A Large Canadian Real Estate Brokerage Has Forecast Prices Will Rise Up To 20%

It doesn’t matter if your city just saw massive price gains; they might see another year of excessive growth, interest rates be damned. That’s essentially the take from Re/max, one of Canada’s largest estate brokerages. The firm is forecasting massive growth across the country next year, with markets rising up to 20% over the next 12 months. Cities like Toronto are even forecast to see home prices rise more than they did with falling interest rates. 

Muskoka Real Estate Is Forecast To See The Most Growth

They expect the most growth in small markets that just saw a massive increase. Muskoka is forecast to see the average home price rise to $749,357 in 2022, up 20% from this year. That’s on top of the 30% growth Muskoka saw over the past year. The region is now tied for first with Moncton. 

Canadian Real Estate Price Forecast 2022

The annual percent change for the average sale price of a home, as well as the Remax forecast for 2022.

Source: Re/max; Better Dwelling.

Moncton Real Estate Tied For Fastest Growth Rate In Their Forecast

Moncton’s average home prices are much cheaper, though. The brokerage forecasts an average home price of $332,735 in 2022, up 20% from this year. Once again, that follows this year’s annual growth of 27%. Imagine living in Moncton and not seeing your income rise over 50% in two years? Because that’s what you’d need to happen to mitigate the increased ownership costs. 

Barrie Real Estate Was Last Year’s Biggest Gainer, and It’s Forecast To Soar Next Year

Last year’s biggest gainers are also forecast to see a little more excessive growth this year. Barrie real estate was the biggest gainer, posting a 53% gain over the past year. The brokerage is forecasting an average sale price of $88,500 next year, another 15% increase on top of the past year’s record gain. 

Oakville Real Estate Is Forecast To Be The Most Expensive Market

Oakville, a suburb of Toronto, is expected to remain the most expensive real estate market in Canada. The average sale price is expected to rise to $1,696,646 in 2022, up 7.50% from this year. That’s on top of the 21% growth seen in 2021. It currently is the most expensive market, but it’s forecast to put an almost $300,000 gap between second place, which is York Region. 

Canadian Real Estate Price Forecast 2022

The forecast dollar value of the average sale price of a home in 2022. 

Source: Re/max; Better Dwelling.

Vancouver Real Estate Is Expected To See Growth Fall, But Remain High

Greater Vancouver real estate will follow this year with big gains. The city is forecast to hit an average sale price of $1,294,140 in October, up 5.50% from this year. It follows the 13.0% gain made this year. Vancouver’s forecast is relatively modest compared to other regions, but it’s also a much more expensive place already.  

Toronto Real Estate Growth Is Forecast To Grow Faster Next Year

After underperforming this year, Toronto real estate is forecast to see even bigger gains next year. The average sale price is expected to hit $1,160,491 in October, up 10% from this year. Over the past year, the average sale price has increased 7%, a substantial amount but not quite as much as other cities. 

The Re/max real estate forecast is a little ambitious, especially considering the expected interest rate environment. Falling interest rates have boosted growth, but they’re expected to rise next year. Rising rates only appear to cool growth a little in this forecast though, with fast-rising regions seen as still growing at a breakneck pace. 

29 Comments

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  • Gerry 1 year ago

    How does interest rates rising have no effect on housing in Toronto? Growth doesn’t even slow, it gets higher as people have less credit?

    • GTA Landlord 1 year ago

      It’s not possible. Unless they’re only forecasting current rates and assuming nothing changes until it does. It would be a weird way to forecast but it wouldn’t suprise me.

      • Vishal 1 year ago

        I get the feeling that’s why the author mentioned rates several times. It’s just not possible to see the same growth OR BIGGER.

      • Chang Xiu 1 year ago

        Easily possible when the BoC is forecasting 2-3 hikes in 2022 which will bump the rate 0.5-0.75% and bond yields are likely going to be tame keeping down fixed as well.

  • Eric Dixon 1 year ago

    Between this and the BOC only seeing two bubbles, I think it’s fair to say the industry is scared crapless of running out of buyers.

    • Ben 1 year ago

      A little bit of narrative ramp up. Don’t forget this whole crapshow only survives if every keeps buying. Even the BoC needs to sell people.

    • Antonio Paventi 1 year ago

      We’re NOT running out of buyers… we are RUNNING out of homes to sell!!! VERY LOW inventory… this is why the forecast is plus 20% or more next year… people don’t want to sell only to take on larger mortgages when they buy!

  • sslava 1 year ago

    bull.hit

    • Kate Wright 1 year ago

      Barrie +53% in one year. Going to rise another 15% next year? Numbers have no meaning at this point.

  • Recruiter Man 1 year ago

    As always, the BoC/government and Industry are pumping up the market. Buy now or forever be priced out! Its working and I am concerned this is the beginning of neo feudalism.

