Canada

Toronto Condo Prices Hit A New All-Time High, Sales Decline Further

Toronto’s condo buyers are tapering off, but prices are still inching higher. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show the price of a condo apartment hit a new all-time high in September. Despite the rise in prices, sales are sliding faster than inventory, relieving some of the pressure to move higher.

Toronto Condo Prices Hit A New High

The price of a condo hit a new all-time high across Greater Toronto. TREB reported the price of a typical condo reached $506,300 in September, up 10.11% from last year. The City of Toronto saw prices hit $535,600, up 11.5% from the same time last year. Beyond the new all-time high, there’s a lot to unpack for asset price nerds.

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price

The price of a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The monthly and annual change gave mixed signs. Across TREB we saw a monthly increase of 0.16%, and an annual increase of 10.11%. The monthly increase is higher than last year, but the lowest we’ve seen since 2014. The annual increase is slightly better than the 9.94% we saw the month before, but not really all that much of a change.

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price Change

The annual percent change of price, for a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The City of Toronto saw a better monthly indicator, but a slightly worse annual one. The 0.37% monthly increase is more than twice the pace of growth as TREB, but also the slowest since 2014. The annual pace of growth is slower than the month before, but not all that much. The takeaway is buyers across TREB are undecided which direction prices should move.

Toronto Condo Median Sale Price Rises Over 9%

The median sale price was substantially higher across Greater Toronto. TREB reported a median sale price of $495,000 in September, up 9.27% from last year. The City of Toronto has a median sale price of $539,050, up 10.48% from last year. The median isn’t adjusted for size or quality like the benchmark, so don’t use it to figure out how much you’ll pay. Instead, it’s a better quality indicator of the direction of dollar flow.

Toronto Median Condo Sale Price

The median sale price of a condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condos Saw The Average Sale Price Rise Over 10%

The average sale price reached a new high in the city, but not the burbs. TREB reported an average sale price of $570,140 in September, up 10% from last year. The City of Toronto had an average sale price of $615,582, up 11.7% from last year. Like the median, the average sale price isn’t useful for figuring out how much a condo costs. Instead, it’s a better indicator of the direction of dollar flow.

Toronto Average Condo Sale Price

The average sale price of condo apartments in Toronto, and the suburbs.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condo Sales Fall Over 3%

The number of condo sales fell lower across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 2,829 sales in September, down 3.2% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,282 of those sales, a decline of 5.5% from last year. That means sales in the city fell much faster than those in the suburbs.

Toronto Condo Sales Vs. New Listings

The number of condo sales, vs newly listed condos per month in Toronto.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto Condo Inventory Falls Over 2%

The number of new condo listings fell across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 3,298 new condo listings in September, down 5.9% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,347 of those new listings, a decline of 5.51% from last year. Existing inventory helped to soften the drop in new listings.

The total number of active listings fell, but not as much as new listings. TREB reported 3,845 active listings in September, down 2.08% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,527 of those listings, down 3.54% compared to last year. For those paying close attention, inventory fell less than sales. That’s relieving some of the pressure on prices to move higher.

Toronto Active Condo Listings

The number of condo listings available for sale in Toronto.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The sales to active ratio for condos slipped lower. TREB’s ratio hit 46.58, and while the City of Toronto’s works out to 50.73%. CREA economists define a buyer’s market below 12%, a balanced market between 12% and 20%, and anything above that is considered a seller’s market. The lower the ratio, the harder it is for prices to move higher (beyond credit capacity). For context, Toronto’s ratio was last this low in July 2017, when price gains began to taper last year.

Toronto Condo Sales To Active Listings

The ratio of condo sales to active listings in Toronto. The higher the ratio, the more pressure on prices to increase.

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The condo market is still the best performing segment when it comes to price gains. However, sales falling faster than inventory is removing pressure on prices to move higher.

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39 Comments

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  • Reply
    Thuy 1 month ago

    In the long run, real estate prices ONLY GO UP. There’s a reason they say buy land, they aren’t making any more of it.

    • Reply
      neo 1 month ago

      That only works out if you don’t purchase at the end of a credit cycle and you are not over leveraged.

      • Reply
        Thuy 1 month ago

        The real estate cycle is 10 years normally. I know people think they’re going to buy a condo today, and move to a detached next year, but that’s not what happens. By the time they are ready, they stand to lose little.

