What housing slump? Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows prices in all but one province climbed in May. The national index tells a different story. A gap between the headline number and what’s actually happening across most of the country, deserves a much closer look.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Moving Higher
The price of a typical home rose 0.2% (+$1.5k) to $667,700 in May. It marked the fourth straight monthly gain, adding 1.5% (+$10.0k) over that stretch and pushing prices to their highest point since October 2025. The market didn’t need higher sales or even tighter inventory, just easy credit and a firm desire to pay more.
It’s too early to call this a recovery—nationally, at least. Prices remain 4.1% (-$28.7k) below last year and 20.6% (-$173.6k) below the March 2022 peak, a long walk for any peak buyers still looking to be made whole.
Newfoundland Home Prices Jumped 5-Digits, Only Decline In Quebec
CREA House Price Index (HPI): The price of a typical home by province, percent change in May.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
All but one of the nine provinces with CREA HPIs showed prices climb in May. Newfoundland led with a five-digit jump, up 3.1% (+$10.5k) for the month. Saskatchewan followed at 1.8% (+$6.8k), then New Brunswick at 1.2% (+$4.1k). Quebec was the only province to move lower, shedding 0.6% (-$3.4k) from the record high it set a month prior—the lone dissent in a market that fell in line.
Newfoundland Is Canada’s Best Performing Market In The Past Year
The annual picture is more concentrated. Newfoundland leads with prices 11.3% (+$35.6k) higher than last year, followed by New Brunswick at 10.1% (+$32.6k). The drop-off after that is steep—Saskatchewan ranked third with just 3.8% (+$13.9k) growth, less than half the rate of second-place.
Three provinces posted annual declines. Ontario led the losses at 5.5% (-$44.1k), BC at 5.2% (-$49.0k), and Alberta at 2.3% (-$12.0k). Even the steepest drops were modest—which makes what’s happening at the national level even harder to explain.
Canadian Home Prices At Record Highs In Most Provinces
CREA HPI: The price of a typical home by province, percent change from record high.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Home prices hit a fresh high in 5 of 9 provinces. Two more are within striking distance: Quebec sits just 0.6% (-$3.4k) below its peak, Alberta just 2.3% (-$12.3k) below its own. Yet the price of a “typical” Canadian home is down 20.6% from peak—a number that demands an explanation.
It has one. Sort of. In BC, prices remain 14.9% (-$155.5k) below their 2022 high. In Ontario, prices are 24.8% (-$250.2k) lower—the only province where the correction is deeper than the national figure itself. It’s the only reason the headline number looks worse than what most of the country is actually experiencing.
That raises questions about how the national composite model is weighted. Either transaction volumes are thin in the provinces where prices are climbing—making those moves unreliable—or the index remains overly anchored to Ontario, even as sales have collapsed.
Both buyers in Newfoundland must be rolling in it.
If a single house sold in the entire province, but it sold for 2 Million, does CREA still consider this “record high” ? Folks, as long as CREA and the likes are the ones in control of the numbers, don’t expect any transparency, or legitimacy.
When Newfoundland becomes the hottest real estate market in town, you know things are upside down
A result of inflation and pressure of mass immigration. Results of Federal government policies
It will be hard to get a good cliff picture with all the crowds of real estate lemmings , but that should clear up , it always does…….
“just easy credit” Define, where? Otherwise I call BS as I’ve never experienced qualifying standards to be so choking tight, with 800+ credit rating, assets, no debt other than a $300k mortgage on a cashflow positive rental, owned for 15yrs, same stable tenant, 40%+ equity by BC Assessment #’s not 1 A lender, thus bank, provided our mortgage broker of 20+ years a quote. Instead we got offered an unsustainable loan shark 8.5% interest only. Banks also holding far less mortgages so seems less credit = contraction of money supply is in play after 25yrs of the complete opposite by irresponsibly pumping mortgages from 40 to 100% of GDP, fueling demand, inflating price > fundamentals the rug has now been pulled.