, without immigrants Canada will not advance or Properous! Enjoy your day best regards, no I’m not an immigrant unless you call my father family coming in 1641, naturally I’m a Metis on my mother side family coming in early 1700!

  • Reply
    Fred 2 weeks ago

    I saw a street Q&A in the Little India of New Jersey, and they appear to be more ambitious, positive and successful than newcomers living in Canada just existing to pay rent to a slumlord while breaking their bones in dead-end general labour jobs.

    Very hard for an immigrant to succeed in Canada.

  • Reply
    Gin 2 weeks ago

    Permanent resident applications in the first 4 months of 2024 came in much higher than last year. In May it completely nosedived, plunging sharply into negative territory.
    Would this have anything to do with it? – As of 30 April 2024, international students in Canada can no longer work more than 20 hours per week off campus while studying –

    • Reply
      Raj 2 weeks ago

      Not directly. It student visa limits would have no impact on permanent resident applications, especially since those are often people already in the country.

      It mostly means people aren’t interested in staying.

      • Reply
        WilliamPeter Gravel 2 weeks ago

        In BC a young East Indian working in a fast food, who has just graduated from a advance education! Told me for her to file for Permanents Residents with the Canadian Goverment it’s $500.00 and it’s just the start of other costs! Disappointment to say the least!

  • Reply
    Prakash Singh 2 weeks ago

    Educated foreigners don’t like the idea of living in a basement with a dozen other strangers while paying rent that eats up most of their income in a precarious job with no rights and benefits.

    Slumlords are even demanding that girls as young as 10 give it up to them as conditions for renting a slum room. Tragic if you ask me.

    • Reply
      Raj 2 weeks ago

      Correct. Imagine your options are a 5-bedroom house and making one of the highest incomes in India working for a US tech giant like Amazon, or coming to Canada and working for that same tech giant doing the same thing and only being able to afford a basement split with someone else?

      Canada shows its racism when it thinks people from other countries are just happy to live here. It doesn’t realize everyone wants top immigrants.

  • Reply
    Scott Henderson 2 weeks ago

    Canada needs to be strong and do well. As long as house prices are supported by Trudeau then I will be happy. Please Justin, give some of that carbon tax proceeds to homeowners to support the economy. Justin is like, really smart. Please Justin please. Support just Justin, support us. This is Canada’s time to really shine and show the world how amazing canada can be and is. Please increase refugee numbers to at least 300000 per year and international students to at least 400000000000 per year. Remember, this is Canada’s time!

    Lower rates to 0% Tiff to support housing. Tiffy Tiffy Tiffy can you see, what you be doin just hypnotize me. Woof!

    • Reply
      Patiently Waiting 2 weeks ago

      I think you should stop posting. Your comments make no sense. We have people living in tents and the cost of food is beyond reach for many. If JT is going to support housing so the price of your house doesn’t go down, then I want my investment portfolio supported as well. When you bought your home there was no guarantee the price won’t ever go down. Wake up.

  • Reply
    Simar 2 weeks ago

    With all due respect, this narrative is wrong. It’s not that the people are not interested in immigrating to Canada. People will always try their best to immigrate to Canada. It’s just that the government is putting the breaks too hard to build up their image before the elections. If the government decides to lower the Express Entry draw threshold, they can easily fill their quota in one single draw.

  • Reply
    Ron Bruce 2 weeks ago

    There is a correlation between immigrants, available jobs, housing and medical care. But don’t tell the Prime Minister. He thinks anyone arriving will have a job and pay taxes. A job at Tim Hortons isn’t an economic game changer.

  • Reply
    Anil 2 weeks ago

    People have started realizing the flip side of Canadian systems. Hence, not only this dip in PR applocation, high tax paying immigrants are leaving Canada for better destinations in droves.

    I am paying $60k in income tax alone. On top of that I pay 5k in property tax and 13% on most of my consumption here. But IRCC is treating migrants like me as shit without any accountability and transparency about timelines to process PR and citizenship applications. These migrants have started realizing that they are paying for Canada’s ambitions of becoming heaven for refugees and freeloaders and lazy people. Personally I have paid 300k in income taxes in last 5 years here.

    While my citizenship application is pending since 7 months, I have already got my visa for USA and will packup as soon as my house is sold without further caring if I get the citizenship or not as I am not intending to return. I consider these 5 years as worst duration of my life in terms of personal happiness.

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