Canada’s population is shrinking for the first time since Confederation, but not all provinces are shrinking. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) Q1 2026 population estimates show a 0.25% decline (-103.5k people) to 41.47 million, with most of the drop coming from Ontario. Meanwhile, Alberta is the sole province growing—a divergence shaped by tighter immigration policy hitting some provinces hard, while Alberta’s focus on attracting domestic talent continues to pay off.
Canada’s Unprecedented Population Decline
For those that need a refresher, Canada’s population has contracted by 0.43% (-179.6k people) since peaking in Q3 2025. It’s an unprecedented contraction, given how rare population declines are in Canada.
The drop is largely attributed to tightening policy on temporary residents. But policy isn’t the only driver. BC and Ontario were already bleeding people to interprovincial migration before the changes took effect. The outflows have persisted even as immigration slowed—a structural problem policy alone won’t solve.
Most of Canada’s Population Decline Is In Ontario
Canadian population change by province: Q1 2026, in thousands of people.
Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.
Most of the national decline has been concentrated in Ontario, where the population fell 0.34% (-54.89k) in Q1 2026, representing 53% of the national loss. At 16.14 million people, the province has shed 0.75% (-121.78K) of its population since its Q3 2025 peak— roughly 68% of the national decline peak.
Immigration policy has certainly accelerated the decline, but Ontario’s real problem is older. Annual growth in the province peaked in Q2 2024—well before policy tightened—as residents fled to more affordable regions. Ontario ignored its domestic outflows in favor of focusing on immigration-driven growth, and now it’s left with neither.
Quebec’s Population Shrunk By 24.2k People In Q1
In a distant second place is Quebec, where the population shrunk 0.27% (-24.2k) in Q1 2026, representing 23.4% of the national drop. Its population peaked in Q3 2025, in line with the national trend. But virtually all of the province’s decline occurred in Q1 alone. In other words, the province is just arriving at Ontario’s party.
BC’s Population Is Shrinking At The Fastest Rate of Any Province
As always, BC is punching above its weight in all the wrong places. The province’s population fell 0.43% (-24.7k) in Q1 2026, driven by temporary resident losses and interprovincial migration. At 5.66 million, the population has contracted 0.73% (-41.46k) since its peak.
BC has seen a similar trend to Ontario, where temporary residents and interprovincial migration have been grinding away at the province’s growth. As Canada’s most expensive province, it’s no surprise young adults are fleeing for more affordable regions.
Alberta Is The Only Province Growing
Alberta is the sole province to buck the trend and see its population grow. Its population increased 0.14% (+7.3k) in Q1 2026 to 5.05 million— a record high. The province has grown 1.2% (+59.97k) over the past year, as it attracts young adults fleeing BC, Ontario, and beyond.
Canada’s immigration-driven growth masked structural vulnerabilities. BC and Ontario banked on real estate booms to fuel expansion, and now face a brutal reality: their young professionals are fleeing to cheaper regions. Meanwhile, Alberta focused on domestic talent with a simple pitch—affordability—and is reaping the rewards. Provinces betting on affordability and sustainable growth are winning. Those betting on perpetual real estate booms and infinite rent growth are losing.
Young person with a 6 figure job. Honestly looking to move to Alberta. My apartment in south west Ontario is 1,950 a month. I can’t afford my hometown in Peterborough. If you can’t afford something moving tends to trend to the young people who want to hit those mile stones of home ownership. Starting a family. Or stay single and stuck renting somewhere with an aging population of Ontario.
The other main drover of growth in alberta is a good economy. The rest of canada seems content to believe that real estate and banking can support populations that have skyrocketed.
The problem is that high cost of living, urban sprawl are not attractive to investors. While bc on and qc used to have good access to us markets, the current stance in ottawa is going to drive that down even more.