Global real estate prices are reaching a level of overvaluation not seen in three decades. US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (the Fed) data shows the house price to income ratio pushed significantly higher last year. The ratio, a fundamental valuation indicator, shows that global house prices to incomes have now blown past the peak […]
It’s the credit, stupid. That’s basically the conclusion from a US Federal Reserve Board staff paper. The paper, Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?, examined price levers. It paid special attention to the recent home price surge during the pandemic. The ultimate conclusion is stimulated demand was responsible for the surge, not […]
Some countries lack corruption and some lack investigations revealing corruption. Canada feels like the latter after the data Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) shared. CISC might not ring a bell, because they operate largely behind the scenes. They provide law enforcement with intelligence on organized crime groups and track activity. The agency’s 2021 Report on […]
Canadian real estate prices got a big boost from central bank stimulus, sparking a speculative frenzy. That frenzy is coming to an end fast, with more than half of major markets off peak. A pullback is expected after rapid price increases for real estate markets. What’s unexpected is the pace of the pullback, possibly one […]
A global real estate correction has kicked off and Canada is expected to lead lower. That was the message from Goldman Sachs (GS) Research’s latest client note on rising rates. Excessively low rates stimulated record home sales and a multi-decade high for inflation. Now that rates are rising to cool that inflation, it’s removing home […]
Bubble Contagion? Bank of Canada Finds Suburban Real Estate Prices Outgrew The City Canadian real estate prices have made absurd gains over the past year, especially in big city suburbs. A new study from the Bank of Canada (BoC) looked at this phenomenon, observing the gap between city centers and the suburbs has been quickly […]
Canadian real estate has cooled even faster than bears assumed possible. The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) indicates it’s just getting started. If historic patterns hold true, the market will see all of 2022’s gains disappear by mid-summer. Unless something changes the trend, home prices are heading in the direction of improved affordability. Sales […]
Canadian real estate is probably fine, but the bank regulator just wants your lender to be extra safe. Earlier today, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) sent an advisory on real estate secured lending (RESL). OSFI, who oversees federally-regulated financial institutions (FRFIs), clarified expectations for risky mortgages. Lenders have been asked to […]
The global economy may be in for a bumpy ride, warns the central bank for central banks. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) broke down the environmental variables typical of those preceding a hard landing. Most advanced economies fit this bill and are advised to start tackling inflation immediately. Those in the worst circumstances are […]
Canada’s booming population growth is obfuscating a trend policymakers should be watching — emigration. Emigration, the act of moving from a country, saw an unusual surge in Q1 2022. It was the biggest Q1 for emigration in a half decade, shows Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data. The recent surge marks the end of a trend […]
