Greater Vancouver real estate only has a handful of buyers, but they’re bidding up prices for some reason. Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR), formerly REBGV, shows home prices made a substantial jump in March. The increase occurred despite it being one of the weakest months for demand in decades, and the most well-supplied market in recent history.
Greater Vancouver Real Estate Prices Jump Despite Weak Sales
The composite benchmark price of a home in Greater Vancouver.
Source: CREA; GVR; Better Dwelling.
Greater Vancouver composite home prices made a 5-digit jump last month. The benchmark price of a typical home rose 0.5% to $1,190,900 in March. Annual growth remained 0.6% lower, but it emphasizes just how sharp last month’s increase was. Just one more month of new record low sales and lofty inventory, and prices could rise back into positive annual growth.
Greater Vancouver Home Price Growth Returns To Negative Territory
The 12-month change to Greater Vancouver’s benchmark home price, in percentage points.
Source: CREA; GVR; Better Dwelling.
Vancouver Homes Sales Were Amongst The Worst In Decades
Greater Vancouver real estate sales continued to slow even further last month. The board’s data shows just 2,091 sales in March, down 13.4% from last year. Outside of March 2020, when the pandemic kicked off physical buying restrictions, this March was the worst in over two decades.
At the same time, sellers weren’t as deterred as buyers. The GVR saw 6,455 new listings on the MLS in March, up 29% from last year. Lofty inventory should have helped balance the market and ease price pressures, but the opposite happened.
Sales are much lower, and new inventory is higher than historically seen. Sales are 36.8% below the 10-year average for March. At the same time, new listings are 15.8% higher—meaning this is the most well-supplied market in years.
The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) was just 32% last month, indicating an oversupply for the price point. Typically, prices fall when this occurs, but they’re heading in the wrong direction with even less demand. Bizarre.
Even the GVR board was perplexed. They were primarily concerned that buyers were embracing market uncertainty despite improvements in supply and financing.
“Prices have eased from recent highs, mortgage rates are among the lowest we’ve seen in years, and there are more active listings on the MLS® than we’ve seen in almost a decade,” said Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data.
Adding, “Sellers appear ready to engage — but so far, buyers have not shown up in the numbers we typically see at this time of year.”
Buyers have largely been absent despite a well-supplied market with mortgage rates slashed in half over the past two years. Only a handful of buyers have been willing to jump in, and were willing to send prices higher—even if the properties have some of the lowest competition in years.
Who are these legendary buyers willing to pay more than the going rate when there is such abundance of supply?
Are these bizarre transactions occurring with real Canadians or corporations?
Is the GVRD real estate market a giant “Painting the Tape” scam?
This measure by itself means nothing. If only a single house is sold, but sells 5% higher than the year before, we still consider that a seller’s market ? I think not.
The real way to calculate the current downturn would be to count the total money changing hands. Did it go up, or did it go down. I think we all know the answer to this one.
This is exactly what happened in 1980-1981 just before the major housing collapse.
Sellers market tend to drive prices up, buyers markets tend to drive prices down. The final sales price depends on the list price.
Lots of houses are listing high… There’s deals out there though. My wife and I just bought exactly what we wanted for a good price after 3 years on the sidelines.
Good time negotiate, which I believe is what the author and board are both hinting at. Whether people want to negotiate is another story.
If none of the lower priced houses are selling due to caution, the average price will rise. Probably what is selling is only the expensive properties to wealthy cash buyers but even those will have crashed in price to get a sale.
Wiyj all these listings the average house will have probably dropped in value signi
Lot values in Vancouver (ie. actual Vancouver market, not the Valley or peripherals) will never decline due to the developer “put”. There remains rabid demand for land assembly to build multi family and everyone knows nobody builds single family anymore. The stats are super clear on that. There are duplexes and multiplexes and purpose-built rentals popping up everywhere and the government is going to subsidize that activity even more going forward.
I hate “GVR” stats as they over simplify the market. Yes, condos and more satellite areas that were bid up during the pandemic will decline. If you’re waiting for detached house prices in Vancouver proper to decline, don’t hold your breath. A developer will buy it if you don’t and put up a triplex post haste so they can sell each unit for $1.5M-$2M. Based on the current housing platforms in the election, they’ll probably get a tax break to do it too.