Canadian Condo Prices See First Double Dip Decline On Record

Canada’s condo market has provided big returns for investors, but it’s currently running on fumes. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the price of a benchmark, or typical, condo apartment fell in July. The investor-dominated segment didn’t see prices fall nearly as much as the general market since rates began climbing. However, condos have resumed a downturn after a short break, as rate cuts fail to bring a surge of buyers that many had anticipated. 

Canadian Condo Prices Slip But Retain Most Recent Gains

The price of a benchmark condo apartment across Canada. 

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling. 

Soft demand for condo apartments is wearing down prices, but they remain lofty. The price of a benchmark condo apartment fell 0.5% (-$2,600) to $526,500 in July. Prices are now 3.2% (-$17,400) lower than the same month last year. It’s a substantial discount, and the market  momentum is heading in the wrong direction. 

Canadian Condo Prices See A Double Dip Downturn 

The annual growth rate for the price of a benchmark condo apartment across Canada. 

Source: CREA; Better Dwelling. 

Condos have once again seen prices turn negative. Annual growth has decelerated for five consecutive months. It’s the sharpest decline since June 2023, only a little over a year ago. No record for the size of decline, but the duration is treading new territory. This is the first recorded double dip for annual growth—two periods of declines separated by less than a year of positive growth. 

Canadian Condo Prices Are Only 10% Below Record High

Looking at just the 12-month change in price understates how much they’ve pulled back. The benchmark price is 9.6% (-$55,600) lower than the record high reached in April 2022. Significantly more than people may assume from just the annual growth rate, but not even enough to be considered a correction. If the market warrants a correction, this double dip might be where it starts. 

Canadian condo prices haven’t pulled back nearly as much as the general market. At 9.6% below the record high, it’s outperforming the composite of all home types by 5 points. Either this market is much stronger than single-family homes or the primarily investor-driven segment still hasn’t seen the full scope of its downturn. 

15 Comments

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  • Ronnie 3 months ago

    I don’t know who actually thinks condos are a good idea. They tried to shove them down everyone’s throat in the 80s and 90s. Those who held out got a detached for the same price.

    What separates this generation of young adults from previous ones is the manipulation of social media allows you all to be convinced that something is normal when it is very much not normal.

  • Mortgage Guy 3 months ago

    Gov trying very hard to prop up apartment prices. Moving the Bond purchases from the transparency of the Bank of Canada’s asset portfolio, to the private assets purchased with national debt should be a much bigger red flag to the public than it is.

    • Peter Kelsey 3 months ago

      They can try to preserve inefficiencies, but that just makes other parts of the economy less efficient. This is how they create a mountain out of a molehill.

    • Luke 3 months ago

      If poor people want to ignore what the gov is doing to them, that’s on them. Let them buy into the predatory BS, it’s their ass that’s being exploited.

    • Amatsi 3 months ago

      Actually the feds and boc have been doing whatever they can to shore up prices of condos and housing since 2022. It’s obvious that both groups see a major crash coming, but are willing to do whatever they can to postpone ittill after the election. This is made even worse since they filed to take any measures to protect consumers, or theeconomy, just themselves and the banks.

  • Rachel 3 months ago

    Condos aren’t cost efficient to build, so how is this possible for prices to fall? The answer is they can’t be.

  • Yusef 3 months ago

    The reason the gov is all in on this ponzi scheme is they fund their scams with it. How much is the development fee on each of these units? $100k or something absurd?

    It’s not just a cash grab from developers and investors. It’s also a cash grab from politicians who see it funding the unnecessary public works they generate for their kickback clientele.

  • Amatsi 3 months ago

    The big issue is that condos are often bought not to live in but to invest in. Typically owners have little or no equity, and are very high risk.
    The reason they out performed remarked was that all the pent up demand in places like the gta and vcr ended up buying what they could afford, condos since 2022. Now that only afool would think that they will go up now, don’t expect any recovery.

  • Mark Bayly 3 months ago

    Condo builders are renting because they can’t sell A hundred thousand vacant condos Not a great investment.

    • So K 3 months ago

      100,000 vacant condos should quickly bring the supply problem into balance. It should also bring relief to renters. Something to think about then – why is that not happening?

      Could it be exorbitantly high prices? Then the solution inevitably will be for prices to adhere to the time proof and brutal economic principle – “reversion to mean”.

  • Don smith 3 months ago

    Remember the road runner cartoon where he goes over a cliff. That’s the future of the condo market.All this guff about a few points of the bank rate bringing back buyers is nonsense .Even the stupid buyers now know the market is falling and will wait till it hits bottom be it 6 months or 6 years away.Currently we have frustrated sellers who cannot get the price they want.Soon it will be panicked sellers who cannot sell fast enough before it falls more. No,

  • Rosco valev 3 months ago

    Canadian average price means nothing and is a worthless Canada is a big country with many different real estate markets. The big cities are unaffordable and high-priced and the smaller cities and towns throughout the country are quite affordable and have much lower prices. So when you really think about it the Canadian average price that they keep quoting at the real estate association is a joke. Even Bulgaria has different real estate markets in such a small country.

    • Omar 3 months ago

      It never fails. Some clown that doesn’t understand why averages are important thinks it’s irrelevant because it doesn’t tell him what they need.

      Do you also think other things you don’t understand are useless? gravity? physics? How about diapers and kids movies?

  • Rosco valev 3 months ago

    The bubble popped in 1929. You have no idea what it was like in the dirty thirties my parents told me stories. I’ve been a lot of people at my age who knew a lot of people who grew up in the 30s and saw the devastation starvation and homelessness. So are you bubble poppers out there be careful what you wish for. The unintended consequences can affect you worse than you will ever imagine. Sure the rich will get poor but the poor will be so poor they’ll die of starvation probably bringing about civil war and unrest.

  • Rosco valev 3 months ago

    I know what living under communism is like. Being there done that and lived it. Much like what we have in Canada today only much worse which I am sure if Trudeau gets reelected will be even worse and worse and worse.

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