Canadian interest in U.S. migration faded after the Great Recession—that’s reversing fast. In 2023, Canadians granted permanent residency hit a multi-year high, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) latest data. It’s easy to dismiss the data as lagging the narrative of rising hostilities, but that’s unwise. Canadians kicked off 2025 by permanently leaving in record volumes and sending record capital into U.S. stocks—indicating they see fewer opportunities in Canada .
Canadian Permanent Migration To The U.S. Hits A 7-Year High
U.S. permanent residency granted to Canadians by year.
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security; Better Dwelling.
Canadians granted permanent residency in the U.S. have been steadily climbing in recent years. The latest data shows 18,590 Canadians were granted residency in 2023, up 34% from a year prior and following a 16% increase in 2022. This marks the highest level since 2016.
U.S. Appeal To Canadians Faded Post-Great Recession, Now Reversing
The shift is somewhat surprising when zooming out and looking at the historical context. The trend peaked in 2005, falling in line with the Great Recession and U.S. housing bubble popping. Then it slid to a low in 2020, before sharply reversing and hitting a multi-year high in 2023.
Canada-U.S. Tensions Rise, But Canadians Still See Opportunity Elsewhere
Unfortunately, this data lags and we don’t have any concrete insights into how this plays out. It’s easy to conclude that rising tensions between the two countries would reduce migration in 2025. However, the available data indicates this may not be the case.
Two major data points to consider are emigration and cross-border investment. Emigration, when Canadians permanently move to another country, is hitting record volumes. A staggering 27,100 Canadians left for a new country in Q1 2025, a record for any first quarter. There’s no data on where they migrated, but the U.S. tends to be a big winner of high-skilled Canadians, via permanent residency or temporary work permits like the H-1B skilled labor visa.
Recent financial data shows Canadians are buying less domestic real estate, and making record investments in American stocks. The data only indicates capital is leaving, not people. However, it reveals many Canadians see more opportunity stateside, and anti-American hostility may be louder than widespread.
Whether the record number of Canadians are heading to the U.S. is secondary. The principal takeaway is that Canada was doing a lot right from 2005 to 2020, and then started to make some seriously detrimental decisions. The loudest voices insisting “everything is great” don’t change the fact that more Canadians feel the need to leave for better opportunities.
Not afraid to admit that I voted for Carney, I’m disappointed in the direction he’s taken, and I think his biggest mistake is playing up this faux anti-American perspective.
This is mostly being cheered on by middle management in the gov that only got promoted because of the union, but never hit real success because they think if you don’t like who you’re dealing with you just walk away. They can’t fathom the fact the rest of us business owners just have to laugh off idiots, and realize there’s a bigger opportunity/need beyond the person you’re dealing with for a few years.
Most Canadians fall into two categories when it comes to anti-US sentiment:
– they don’t have the education or skill that’s legally allowed to move to the US; or
– they’re old and have what they need.
I’m the latter. I own a home, I’ve got a few years to retirement. I’m not pushing my kids to leave, but they have a hell of a landscape to navigate if they don’t.
Relevant Punwasi twitter wisdom here: “Canada is filled with immigrants who moved 1,000s of miles from home so their kids can have a better life, only for their kids to be too scared to cross a border.”
I don’t know if the US is the best option, and I don’t like the direction they’re heading. But I do know if you’re a professional that’s struggling and think a change of government will just fix everything, you’re not gonna make it.
It’s hard to get any US visa with a path to permanent residency even with decent skills. This is especially true for people in the early stages of their career, when such a move is most advantageous. By the time you’ve gained enough experience for a US company to want to sponsor you, you’re likely already settled where you are in Canada.
I’ve tried to apply to US positions and they rarely (if ever) get back once you check the “I require employment-based visa sponsorship” box on the application. Skill issue? Probably. But what else am I to do?
No thanks. Canada has problems but the US is a big downgrade. Their stocks are more lucrative but the quality of life isn’t.
GAME OVER FOR CANADIAN REAL ESTATE
RENT OR STAY WITH FAMILY/ FRIENDS IN CANADA.
BUY HOUSES, CONDOS, FARMS, LOTS IN THE USA.
DUMP EVERYTHING YOU OWN IN CANADA AND EARN HIGHER USA DOLLAR RENTS ON AMERICAN HOMES AND PROPERTY.
why is BetterDwellings allowing americanhomebuy a venue for his BS , it’s non stop and always the same , the fact he chose a network provider called Yahoo says a lot about him an apt description
Agreed. This’d be an easy spam control.
Since these numbers are all lagging indicators, I’ll like to revisit this post next year. I find it difficult to believe that under the current circumstances, H1B visas are being given out aplenty. People may have “seen” greater opportunity in the US, I firmly believe that trend will start to reverse in short order. There are cracks in the US job market, inflation is slowly creeping upward. The US dollar is looking like it will trend downward over time. The real estate market is too frothy, nearly in bubble territory. Wow, and we haven’t even mentioned the trend towards a fascist government! Debt to GDP up YOY, deficits and debt growing at an unsustainable rate, and a stock market that is detached from the reality of what is going on in the street. No thanks. There are still opportunities in Canada if you are willing to work hard.
The allure of the United States is not what it used to be years ago. Cost of living is very high, things are going up in price worse than in parts of Canada especially where I live in Alberta. I’ve also traveled to 49 different countries and the grass always looks greener on the other side but there are parts of Canada that are livable and salvageable and far better places to live than most of the United States or most of the countries I’ve visited and checked out as potential landing spots.