Greater Toronto real estate may be approaching its peak. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows the benchmark price generally climbed in June. Instead of moving all in one direction like the past few months though, it broke into segments. The 905 is doing much better than the City, which continues to underperform. So much that detached homes in the City have shed over $11,000 in price in just one month.
Greater Toronto Real Estate Prices Climbed Much More In The ‘Burbs Than The City
The price of a typical home across Greater Toronto moved higher, by a decent amount too. The composite price reached $1,050,300 in June, up 0.43% ($4,500) from a month before. Compared to a year ago, this is 19.92% ($174,466) higher. Most of those gains were in the 905 suburbs though. The burbs continue to outperform the city in general, across all segments.
Greater Toronto Benchmark Price
The price of a “typical” composite home across Greater Toronto.
Source: TRREB. Better Dwelling.
Breaking out the City of Toronto, we can see home price growth is stalling. The City’s composite benchmark hit $1,106,200 in June, up 0.03% ($300) from a month before. Compared to a year ago, prices are 12.17% ($120,018) higher. The annual growth accelerated significantly, but this was a base effect. In monthly terms, Toronto prices increased 1/15 the gain across the region.
Toronto Detached Home Prices Fall $11,000, While The 905 Is Still Rising
The detached market is where the polarizing of the market appears to be happening. The detached benchmark price reached $1,296,300 in June, up 0.52% ($6,700) from a month before. Compared to a year ago, this is 25.59% ($264,132) higher. Detached homes across Greater Toronto padded that annual number significantly.
In the City of Toronto, detached homes weren’t as lucky as the Greater region narrative. The City’s detached benchmark hit $1,537,100 in June, down 0.73% (-$11,300) from a month before. Compared to a year ago, prices are 18.87% ($244,007) higher. Prices are still significantly higher than last year, and annual growth accelerated. However, prices are still down three-quarters of a point in just a month. That’s a little odd, considering it’s the only segment that’s down. Though detached homes tend to lead the market.
Condo Prices Across Greater Toronto Are Rising Very Quickly
The price of a typical condo is finally starting to move higher, despite lagging last year. The condo benchmark price hit $642,600 in June, up 0.58% ($3,700) from a month before. Compared to a year ago, the benchmark is 9.04% ($53,275) higher. Greater Toronto condo prices hadn’t moved much since the beginning of the pandemic. That is, until February of this year. Since then, the benchmark price climbed almost $60,000, more than the annual increase.
Greater Toronto Benchmark Price Change
The annual percent change of TRREB’s benchmark price for all home types.
Source: TRREB. Better Dwelling.
In the City of Toronto, condos showed similar monthly, but smaller annual growth. The City’s condo benchmark hit $663,700 in June, up 0.58% ($3,300) from a month before. Compared to a year ago, prices are 7.4% ($45,730) higher. Just a few hundred short of the monthly number for the Greater Region. Almost $10,000 smaller than the annual price increase. It’s worth noting the price gap between a condo in the city and across the region is only 3% at this point. The flattening of prices is interesting, considering the historic meaning.
Greater Toronto real estate prices are moving higher, except in the City. Price fluctuations happen, and sometimes they rollback back a few bucks. However, the size of the drop for detached units is way too large to write it off as just a minor move. Typically detached homes lead the market, up or down. Watching the suburbs for a similar movement next month is something to keep an eye on.
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omg, what if we don’t have an unlimited supply of buyers with $2 million to buy a detached home in the city?
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$11k is a lot considering it’s the benchmark, and quality-adjusted and smoothed. If things are really hitting the fan, why are the suburbs still rising?
Same reason you cited. Detached homes in the middle of nowhere are quality-adjusted, but they might be trading 20 or 30% more than last year. It pushed the whole index up.
Not sure if I’ve seen that kind of movement in closer suburbs like Vaughan or Markham. Feels like those have mostly been the same-ish for a few weeks now.
People need to realize Toronto and Vancouver prices are way over priced. Their bubble can pop anytime. However other cities with high median income are way under valued. I would suggest do some home work and find those cities with higher median income and lower prices to invest in. The whole world printed tons of money, even if Canada increase interest rate it will not mean the rest of the world will too. With 1.3 million wealthy immigrants those under valued cities will shoot up.
Let me propose a theory: urban gems vs suburb housing are two different markets. Let me define the terms.
Urban Gems: detached house within 15 mins drive from downtown core. With a large private backyard / lot. Close to highway, shopping and commute.
Suburb housing is just some house in a suburb somewhere.
Now, the reason why near downtown is preferred is because all suburbs radiate from downtown. If you live downtown you essentially have access to all the suburbs. But the reverse is not true. For example, if you live in a suburb on the east side, it would be very inconvenient to travel to the west. However if you are near the downtown core you can access both. This will give you more options when it comes to career, entertainment and social life. Second point is large lots near downtown will never be created again near downtown. If you ever get new housing it will be high density. Hence the supply of urban gems are very limited compare to suburbs housing.
Therefore I think this article needs to understand these and realize the dynamic and value proposition of these two types of housing.
The Bank of Canada is monitoring this price drop closely. If the price drops again next month look out for increased mortgage backed security purchases to suppress mortgage rates. This is completely unacceptable to see prices falling in Toronto, the government needs to be stepping in to backstop any correction and ensure Canadian’s investments are protected