Canada

Canadian New Home Prices Fall, Dragged Lower By Toronto and Vancouver

Canadian new home prices are really split on which direction they should be heading. Statistics Canada‘s New Housing Price Index made a minor decline in November. On a national scale, it seems like the country’s markets aren’t doing a whole lot. The scale is being moderated by big markets like Montreal and Vancouver, heading in opposite directions.

Canadian New Home Prices Drop… Very Little

Canadian new home prices made a slight decline, on both the monthly and 12-month change. Actually, they’re both the same number – falling 0.10% in November, when compared to the month before or last year. In markets leading lower, cash incentives and lower prices are softening declines.

Canadian New House Price Index

The 12-month percent change in price for new homes across Canada’s largest cities.

Source: National Bank of Canada, Teranet, Better Dwelling.

Growth wise, the index has been relatively flat. It’s a few points lower in November, and just off the all-time high from a few months ago. The strength of the index is in smaller cities like Montreal and Ottawa. The weakness is largely concentrated out West, in places like Regina and Vancouver. Yes, it’s weird to group Regina and Vancouver’s markets together – but that’s where we are.

Toronto New Home Prices Are Down Almost 1%

Toronto new home prices made a slight decline last month, taking them a little further from peak. Prices dropped 0.10% in November, and are now 0.97% lower than the same month last year. New home prices peaked in December 2017, and are down 2.29% from that point. Not major declines, but new home prices are currently dropping faster than the national average.

Toronto New House Price Index

The 12-month percent change in price for new homes in Greater Toronto.

Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver New Home Prices Drop Over 2%

Greater Vancouver new home prices are leading the way lower for the country. Prices dropped 0.56% in November, and are now down 2.76% from the same month last year. New home prices peaked in October 2018, and are currently 3.02% below that level. Developers in the region are currently slowing releases of new home inventory, which could help with the speed of price declines.

Vancouver New House Price Index

The 12-month percent change in price for new homes in Greater Vancouver.

Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

Montreal New Home Prices Are Up Over 6%

New home prices in Montreal are up – a lot. Prices in the region increased 1.09% in November, and are up a massive 6.30% from last year. They’re currently at a new peak, as additional phases of launched projects price higher.

Montreal New House Price Index

The 12-month percent change in price for new homes in Greater Montreal.

Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

The national new house price index isn’t showing much movement by itself. However, breaking down those numbers – we can see two very distinct markets. Regions that saw robust resale price growth over the past few years (e.g. Vancouver), are seeing new home prices fall. Regions left out of the resale rallies over the past few years (e.g. Montreal), are seeing both new home and resales boom.

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4 Comments

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  • Mortgage Guy 5 months ago

    Good time for everyone to learn the sticker price, isn’t the same as the price a home is sold for.

    • David 5 months ago

      Truth. However people are still hung up on high price valuations that are unrealistic is some markets.

  • Mike 5 months ago

    It seems to me that no one is able to see or question how they arrive at the figures and or whether the information complied by the organized reality brokerage firms who supply the manipulated data to the folks at Stats Canada and the likes.

    Organized real estate brokerages across the country – their core existence is to promote the house price illusion to increase the commissions for their members (RE agents).

    In Vancouver, new house inventory has been sitting for the past year and every month the agents reduce the price by $100,000 on a $2.5M house. Now surely the price drop is not 2% as being reported by Better Dwelling. Not to mention, each time they reduce the price they create a new listing which skews the number of days on the market stats.

    You are just reporting what the folks in this case Stats Can. Why is no one questioning the data??

  • Michael Baraka 5 months ago

    Here is an article that is more than two years old, warning of excessive private sector credit and debt growth:
    https://www.broadbentinstitute.ca/andrew_ajackson/is_canada_facing_a_new_financial_crisis

    Canada is caught in the same economic mechanism that led to the 2008 global financial crisis.

    The cited economist is Steve Keen. Google his name and you will find many videos (You Tube) and publications.

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