Canada

Canada Is Now Completing 2 Homes Per Person Added To The Population

Canada was building a lot of homes before the pandemic, and they’re arriving. Unfortunately, there’s not nearly as many people to fill them as expected. The number of homes completed was more than twice as high as the population growth in Q3 2020. The ratio is more than seven times higher than it was during the same quarter last year.

Canada Built 2 New Homes Per Person Last Quarter

Canada is seeing more than two homes completed per person added to the population. In Q3, the quarterly population increase fell to 25,384 people. The number of homes completed actually made an increase to 51,865 homes. This works out to 2.26 homes completed per person added to the population in the quarter. To contrast, during the same quarter last year, this number was just 0.29 homes per person. This is a massive increase, not seen since before the Great Recession. 

Canadian Housing Completions To Population Growth

The ratio of completed homes to person added to the population across Canada.

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Better Dwelling.

Ontario’s Ratio of Homes To People Is 9x Last Year

Ontario represents more than a third of the population increase, but has a slightly lower ratio of completions. In Q3, the quarterly population increased by 10,517 people, with 18,782 homes completed. The ratio works out 1.79 homes per person, almost 9x the ratio of last year. Not as high as the national level, but a lot more than usual.

Ontario Housing Completions To Population Growth

The ratio of completed homes to person added to the population across Ontario.

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Better Dwelling.

BC Is Completing 1.83 Homes Per Person

BC’s population grew less than a fifth of last year’s growth, but is seeing completions run a little faster than Ontario. In Q3 the population grew by 5,308 people, with 9,795 homes completed. The ratio works out to 1.83 homes per person the population grew by, almost 5x the ratio last year. A lot more housing is being completed, but not quite the acceleration Ontario is seeing. 

B.C. Housing Completions To Population Growth

The ratio of completed homes to person added to the population across B.C.

Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Better Dwelling.

There’s a couple of notes to keep in mind before coming to a conclusion. The population is an estimate, and may actually be higher or lower. The average home also has more than one person in it. This means the takeaway isn’t necessarily the previous numbers mean under building. Larger homes built could fit more numbers in, or composition make up can change. The takeaway is, the most homes are being delivered in a very long time. This is likely to add downward pressure to prices.

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8 Comments

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  • Lawrence J 7 months ago

    The same politicians that wanted the borders shut down for “safety,” now feel it’s totally fine to open them up all of a sudden. haha

    • OM 7 months ago

      No lockdown during the Great Recession and 90s recession, just no jobs and an increase in opportunities abroad relative to local housing costs. May not matter.

  • Jimmy 7 months ago

    Looks like supply will increase in quarter 1 and 2 2021? Hopefully, population growth will rebound but I am doubtful.

  • Shobhit 7 months ago

    When you say ‘Home’ in the article, is there a specific category of housing you are referring to? What’s being built at this rate? Detached houses, Townhomes, or only condos?

  • SH 7 months ago

    The 1.3 million immigrants set to be brought in over the next 2-3 years (plus TFWs and international students added to that) will “remedy” that situation.

    The Liberals will certainly not permit the wages of middle class Canadians to rise. Their objective is to ensure a constant labour over-supply.

  • CaughtYou 7 months ago

    Not sure that completions to population ratio is the best measure and skews the ratio upwards as not all of the population form households and need housing (ie. young adults living at home)

    • Mortgage Guy 7 months ago

      This is a real question. Why is it completions to population ratio is a measure for housing during a shortage, but not when there’s a surplus build?

  • Scott M 7 months ago

    Immigration approval is running strong and approved numbers increased to over 400K a year 2021-2023 which doesnt include newborns. Of course with travel really restricted these approved people are NOT here, but will arrive soon along with 400K+ per year.
    The numbers therefore are very misleading because of the pandemic… Recent surveys actually show Canada as being MORE desirable because of the pandemic…

    Reducing regulations and fees on construction would bring prices down and allow more competition, with fees on a new single family home of over $250K each its no surprise that they are expensive and only builders with MASSIVE pockets can afford the delays and red tape which can add years to a project in carrying costs….

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