    • Whiskey Foxtrot 1 year ago

      The BOC’s fear is deflation. They’ll lie cheat and steal to make sure you think everything will be more expensive if you wait, and pressure you into buying today.

    • Kris 1 year ago

      we are already in neo-feudalism. First time home buyers are screwed for life by house owing rich classes. And all government/BOC support is for rich home owners only. Reneters are screwed in big way for life with no option left i feel.
      Please note federal government do support 1-2 million dollar aid here and there to show they are really concerned. 1million is not even 1 house in todays cost.

  • Dennis_K 1 year ago

    Does anybody ever wonder why real estate brokerages & other ‘experts’ make such price (increase) projections in the first place? What’s the objective in doing so? What’s the benefit, and to whom?

    Such projections only serve to foment more paranoia (or euphoria) in the minds of those needing (or wanting) to buy, causing a ‘rush’ into the market, exacerbating an already bad situation.

    But why would they do this? Aren’t agents & brokerages supposed to be working in the interests of their clients (and particularly to maintain compliance with the realtor’s Code of Ethics in Ontario)? It seems such projections would only serve the interests of everyone in the sales chain, to the detriment of those who have the most at stake: the buyers. Just stoke the market with more buyers, more competition, more bidding wars, …… and voila ….. your price increases come true.

    A perfect moral hazard if you ask me. You announce the price increase projections in order to stoke the market, and if it works, you make more money and there’s no accountability for any of the social consequences of all this money getting tied up in warehousing people (as well as acting as an outlet for dirty and black money). If you’re wrong, who cares – nothing happens to you. No downside.

    I wonder if the real estate profession could be charged criminally under Canada’s Bill C-51 for threatening the ‘security the Canada’ with such things….. financial terrorism if you will. Meh – probably not.

    • Kate 1 year ago

      Nicely stated.

    • Raman singh 1 year ago

      They are destroying the dreams of many first-time homebuyers doing this.

  • Brian 1 year ago

    When the brokerage firm, or some big shots, jointly work with people on the inside they can stop issuing building permits. We have already seen the news about building permits drop which is happening now! When no houses are being built or at least not enough houses being built, guess where the price will go?

    I can guarantee their prediction will be correct if they are strong enough to manipulate the market!!!!

    Give you a example in Toronto. Does anyone remember what happen with the laneway house topic? Years passed, about 100-200 laneway houses built in Toronto. Why?

  • V 1 year ago

    Think about this. The first realtor that ever decieved me and ripped me off was a REMAX agent……these people are deceptive and cannot be taken for their word. All realtors only push a narrative to sell more houses. Dispicable humans!

  • Simon Chan 1 year ago

    hate the news but love that you’re back on Vancouver. We thought we lost you to Toronto. Haha. Keep up The good work.

  • JK 1 year ago

    definitely moving to the States, lol

  • Ken Davenport 1 year ago

    Barrie 2020 average looks $100,000 or low, so 53% increase is wrong. 2021 ten month average looks in the right range though. November average even higher – nearly $850,000. More than a fifth of properties sold last month over $1 million. Welcome to the metaverse!

  • Jappan Singh 1 year ago

    How much is the wage going to grow? 2% possibly.

  • Baron 1 year ago

    This is clearly Canada’s time and they are going all in to really take the lead here.
    Global housing superpower.
    Industry? No
    Manufacturing? No
    Tech? No
    Housing? YEAH BUDDAY!!

  • Anthony Pelletier 1 year ago

    Lol they very literally plugged recent home price data into Excel’s ‘forecast’ tool and took the median forecast. This isn’t rooted in any fact or logic, it’s just what the calculator is telling us.

  • vim 1 year ago

    People should be connecting rising prices with rising temperatures.

    Pick a number, say for every 1/10 of a degree of global warning, prices go up 10%.

    What a great deal, right!

  • Jason 1 year ago

    Re/max just trying to stoke investor demand

  • questions guy 1 year ago

    the magic 8-ball strikes again! 🎱

  • Anonymous 1 year ago

    20% annualized gains in perpetuity, 0 risk. Borrow all you’ve got, borrow against your house, sell your unborn children, get in now on the best investment in the world 😉 Why not? Everyone else is doing it! This is all sustainable. Make more than the median household income each month, buy in the GTA now!!!

  • Pete Nillson 1 year ago

    Um, Remax: did Québec already separate? The “Canadian Real Estate Price Forecast 2022” leaves out all of French Canada. Montréal has an active market!

  • Houseprice 1 year ago

    Condos are selling at 800k+, detached at 1.5m..rentals at 2k…let’s go to airport to welcome new immigrants who land in anticipation of better life..work all life…pay mortgage…BOC is not concerned…feds were never concerned anyway..interest rate would not make difference.

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