Brace For Impact, Because There’s No Retreat From A Hard Landing : BMO

Canada’s oldest bank is the latest to warn investors to “brace for impact,” and get ready for a hard landing. BMO Capital Markets warned clients there’s no retreat from inflation. In a research note, the bank explained that high inflation leaves no choice but higher interest rates. Rates are rising at a speed and size that’s historically always produced a hard landing. 

North America Is Forecast For A Hard Landing Within A Few Months

North America’s recession risk is climbing fast, and the bank expects it to land soon. The risk of recession climbed above 50%,  well into the 60s according to other sources. BMO expects a recession to kick off in the first quarter of 2023. The forecast now sees a moderate recession, as the outlook worsens. 

The reason for the worsening outlook is due to elevated inflation and rate hikes. Stubbornly high inflation will slow GDP growth, but it’s elevated way above target. Inflation at this level leaves central banks with no choice but to use higher rates. Rising interest rates are the lesser of the two evils.

“Financial markets are now fully absorbing the Fed’s harsh message that there will be no retreat from the inflation fight; the steep back-up in global rates further bludgeoned stocks, resource prices, and commodity currencies this week given mounting recession odds,” wrote Douglas Porter, BMO’s chief economist. 

US Interest Rates To Climb Higher Than Canada

Interest rate forecasts keep climbing as inflation fails to respond fast enough. The US is expected to see its key interest rate rise to a range of 4.50% to 4.75% at the start of 2023. In Canada, BMO has  forecast a slightly lower peak interest rate of 4.25%. Such aggressive rate hikes have always resulted in a hard landing.

“The only other periods when the Fed has hiked rates that rapidly in the post-war era were in 1973, 1980, and 1981, and all three episodes ended in recession,” explained Porter. 
BMO is the latest institution to expect a recession, but they aren’t the only ones. Earlier this week, Oxford Economics wrote to clients to explain they now expect a moderate recession and sharp drop in home prices, instead of a soft landing.

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  • richard stanbridge 2 months ago

    i think that in the next 2 years the canadian $ will break through 60.00. the so called experts (economists), not so long ago said the central banks wouldn’t reach 3%. now they are saying no more than 4.5% next year. does anybody believe a word these clowns say. why would you when they are the cause of all the pain.

  • Ad 2 months ago

    The Canadian government knew of inflationary and the real estate situation for years. Instead of the BOC slowly raising rates of interest they let things escalate to the point where people won’t be able to pay mortgage rates something new? No, it happened in the 80’s and our fearless leaders did nothing.

    • Peter 2 months ago

      Your right, they knew for a long time. The difference this time than in the ’80s is that governments, public, private companies and citizens in general have over leveraged, over indebted themselves to a point that even a small move in rates will put tremendous pressure on those entities to service the debt. This will get severely worse before it gets better.

  • A wolf in sheep’s clothing 2 months ago

    Lol they have to create hope so all the suckers keep hanging on in the stock market…meanwhile all the large hedge funds have been heavy cash since last October/November and are still sitting on piles of it….houses are no different they need new buyers to keep the flow going so they paint a glass half full look when meanwhile they over filler the glass then knocked it over and broke the tap so no more water to keep this afloat people are going to hurt housing has way more pain coming plus stocks are going to get destroyed again s&p500 below 3k sometime next year hold into your hats shits about to blow

  • R 2 months ago

    Inflation should be stamped down through anti-price gouging legislation not rate hikes. Someone needs to sue the bank of Canada for market manipulation.

  • Aaron 2 months ago

    I estimate that when there is a 10-day period in which the US dollar does NOT make a new high, you need to stock your pantry

  • RB Filice 2 months ago

    I’m banking on “nobody knows nuthin” and acting accordingly!

  • John Ladouceur 2 months ago

    It is well known the so called experts admitted that their is no guarantee raising interest rates will bring inflation down. Our Liberal government’s desire to kill the energy secture is driving fuel prices up causing food prices to rise. Farmers are under attack because of another false climate crises and they will run farmers off their land like the Neitherlands. So in a nut shell Canada needs to dump this government’s agenda of killing the economy. Europe is returning to fossil fuels because their renewable energy doesn’t work. Save Canada and get rid of the NDP/ Liberal partnership.

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