Canadian real estate is in the middle of a price correction, and single-family homes have been hit hardest. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows single-family homes, which include detached and semi-detached units, saw prices fall sharply in November. Virtually every market is now off its all time high, with the worst performing down nearly $500,000 since peaking.
Canada’s National Real Estate Market Has Seen Prices Fall $172k
Canada’s single-family real estate market has been hard hit after years of frothy growth. A benchmark home fell to $794,000 in November, dropping 1.4% (-$10,900) in the month. Prices are now 17.8% (-$172,200) lower for the segment compared to the peak. The correction is now widespread across the country, with not one market still at the all-time high, and many much lower.
Canadian Real Estate Prices Are Down In Every Market
The benchmark price of a single-family home in Canada’s major real estate markets.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
BC’s Single-Family Real Estate Market Is Falling Sharply
Single-family home prices fell in over 90 of single-family price indexes published by the industry. The largest drop in percentage points were Simcoe (-4.4%), Fredericton (-3.9%), and Lakelands (-3.0%). Shedding even a point in a single month is a big move, so these single-family home price declines are massive.
British Columbia (BC) real estate was slow to correct, but it’s making up for lost time. Single-family markets in the province made up the top largest price declines in dollar-terms. Greater Vancouver (-$35,6000), Fraser Valley (-$31,300), and Victoria (-$28,800) were at the bottom of the list for monthly performance. The rate for each of these markets was also larger than the national move.
Ontario Real Estate Has Seen The Worst Corrections From Peak
Ontario is home to the largest percentage point drop from peak in Canada. Single-family homes fell the most in Kitchener-Waterloo (-27.7%), Cambridge (-27.0%), and London-St. Thomas (-26.7%). All three of these markets have made declines large enough to be called a crash. Since they were all in pricey Ontario as well, the declines amount to at least $223,600 in lost equity.
Canadian Real Estate Prices From Peak ($)
The dollar value change of the benchmark price of a single-family home in Canada’s major real estate markets, from peak to November 2022.
Source: CREA; Better Dwelling.
Speaking of massive dollar declines, Ontario once again leads in this area from peak with BC putting up a fight. The biggest drop in dollar terms was Oakville-Milton (-$478,600), with single-family homes shedding a quarter of their value in just a few months. It was followed by Mississauga (-$376,000), and Fraser Valley (-$369,800).
Toronto single-family homes have seen the fourth largest price drop when measured in dollars. The benchmark price has dropped -20% since peaking, which is a drop of $320,200 in just nine months. That’s an average decline of $35.5k per month since February—and officially makes it enough to be considered a crash. Though the market as a whole is just a few points shy of being considered a total crash.
Canada’s single-family real estate markets have seen a sharp correction, but not far enough. At the national level, despite prices falling nearly a fifth of a million dollars, they’re only back to August 2021 levels. That should be an indication of just how out of whack the country’s real estate has been over the past few years.
The good news is that we’re probably going to have an election this year. The bad news is that the activists will likely win again…
The Federal is every 5 years so 2025 will be the next election. Trudeau will never call an election before then I guarantee it.
The houses for sale are still being priced at ridiculous prices because the owners and agents refuse to believe this is happening. Guess what they have no offers and been sitting on market for more than
3 months. It’s just getting started and Canada is going to be hit worst than any other country.
Rick, it does take home owners awhile to understand what is happening in the market. I can assure you that GOOD Realtors don’t want to over price their listings. A good Realtor wants to sell the properties that they list. You are correct for sure that there are a lot of over priced listings on the market. What do you think is going to be the outcome of this all?
Hopefully you are correct !!
2023 hopium! Can try to find greater fools in the new year, they will be in short supply.
Here’s a almost completed new build in ON listed today:
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25159946/125-explorer-way-thorold#view=calc
Seeking 2022 ATH prices!
In Q4 2022 Niagara, these difficult to sell in 800’s. If lucky, they can tenant for $2.3-$2.4k/m today, but need to move fast, because that market will be undercut soon.
Well, I just sold a rental property in a week for 50k more then it appraised for in February, so things are still selling.
I hope taxpayers will not be forced to pay the mortgage defaults of real estate flippers via CMHC.
It’s a scam where banks issue sub prime mortgage junk and insure it for peanuts against default on the backs of taxpayers.
The private insurance market is supposed to price risk and the premiums they would charge for insuring such sub prime mortgage junk is sky high.
An example of how quick people’s greed can change lives. Hope the prices go back to 2020 March, Am I just day dreaming 😀
Data is wrong. More like a soft landing. As Southern Ontario is slated for big development jobs in sectors that pay higher. In the spring, these homes will see higher bump in prices. Bear in mind London and Middlesex is still out preforming Toronto as more inventory is added.
1990 called and wants its investment thesis back.
You can’t get a soft landing with the Chinese out of the housing market as buyers. The market will fall until they reenter the housing market as buyers then prices will jump double digits one a single month, yes in one single month a 10+ percent gain. The Chinese don’t buy into falling markets of any type real estate or anything else. I lived through the years of Agincourt in the mid 1970’s and have lived in Markham since 1982.
Does anyone know why Sarnia-Lambton is never in this Realtor data? Does the local realtor association just not share it’s data?
Really curious what’s going on there as the market there was bonkers in 2021 and early this year with non-Lakefront homes were going for millions.
It might not be a part of the CREA HPI index. I emailed the author about Halifax last year, and they explained that was the issue.
They reached out to the board and suggested its inclusion, and it got done a few months later. Maybe reach out and ask them?
Are prices really falling or are people just choosing less expensive houses? If somebody buys a Ford Fiesta instead of a Ferrari, it would be absurd to say that car prices are plummeting.
This is the dumbest take.
The people clueless about the lag period of time in rents and home prices are the ones still attempting to buy at the lowest end of the housing market. The lowest end of the market has held up best skewing prices lower as more sales are at the low end. The next phase in the housing decline will be rents falling sharply around the end of this year and the bottom falling out of the lowest end of the housing market.
This article is a joke, right? The writer makes it sound like the sky is falling before finally acknowledging, in the final paragraph, that actually this only rolls prices back to where they were a year and a half ago(!!) and that this is a known feature of interest rate hikes, not an unforeseen bug. If you’re panicking about home prices falling, maybe you shouldn’t have bet your entire retirement fund on one.
If you bought a home between Aug 2021 and August 2022, the sky is falling since your downpayment has been wiped out and you’re now negative equity.
That means no ability to shop lenders or move, unless you pony up another downpayment sized exit fee. Your credit is also shot right ahead of the next industrial revolution where 1 in 3 people are expected to see their job eliminated within the next 5 years.
This
Just read price/sales data for Grey, Bruce, Owen Sound, (central Ontario), from Chestnut Park Realty. In most areas, prices are down 22-35%, compared to Nov. ’21, with the exception of Owen Sound which is down just over 2%. Listings are up and sales are down compared to Nov. ’21. Price decline is specific to location.
I hope taxpayers will not be forced to pay the mortgage defaults of real estate flippers via CMHC.
It’s a scam where banks issue sub prime mortgage junk and insure it for peanuts against default on the backs of taxpayers.
The private insurance market is supposed to price risk and the premiums they would charge for insuring such sub prime mortgage junk is sky high.
The long term bond risk premiums are still relatively low in the private mortgage insurers. They must have their faith in Justin Trudeau if things go awry.
I am an Amherst Island resident and I watched as the Covid greed bubble priced many locals off the island. The crash will hopefully reverse the trend!
💡Your indecipherable charts would be much more useful if they listed the per centage drop next to each entry!