Canada’s population is shrinking at the fastest pace on record according to Statistics Canada (StatCan). The latest Q1 2026 population estimates reveal the first annual decline ever, driven by a sharp shift in immigration policy. The agency warns the declines will see revisions in the upcoming months as Canada softens its stance on immigration throttling. At least one Big Six bank acknowledges this will reduce the population contraction, but warns it won’t be enough to change the trend.
Canada Lost 103,500 People In Q1 2026
Canada’s population fell 0.25% (-103.5k) in Q1 2026 to 41.47 million, marking the first back-to-back quarterly drop in Canadian history. Since peaking in Q3 2024, the total contraction sits at 0.4% (-179.6k)—the lowest level in roughly 18 months.
On the surface, rolling back over a year doesn’t sound catastrophic. However, these are unprecedented circumstances for Canada. “The first annual population decline since Confederation and a clear sign of how abruptly the demographic backdrop is shifting,” warns National Bank of Canada (NBC) economist Kyle Dahms.
Canada Warns Revisions Will Shrink Declines, Experts Doubt It Matters
The population decline is almost entirely driven by non-permanent residents (NPRs). The NPR population fell 6% (-171.3k) to 2.68 million in Q1 2026, 14.7% (-461.7k) lower than last year. Since peaking at 3.15 million in Q4 2024, the segment has plunged 15.1% (-472.7k).
This is another unprecedented population shift for Canada. StatCan has already flagged that revisions are coming—recent policy changes, including Quebec’s measures announced days ago, will shrink the reported outflows. But economists aren’t convinced the revisions change the trend.
“While revisions may adjust the magnitude of the Q4 decline, the underlying direction is unmistakable: Canada’s demographic engine is cooling rapidly, with broad implications for labour supply, housing demand and the economic outlook,” explains Dahms.
This isn’t the first sign that Canada’s policymakers are uncomfortable with the immigration restrictions they imposed. A recent Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) report reviewed the latest immigration policy update, and the country is using accounting schemes, and delaying its self-imposed timeline by a year to hit its target.
StatCan has been remarkably vocal about its population undercount in recent months. Meanwhile, the agency has been notably quieter about the population overcount it previously acknowledged—one spanning at least 30 years. Funny how there’s always more effort to find the missing growth than to own overstated growth.
No one believed the population growth narrative until they went into overdrive in 2022. By the gov’s logic we should have added 100k homeless people every year or some non-sense.
They want to bring in 60 million people from India.
Adding another million uber drivers or government workers won’t help the economy
Whoa, hold on there cowboy, the population numbers assume that everyone whose visa expires leaves. We know who this involves mostly, and we all know that isn’t happening, although it’s true plenty are draining the cash in their HELOC’s and maxing out cash withdrawals from their credit cards before getting on the next flight outta here.
Since there is no tracking on exit we don’t actually know who is leaving.. it’s all based on the “honour system” ………………….. yeah right