Canadian real estate went from boom to bust—but the biggest risk lies ahead. Ontario is the latest province to offer rebates for first-time buyers of new homes, building on recent federal incentives. Framed as affordability, these programs resemble US housing bubble schemes—designed to shift risk from investors to families, who absorb losses rather than default. […]
Canada’s private-sector business environment is worse than headline data suggests. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows active businesses were little changed in July, but a closer look reveals the economy has seen big changes. Active business growth is increasingly concentrated in sectors dependent on public spending. The headline data has obscured reality, masking a sharp erosion […]
Canada’s economy was already unraveling before the immigration boom, according to CIBC Economics. A new report from the bank argues the downturn was inevitable—cheap credit masked deeper structural issues, and the post-pandemic recoil would have occurred in any event. The bank suggests the non-permanent resident (NPR) boom may have softened the economic damage, not amplified […]
Canada’s about to become one of the world’s largest exporters of shiny rocks. BMO Capital Markets recently told investors that gold is just a hair shy of being Canada’s second-largest export. Underlying output has quietly scaled over the past 25-years, leaving the industry well-positioned for the recent price surge. Though it’s worth noting that the […]
Canadian real estate is forecast to see some sunshine—but not without periods of volatility. RBC now sees a gradual path to recovery for home sales, but warns it will be uneven, softening its stance on a “soft landing.” Most markets are expected to improve—except Toronto and Vancouver, where prices are seen falling further. The outlook […]
Canadians will soon answer an age-old question—if home values are inflated to facilitate mortgage leverage, will regulators actually do anything? Canadian lenders are increasingly using blanket appraisals, treating pre-construction contract prices as market value to maximize leverage and close new home purchases. The move shifts risk from developers to buyers—especially those who bought at peak, […]
Canada’s central bank is running out of excuses. Headline inflation surged in September, according to Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Rising headline inflation is certainly a concern, but it was dwarfed by what the agency omitted: the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred core inflation metrics. The BoC recently floated the idea of […]
Canadian real estate revived an old risk: mortgage debt is back in the driver’s seat. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows household credit climbed again in August, driven almost entirely by mortgage debt. While borrowing remains historically slow, mortgages are still growing much faster than other forms of credit—now accounting for nearly 8 in 10 […]
Canada saw foreign investment return, but it wasn’t the positive indicator it normally signals. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data shows foreign investors recorded a net inflow of $25.9 billion in August, the most in over a year. Nearly all of it was debt demand, though not the kind policymakers brag about. Investors skipped government bonds, equities, […]
Canadian real estate sellers all had the same brilliant idea last month: list before inventory surges. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows September sales hit a multi-year high, but the volume remained tepid—especially in contrast to the record flood of new listings. Market balance is now the weakest since the ’90s real estate crash, […]
