Canada was building a lot of homes before the pandemic, and they’re arriving. Unfortunately, there’s not nearly as many people to fill them as expected. The number of homes completed was more than twice as high as the population growth in Q3 2020. The ratio is more than seven times higher than it was during the same quarter last year.
Canada Built 2 New Homes Per Person Last Quarter
Canada is seeing more than two homes completed per person added to the population. In Q3, the quarterly population increase fell to 25,384 people. The number of homes completed actually made an increase to 51,865 homes. This works out to 2.26 homes completed per person added to the population in the quarter. To contrast, during the same quarter last year, this number was just 0.29 homes per person. This is a massive increase, not seen since before the Great Recession.
Canadian Housing Completions To Population Growth
The ratio of completed homes to person added to the population across Canada.Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Better Dwelling.
Ontario’s Ratio of Homes To People Is 9x Last Year
Ontario represents more than a third of the population increase, but has a slightly lower ratio of completions. In Q3, the quarterly population increased by 10,517 people, with 18,782 homes completed. The ratio works out 1.79 homes per person, almost 9x the ratio of last year. Not as high as the national level, but a lot more than usual.
Ontario Housing Completions To Population Growth
The ratio of completed homes to person added to the population across Ontario.Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Better Dwelling.
BC Is Completing 1.83 Homes Per Person
BC’s population grew less than a fifth of last year’s growth, but is seeing completions run a little faster than Ontario. In Q3 the population grew by 5,308 people, with 9,795 homes completed. The ratio works out to 1.83 homes per person the population grew by, almost 5x the ratio last year. A lot more housing is being completed, but not quite the acceleration Ontario is seeing.
B.C. Housing Completions To Population Growth
The ratio of completed homes to person added to the population across B.C.Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC, Better Dwelling.
There’s a couple of notes to keep in mind before coming to a conclusion. The population is an estimate, and may actually be higher or lower. The average home also has more than one person in it. This means the takeaway isn’t necessarily the previous numbers mean under building. Larger homes built could fit more numbers in, or composition make up can change. The takeaway is, the most homes are being delivered in a very long time. This is likely to add downward pressure to prices.
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