    • Reply
      Brandon 1 month ago

      What is happening in Canada is exactly what happened in Japan from 1982-1990

      “Following the Plaza Accord in 1985, the yen appreciated from around 240 yen to the USD to about 120 yen in less than a year. In response, the Bank of Japan lowered interest rates from 5.5% down to 2.5% in 1987. This dramatic easing of monetary policy at a time of economic strength sparked an explosion of real-estate transactions and high stock prices. ”

      “In 1990 the Ministry of Finance put restrictions on the total loan volume of real-estate lending (Soryo-kisei) which caused an immediate and dramatic drop in the availability of credit. Other government restrictions resulted in the need for buyers to seek approval from the local ward office for transactions of land size over 100 square meters. These restrictions brought the price rises to a grinding halt. The Bank of Japan also did their part tightening interest rates to peak of 6% in 1990.”

      https://housingjapan.com/buy/history/

    • Reply
      David Lee 1 month ago

      Exactly what I was thinking the other day. People probably thought Manhattan prices seemed insane as they were climbing. Now those people are 50, and stuck in their rent controlled rental because they sat on the opportunity.

    • Reply
      Gabriel A. 1 month ago

      tell that to japan

    • Reply
      Raging Ranter 1 month ago

      So buy land then. Or, by a box in the sky and find out too late that they are making plenty more boxes in the sky. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

  • Reply
    Joseph P 1 month ago

    That annual percentage change chart is looking a little tired there, buddies.

    • Reply
      Avi G 1 month ago

      Compressed gains. Watch it rip higher next year. It’ll average out the previous year.

  • Reply
    Justin 1 month ago

    Appreciate the balanced coverage today. No point in pretending the Toronto condo market is falling apart when it’s not even close.

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

      I don’t believe anyone is suggesting condos are falling apart, there is a 6-12 month lag after SFH which are coming down and will start getting slaughtered in the next 3-4 month. Funny how this ‘unpredictable, never know when it will pop bubble’ seems to be following the same pattern. Cheap money, then no cheap money = boom and bust. Let’s see where condos are in the tail end of next year once all of the 2019 inventory is completed; already seeing a lot of pre-con incentives, once those max out the only way to increase demand be through reducing the stick price…there are only so many free lockers and granite upgrades to go around. Not like I care, lol. Tick tock. BD4L.

      • Reply
        SUMSKILLZ 1 month ago

        Seems like a Freudian slip: “I don’t believe anyone is suggesting condos are falling apart”…I know you mean prices, but I took it literally at first and though, huh? That’s not entirely true.

      • Reply
        joshua 1 month ago

        weren’t you the one always saying wait till september 2018 for bubble pop. tick tock? obviously your clock is broken. pro tip – everyone uses digital watches – no tick tock.

        • Reply
          Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

          We are experiencing existing and pre-con SFH price declines and condos are lagging. But, you know, since I control everything I guess I got it wrong? Way to make me feel bad. Dick.
          Look Josh, you definitely know what you’re doing, I mean you have a digital watch and clearly know how to use it. I’m fine with the housing decisions
          I’ve made over the last year. Really, if you’re using me as some sort of kreskin-esque carnival freak I’m flattered (I would argue that me having a horn is more of a draw) but I can barely predict when my dog is going to shit on the floor…God, you know society is a mess when BetterDwelling commentary section is driving life decisions…tick tick. BD4L.

  • Reply
    Tony Brown 1 month ago

    If they would lower the barriers to building, Toronto would have plenty of cjeap supply. Until then, to the moon!

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

      yes tony, that’s the reason housing is bubbly. Building restrictions. When you grab half a dozen assignments, mind tossing one into my basket too? Make that two. Daddy is ready to roll! BD4L.

  • Reply
    Gear74 1 month ago

    To all the Blue bears in here : Toronto condo prices will continue to go up :
    1. This is the cheapest option of housing type in Toronto – you don’t have enough money to buy it – move out. There are enough people that can still afford it – young high paying professionals, baby boomers or wealthy immigrants (or whoever sold their property in Europe, Russia etc..) to name a few.
    2.Development charges increased by city and cost of steel increased – this cost will be moved to customers expense.
    3. Lots of employment with high paying jobs in the core – also soon Google, Microsoft, Shopify and more companies coming. This companies paying well over 100 K to start and people will be willing to live nearby.
    4.Money is still cheap
    5. Condo prices in Toronto is still cheap compared to big European and North American cities
    6. People making calculations – if they move to the core – no need to pay for the car and for insurance = saving lots of money and time for traveling.
    7. I just named a few reasons, not all of them. And again as I said before we will not see 25 percent increase anymore but healthy 8 percent possible easy.

