The Canadian labour market was booming last month—at least when it came to statistical modeling. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) shows 5-digit job growth and a plunging unemployment rate in November. Reality is a little different, as most benefits only exist in the statistical model. The gap between headline reports in the […]
Canada’s largest banks are still navigating increased borrower stress. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows mortgage arrears have reached a 5 year high in September. Arrears have been climbing aggressively, and are amplified by falling total mortgages. With banks holding ~150,000 fewer mortgages since peak—each delinquent mortgage holds more weight. Canadian Mortgage Arrears Rate Still […]
The Canadian economy expanded faster than analyst forecasts, but it isn’t what it seems. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw unusually large growth in Q3. It sounds like good news, but diving into the data revealed the surge was entirely due to superficial accounting mechanics. Compounding the problem further—the agency warns […]
Canadian Parliament is floating longer mortgages as a housing fix—but does it actually improve affordability? An update from the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) finds that stretching amortizations from 25 to 40 years lowers monthly payments, but borrowers end up paying 75% more in interest. The non-partisan agency also warns the analysis doesn’t account for broader […]
Greater Toronto’s new home market took another hit as weak demand met falling-but-still-lofty prices. BILD GTA and Altus Group data show prices slipped in October—but not enough to draw buyers off the sidelines. Sales fell to a record low for the month, while inventory hovered near multi-year highs. The gap between what’s for sale and […]
The Great Canadian Real Estate Downturn isn’t easing—in fact, it’s accelerating beneath the surface. Canadian Bankers Association (CBA) data shows the mortgage arrears rate climbed again in August, hitting the highest in nearly four years. However, the more important issue is flying under the radar: an unprecedented contraction in total mortgage volumes at banks. A […]
Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories. Canadian Real Estate Canadian Real Estate Prices Fall To 4-Year Low As Inventory Sets Record Canadian real estate prices continue to cool after the pandemic-era boom. A typical home fell to $679,900 in October, a 20.2% (-$171,700) drop from the March 2022 peak. The drop […]
Canadian retail sales are weaker but not as weak as anticipated. Statistics Canada (StatCan) retail sales fell in September, with the drop attributed to a single (but large) category. While retail sales are holding up stronger than the headline data suggests, the longer-term issue of stagnation remains. Canadian Retail Sales Flat Excluding Gas and Vehicles […]
Canadian consumer borrowing is suddenly accelerating, and home equity borrowing was no exception. Bank of Canada (BoC) data shows Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) borrowing just saw the biggest September growth since 2009. The increase is part of a broader trend that’s pushed annual growth to the highest rate in nearly 13 years. What […]
Canadian households are borrowing as rates come down, but not in the way many anticipated. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows household debt made an unusually sharp climb in September. That growth wasn’t driven by mortgages—even though they make up the bulk of household credit. Even the mortgage growth that did occur likely reflects old commitments, […]
