Canadian employment was little changed last month, but the details were more concerning. Statistics Canada (StatCan) data show employment stalled in October, but unemployment climbed. It’s not just harder to find a job, but those unemployed are struggling to find work. The agency warns that nearly 1 in 3 adults now face financial hardship, rolling back gains made since 2022.
Canadian Employment Stalls As Unemployment Climbs
Canadian seasonally adjusted unemployment rate.
Source: StatCan.
Employment was virtually flat (0%; -4.7k) in October, following losses in September (-68k) and August (-42k). Despite the stall, more people searching for work pushed the unemployment rate to 6.7%, up 0.2 points. Most of the pain is concentrated in Alberta and Ontario, where the rate is now 7.3% in both provinces.
October’s flat move somewhat downplays the emerging weakness in the labour force. A sharp drop in private sector employment (-53k) was only offset by a jump in the public sector (+50k). The public sector’s increase comes after four months of losses.
Employment has only grown 0.1% (+17k) over the past year. That’s a little light considering population revisions show 189.4k more people y/y in Q3. StatCan has previously stated that the revisions will be gradually introduced into employment data. Dismissing slow growth due to the population no longer makes sense, and unemployment is understated.
Retail Leads Job Losses, While Construction Adds Workers
The areas most impacted were wholesale and retail (-1.0%; -29k jobs) in October, contracting 3.7% (-113k) in the past year. Those losses were partially offset by construction growing 0.9% (+16k) in October, rising 2.9% (+47k) in the past year.
One surprise in the data is education, which grew 1.0% (+15k) in October. This partially reverses the 35k jobs lost in the sector in September, but it remains 3.0% (-48k) lower than last year.
Nearly 30% Of Canadians Struggle to Cover Necessities
The share of Canadians who struggled to pay for necessities, including transportation, housing, food, and clothing.
Source: StatCan.
A lot more Canadians are struggling, according to StatCan’s special supplement. The agency’s labour report also had numbers on the share of those aged 15+ struggling to pay for necessities. They found 29.7% of people had difficulty paying for necessities in the past four weeks, up 2 points from last year. This recent bump partially rolls back improvements made from 2022 through 2025.
Among Canada’s 15 CMAs, the worst hit is Oshawa, where 38.4% of people struggled to buy necessities. It was followed by Windsor (36.9%) and Hamilton (35.9%). The trio makes it easy to conclude this is trade war-related, but it may be an Ontario thing. Even more diversified regions like Toronto (32%) were much higher than Vancouver (26.1%). Though, to be fair, 1 in 4 adults struggling to pay for necessities is still a systemic failure.
Struggling to find a job after a loss is definitely a contributor. Only 18.9% of those unemployed in September found work in October, well below the 24.6% in the same period from 2017 to 2019. Long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) also hit 23.7%, up from 21.5% last year and an average of just 17.2% between 2017 and 2019, warns StatCan.
Headline employment shows a stall, but clearly that’s an overly optimistic view. The population continues to grow faster than the handful of jobs being created. Replacing a lost job is harder, and long-term unemployment is spreading to more people. Add to that the reversal in financial security improvements, and this is one of the worst reports in a while.