    Blue Bear mark my words against yours in 6 month let’s see who was right. Meanwhile I will enjoy my 2 condos in Downtown Toronto purchased in 2015 and almost doubled in price. Good luck to everyone.

    • Reply
      Raging Ranter 1 month ago

      Another soon to be bankrupt amateur landlord who thinks he’s ballin’. Successful people generally don’t have time to wade into the muck of comment sections with us mere plebes. You are here to address your insecurities; to convince yourself that you made the right decision sinking into debt to buy into a crowded trade. You’ll find no comfort here I’m afraid.

    • Reply
      Grizzly Gus 1 month ago

      1. On a square footage basis, smaller condos are actually the most expensive option. Maybe not as important to those that never want to have kids. The cheapest option today is actually to rent, put your down deposit into a liquid investment and allow a noob landlord to subsidize you month over month while you put the savings into your portfolio. Only reason to buy in my opinion is if you do have a larger family and dont want to run the risk of having to move. This group is probably not looking at condos anyway. Young professionals, and “wealthy” immigrants are still dependent on financing. – Bet the credit cycle
      2. Builders wont start new projects if they would be at a loss, but the record supply underway and existing supply that needs to be moved will be sold for what ever price the market will bare. – Bet the credit cycle
      3. The average tech worker in Canada makes a fair bit less than 100k a year. Microsoft is moving its office from Mississauga, Shopify is growing but already here. Plus all those workers will require financing if they wanted to buy anyway. – Bet the credit cycle
      4. Cost of money is increasing – Bet the credit cycle.
      5. Which European and US cities are we talking about. The larger more expensive ones all seem to be correcting right now. -Right as central banks reverse QE and raise rates……..Credit cycle
      6. People making calculations – Wow I can be an investor and buy 500 sq feet of construction materials in the sky (at record high prices, record low rates), in a region with one of the most extreme weather swings in the world and all I have to do is lose 400-1000 a month?
      7. In 5 years time, people will look back at today’s condos as one of the worst investments of all time………… at least those that were smart enough to stay away from crypto anyway.
      8. Those price gains only count if you get your chips of the table.

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

        You’re making too much sense Grizz. Too much. Tick tock. BD4L.

    • Reply
      Enough of this.. 1 month ago

      Gear74 = Cannon Fodder 🎱

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

      My own Groupie! I’m married so we’ll have to keep it to dry humping or mild petting.

      1. RE prices are higher in Canada,despite FX differences. Just ask my boy guggle. Unless you’re rich and can make up the difference or you’re downgrading, selling in Rome, for example, and trying to buy in Toronto or Van is a losing game.
      2. Yes, we’re in a global asset bubble. Thanks for calling this out, you remind me of my cat noticing the cheese under his stuffy two days later. All I can do is smile.
      3. Lol…are you high? All of these companies are here and have increased head count over the last few years…my brother in law is moving to the Amazon office in November from the UK.
      4. If you’re underleveraged sure, there is more kitty. We know most borrowers can’t deal with even a $200 delta. Oh and money is getting more expensive each quarter.
      5. Again, do you understand the words you’re typing? Check milan, barcelona,Boston, Chicago,Melbourne, etc.
      6.Have you ever lived in ‘the core’? You pay a premium for most things. Toronto is still very car dependent but nice try.
      7. Healthy 8% in perpetuity for RE? So compounded RE doubles every 10 years approx just cuz? Smile. The cheese is there muffin, just use your nose.
      Tick tock. BD4L.

    • Reply
      Asterix1 1 month ago

      Spoken like a true realtor! Or clueless, late to the show “speculator”.

      What part of “credit tightening”, “indebted Canadians”, “biggest RE bubble in the World” are people not grasping.

    • Reply
      LOL 4 weeks ago

      Those high-income people probably don’t want to buy a shoe box… talking to all my coworkers (late 20 and 30) and they can’t believe people are willing to buy that with this price while there are other options. They are not dumb…builders better start building bigger ones..

