The Canadian economy has stalled, and the details offer little reassurance. Real GDP was flat in August for a second straight month, according to Statistics Canada (StatCan). Retail and credit card activity helped support output, an ominous combination as credit industry reports point to rising balances and delinquencies. The agency’s preliminary September estimate suggests that […]
Canada’s national housing agency is bearish on real estate over the near term. The CMHC’s latest forecast shows Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) mortgage arrears climbing into 2027. The trend is driven almost entirely by a surge in Ontario. That suggests they might be underestimating the fallout, since home prices in other provinces are only just […]
The Ontario real estate downturn is expected to worsen. Mortgage arrears in the province are approaching 2008 levels, according to the CMHC. The risk is even further amplified in Greater Toronto, especially with private lenders. The agency warns Ontario’s sharpest and most persistent surge in arrears will persist through mid-2027. Ontario’s Real Estate Boom and […]
Canada’s central bank raised its key policy rate as it tries to tame rising inflation. The Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked its overnight rate 25 basis points to 2.5% this morning, its first hike in over 3 years. In the accompanying report, the BoC warns of elevated inflation into mid-2028. Higher input and financing costs […]
Canada’s real estate correction has largely been concentrated in one province, but that may change soon. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows prices fell in September. All but one province moved lower, with BC going from resilient to leading the way lower in the past year. Other provinces, some of which hit record highs […]
Canada’s real estate industry often argues the central bank should ignore shelter inflation and keep rates low to boost supply. A new Bank of Canada (BoC) staff paper tests both claims, and neither holds up as a blanket rule. The researchers find that ignoring shelter inflation during a demand-driven boom is destabilizing to the economy […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Real Estate Prices To Fall Even Further: Oxford Economics The Canadian housing crash is already the largest on record, and it may not be over. Oxford Economics is forecasting prices and sales falling further through early 2027. Higher rates, elevated energy […]
Greater Halifax real estate may be running out of luck. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows a six-year high for new listings in September. Sales also rose, but couldn’t prevent the second-largest monthly price drop on record. Halifax Home Prices Post Second-Largest Monthly Drop On Record The price of a typical home sold through […]
Oxford Economics expects Canadian home prices to fall further as rising mortgage rates, weak hiring, and stretched valuations weigh on demand.
Canadian borrowing is losing steam just as interest rate hikes come back into focus. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows mortgage credit posted its smallest August increase since 2013, pushing annual growth to a pace rarely seen outside housing corrections. With nearly a third of new mortgages carrying variable rates, renewed tightening could further throttle […]
