Canadian inflation is slowing, but most households are unlikely to be feeling that relief. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated in January, fueling speculation that rate cuts may be on the horizon. A closer look reveals the entire deceleration can be accounted for by just mobile phone plans. Not because households are forking […]
The Canadian economy is doing better than expected, and things will slow but be fine. That’s the takeaway one gets reading the summary of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, a dive into the full 44-page report reveals that narrative is a statistical mirage, supported by contradictory data points the […]
Temporary factors have muted inflation, but they’re starting to fade. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated in December. Excluding gas sends the value soaring, hitting the Bank of Canada’s upper bound. One bright spot is the slowdown in shelter costs, but the distribution was uneven. Only homeowners are seeing slowing […]
Canadian inflation has been driven by two key pressure points in recent years: shelter and food. Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) data shows shelter inflation is finally cooling, helping to keep the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stable in November. But BMO Capital Markets is warning investors that the other half of the problem is flaring up again—food […]
One of Canada’s biggest drivers of inflation is overstated, according to a Big Six bank. A new report from CIBC Economics warns investors that official CPI rent inflation overstates growth. This implies the Bank of Canada (BoC) may be keeping rates higher than needed. It’s a disturbing argument with one problem: It’s not clear if […]
Canada’s central bank is running out of excuses. Headline inflation surged in September, according to Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rising headline inflation is certainly a concern, but it was dwarfed by what the agency omitted: the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core inflation metrics. The BoC recently floated the idea of […]
Canada’s real estate addiction may limit the central bank’s ability to respond to loosening conditions. The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its September meeting, as expected. Markets are pricing in more cuts, but BMO economists caution that moving too fast risks undoing recent housing market […]
The Canadian economy is cooling but inflation accelerated as the base effect from gasoline faded. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows CPI accelerated in August, with core measures still running hot and shelter costs returning to breakneck growth. That puts the Bank of Canada (BoC) in a tricky situation at the upcoming rate announcement, as it […]
Canadian headline inflation came down sharply but that doesn’t tell the full story. Statistics Canada data shows the headline consumer price index (CPI) climbed 1.7% year-over-year (YoY) in July, down from 1.9% in June. The deceleration was almost entirely due to gas prices, leading to a modeling skew. A deeper dive into the numbers reveals […]
Canadian inflation is cooling but remains hot enough to stop further rate cuts. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the headline consumer price index (CPI) stalled in May. That would typically be good news—if not for rising risks that inflation could accelerate again. In response, RBC believes the central bank’s easing cycle is over, and […]