  • Reply
    spinnig head 1 month ago

    My head is spinning…my son is in his first year going to university down town Toronto and insist the 1 hour commute each way is too much. I started to research purchasing a condo downtown as an investment and am further confused especially after reading the various commentary…”need the crystal ball”

    • Reply
      Grizzly Gus 1 month ago

      There is a record amount of construction boxes coming online in next 1-3 years. Over 50% of these were pre sold to savvy “investors” like Gear$0.74 and Mmr. Hopefully they can cover because they did this prior to the rate hikes (more to come) and B-20, Their 20% down payment came from taking out a HELOC on the recently inflated value of their existing homes, and was provided to them by Joshua, who borrows money against his home at 4% (and going up) and lends it back out at 12%. Their investments will be cash flow negative (even if rents down fall in the coming recession) , but they don’t care because they know that condo prices will only go up because of refugees.

      Sure actual end users and some investors will be able to hold on. Congrats, its 25 years in the future, you have paid the bank double from what you borrowed. Your maintenance fees are three times higher than the brand new building across the street, and owners are still being pressed to fork up a large chunk of cash to replace the buildings windows and other critical infrastructure.

      • Reply
        Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

        hmmm…i took a different angle. You always outclass me Grizz. The force is balanced. BD4L.

        • Reply
          Grizzly Gus 1 month ago

          “This isn’t going to end the way you think”

          Yours works too Blue.

    • Reply
      Bluetheimpala 1 month ago

      lol, so your 20 year old is complaining about a 1 hr commute? Sweeeet lord. Wow, we are getting sooo soft, i can only assume in a ‘red dawn’ situation we’re fucked and it doesn’t need to be russia, I think Tonga could probably do the job. You want an honest response? I had to take a 45 minute public transit bus to high school. Walked 40 minutes to wash dishes at 16 at 1am in the morning. When I worked in toronto it took 45-75 minutes to get home sometimes more. I can go back to how my were raised…post war europe…yeah, not going there.
      Seems like you picked a dud; do you have another child you can raise to be less of a weak turd? I can come by and slap some sense into him if required. Blue is always here to help! BD4L.

      • Reply
        vnm 1 month ago

        Blue/Grizz: Been reading BD for quite some time, and
        you continue to surprise and amaze!

      • Reply
        SCE 4 weeks ago

        COMMENT POLICY:
        We encourage you to have a civil discussion. Note that reads “civil,” which means don’t act like jerks to each other. Still unclear? No name-calling, racism, or hate speech. Seriously, you’re adults – act like it.

        Any comments that violates these simple rules, will be removed promptly – along with your full comment history. Oh yeah, you’ll also lose further commenting privileges. So if your comments disappear, it’s not because the illuminati is screening you because they hate the truth, it’s because you violated our simple rules.

        This site is a joke. The only people who will removed are those that don’t think a crash is coming. Such an unbelievably biased site.

        Blue, what’s so bad about avoiding 2 hours of commute everyday? Time could be better spent vs sitting on a bus. Good for you for accepting those long commute times. You probably had no choice and grew up in a situation where you had to live that far. Maybe if your parents were better off you could have lived closer to the core. I don’t really care about your situation, but I doubt it has improved much. You’re probably still living far off unable to improve your situation because all you do is whine about how the end is near. Be a renter all your life, all the landlords would be happy to rent to you…. life long tenant.

        People can go on about how investing in property is horrible, it’s better to invest in stocks etc. Well higher rates affect the stock markets as well, so if people really think this is the better way, then keep buying every stock market dip there is while paying rent.

        • Reply
          Joe Blow 3 weeks ago

          SCE,

          I agree with alot of your comment says, particularly when it comes to Naysayers that have cried wolf about a crash comming since the existance of this blog. Same goes for the Overleveraged and financially invincible Unicorns. Truth is Nobody knows what is going to happen, All these damn experts Bullish or Bearish have actually been 100% wrong. And the more these experts continue to be wrong. the more hateful and pathetic the comments become.

          All you can do is look at your personal financial situation and do your own due dilligence.

    • Reply
      A 4 weeks ago

      Even if you buy in the core, unless you are buy a condo within walking distance of the school, your son would STILL be commuting for an hour. I have live in Toronto my whole life and transportation in this city is a nightmare.

  • Reply
    Luxury Residence Canada 4 weeks ago

    A lot of brokers I deal with are definitely in a bit of a panic and our sales for our listing marketing is way way down this month so far. Interesting times ahead for the land of condo gold in Vancouver..Toronto still seems to be busy enough.

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