Millions of Canadian visas expire next year and the country isn’t sure how to deal with it. That became clear when policymakers fumbled in parliament when answering what Canada plans to do if people refuse to leave. The Government of Canada (GoC) expects nearly 5 million visas to expire next year, and hopes those who lose residency will leave voluntarily. That’s likely what will happen in most cases, but the GoC has a long history of struggling to deal with those who refuse an order to leave—from global crime bosses to foreign warlords.
Canada Will See Nearly 5 Million Visas Expire By The End of Next Year
Canada has recently announced a complete change in direction for population growth. Policymakers spent the past few years explaining that record immigration growth will lead to an economic boom. Suddenly, with an election scheduled within the next year, they’ve begun to explain the exact opposite. Planned de-growth is now touted as accomplishing similar goals.
The current plan to accomplish this goal relies on shrinking the visa pool, primarily for temporary residents. It sounds logical until one realizes just how many visas are expiring soon. GoC data shows a whopping 4.9 million visas expire between December 2024 and December 2025.
This week, the issue of the millions of expiring visas was brought up in Parliament by Calgary MP Tom Kmiec. “… just on study permits, there are 766,000 by the end of December 2025,” the Conservative MP pointed out before asking, “How will your department ensure that those persons will leave?”
Canada Expects People Without Valid Visas To Leave Voluntarily
The response brought up more questions than answers, but first let’s discuss that astronomical number. Millions of visas expire annually, but not everyone is required to leave. The population doesn’t necessarily shrink either, since there’s churn—some people leave while others arrive. Canada almost always sees more people arriving than leaving, leading to positive growth.
Many will also qualify for residency or visa renewals. The GoC has set aside hundreds of thousands of permanent resident visas. Many temporary workers aren’t restricted by the new rules, and are likely to renew if they’re outside of the 43 major cities. Nearly 5 million people won’t be required to leave and have a path forward in Canada, though many will likely leave for onward migration.
That still leaves hundreds of thousands who want to stay but won’t be eligible. MP Marc Miller, who inherited the immigration portfolio, touched on many of those points—including those resistant to stay. “… the vast majority leave voluntarily and that’s what is expected,” explained the Liberal MP.
Most will leave voluntarily, but even MP Miller realizes that’s not always true. He recently expressed skepticism about a sharp uptick in refugee claims made by study permit holders after immigration changes. Though the minister noted his skepticism doesn’t dismiss due process, whether it’s valid will be proven or found false in court. A false claim only buys the person a few months, in theory.
Canada Has A Tough Time Removing People, Even When It Tries
Unlike the US, Canada doesn’t have a proactive approach to removing those who refuse to leave. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) had over 30k outstanding warrants last year, with hundreds considered a “public danger.” The issue has produced some notable incidents, leaving even the GoC perplexed.
One extreme example is former African Warlord Bill Horrace. The GoC had alleged he was ineligible to stay in the country, after alleging he voluntarily committed war crimes in Liberia. He lived in Canada for another 18 years, until he was murdered in an unrelated home invasion in a Toronto suburb.
There’s also the incident of Kwok Chung Tam, a major Triad syndicate’s alleged Dragon Head (leader). Only a handful of people are likely to know the name, and of those who do—most heard it at BC’s money laundering inquiry. Canadian authorities allege he is the inventor of the Vancouver Model, a money laundering technique that washes the proceeds of illicit activity such as fentanyl, though casinos and then again through mortgage payments. Before he helped to push home prices higher, he managed to circumvent a rejected immigration application back in 1996. The country spent more than 19 years trying to deport him. He was arrested in Cambodia and turned over to Chinese authorities in 2020.
Quite possibly the longest incident is that of former real estate developer Helmut Oberlander. He was granted citizenship in the 1960s and didn’t encounter any issues until the mid-90s. That’s when Canada began the process to strip him of status, on the basis he misrepresented his application when he omitted that he served as an interpreter for a NAZI death squad. A member of a most wanted NAZI war criminal list, he argued his service was involuntary. He was eventually stripped of his status in 2017, his bid to appeal rejected, and he died at the age of 97 waiting deportation orders in 2021.
Though MP Miller is correct. Most normal people struggle to survive a prolonged dispute with the government when stripped of legal status. The vast majority of normal people who remain without a legitimate visa tend to fly under the radar, and often find themselves in predatory work environments. It’s the well funded criminals that put up a fight that are unlikely to leave voluntarily, but they often have pretty good lawyers that prolong the process—sometimes indefinitely. At least the election will be out of the way before anyone actually finds out how this plan works.
No idea how they flipped on the position and now claim the opposite of their plans will do the same thing, and people are still just went along with it. People don’t vote for the governments they want, they get the ones they deserve. It’s not going to be better under the other guy but a diaper still needs to be changed so the next one can start soiling it.
Was just reading this comment and thinking you’re describing a real world example of “We have always been at war with Eastasia” from 1984.
Though a difference between George Orwell’s world and reality is an empire that does this isn’t winning, it’s pulling a final act of desperation before it loots the treasury and collapses.
The assessment here is correct. Most immigrants that overstay their visa are NOT a problem, and often we let the fall into predatory circumstances we should be ashamed of. The ones that blatantly have no regard for the system are usually substantial problems in the making.
Like money laundering. Some people are only escaping restrictive regimes that refuse to let their capital travel outside of the country despite being taxed heavily. But allowing that kind of gap opens up a problem, then next thing you know your banks are being fined around the world for having massive gaps exploited by the cartels.
This is like beneficial ownership. They promised it during the last election, people said they were going to save the country, then delayed it until god knows when. It won’t apply until after the next election, but potentially never.
They cut CRA collections and audit by 20% – who has the resources to scrutinize all these bare trusts even if the government ever gets around to enforcing the law they passed requiring their filings?
“Empire…it’s pulling a final act of desperation before it loots the treasury and collapses.”
I’m Canadian, and I want to leave. And find some place better run. Canadian Liberal government, supported by the ndp, is trashing Canada.
Trudeau’s Marc Miller rumblings of giving all newcomers citizenship right before the election.
If it weren’t for those pesky elections, everything would be unicorns and rainbows. Just ask the Russians, Chinese or Iranians…