Canada plans to slow its population growth next year, and it might be ahead of schedule. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data shows applications for temporary residency, including extensions, declined in October. The decline comes ahead of a policy to shrink the temporary resident population, which has more than doubled over the past 3 years.
About Today’s Data
Today we’re looking at temporary resident applications, including extensions. Temporary residents are those with visas residing in the country on a non-permanent basis. The category includes those on temporary work visas, study permits, refugee applications, and special permits. Extensions are applications filed by existing temporary residents that are looking to stay on this visa a little longer without pursuing a more permanent arrangement.
Canadian Temporary Resident Applications & Extensions Are Falling
October applications and extensions for temporary residency received by the IRCC.
Source: IRCC; Better Dwelling.
Canadian temporary resident applications are finally beginning to contract after a massive surge. The IRCC received 436.2k new applications for temporary residency, including those looking to extend their existing visa. This is down 16% compared to the same month last year, but still much higher than 2022 (+17%), and nearly double 2021 (+94%). Slowing, but only after a sharp increase.
Year To Date Applications Are Only Slightly Lower Than Last Year
The trend is a new one, and beginning to roll back year to date (YTD) growth. New applications and extensions are down 2% at 5.17 million YTD. October alone made up three-quarters of the total decline observed over this period.
Despite the pullback from last year, a look at recent years shows this is just a drop in the bucket. YTD applications are still significantly higher than 2022 (+29%), and nearly 3x the amount seen in 2021 (+182%). This year might be slower but even cutting this number in half would be a big change from just a few years prior.
Canada Plans To Shrink Its Temporary Resident Population In 2025
Despite the temporary nature of these visas, many people see them as a gateway to immigration. Canada’s policymakers leaned on that appearance to help drive the recent breakneck population growth we’ve seen in recent years.
Since 2021, the country’s temporary resident population has grown a whopping 150% to 2.96 million people. It’s not possible to add the equivalent of a major city-worth of temporary residents without sharp growing pains that are behind the declines.
The drop is one part appeal and one part policy. There’s evidence that applications in some segments were already beginning to fall before policymakers slowed applications. Rising tensions between Canada and India, the largest source of foreign students, resulted in slowing study permit applications back in 2023. Canada followed this by announcing policies to limit study permits and restrict schools eligible for study permits.
The policies were followed up with tighter measures, including a freeze on low wage temporary worker applications in major cities with elevated unemployment. More recently, policymakers have announced they would attempt intentional population de-growth, primarily by limits on temporary workers. With applications falling ahead of the first year, the real hurdle will be managing the 1.2 million temporary residents whose visas expire next year.
All would be welcomed if proper vetting was done AND the infrastructure to support already in place. You don’t keep filling a gas tank when it’s already full. “Rising tensions between Canada and India,” No, the tensions are created by the PM and Canadians do not support meaningless drama to suit a narrative. Regardless given the supports supplied to newcomers seem generous as well as remuneration in wages (up to $10k) by feds to employers to hire newcomers, this has caused a demographically charged populace in that fairness to existing Canadians are overlooked in favor of further creating division and societal woes.
There is plenty of housing infrastructure becoming available as the population is shrinking in these high priced areas such as Toronto. Dog crate condos sit unfinished or empty all over the GTA as foreclosure actions are underway. These units should be expropriated by the Federal government and turned into homeless shelters instead of letting them rot empty as what is starting to happen. Nobody wants to buy them anyways as the foreign investors have been banned and Canadian investors are being taxed into oblivion. Smart money is headed at breakneck speed south to the USA.
It would be a good idea to send the low wage workers back as it only benefits wealthy companies and hurts people who have contributes here all their lives to a system that is failing them due to supporting said companies as well as making housing ect unaffordable.
Canada needs at least 10,000,000 international students per year.
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It would be wise to stop building new dog crate style condos and apartments in Canadian cities. Temporary foreign workers, foreign students and low paid immigrants and refugees are the only ones that want to live in them. A glut of them are out there and will be empty as the customer base is rapidly shrinking or disappearing altogether from major centres like GTA, Greater Vancouver, Halifax and to some extent Calgary as record building is taking place there at this time. If population shrinkage does actually happen as they say – the housing crisis will be too many overpriced rentals in these areas and high vacancy rates. This will push down the so called official inflation rates thus bringing down mortgage rates. Many renters who will be left will buy condos, townhouses and single family homes creating an even larger housing bubble. The outgoing Liberal government threw billions in incentives out there to build rental housing but did little to provide incentives for what people actually want. Reactionary approach without any real thought about what the outcome will be. No wonder Housing/Immigration Minister Shawn Fraser quit and is headed back to Nova Scotia to hopefully become the next Liberal Premier sometime in the future. Another poster boy air head is all they need. He oversaw the mess created in both portfolios at the behest of his friend Justin Trudeau.