Canadian Real Estate Prices Make Smallest Price Change Since Great Recession

Canadian real estate has cooled down significantly over the past few months. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show national price growth fell in January. The annual pace of growth for homes across Canada is now the lowest its been since the Great Recession. The trend is largely driven by broad weakness, with all but 2 major markets falling from peak prices.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Peaked In May 2018

Canadian real estate prices fell last month, barely squeezing out an annual gain. CREA reported the price of a typical house in Canada reached $613,500 in January, down 0.52% from the month before. Prices are 0.79% higher than the same month last year, but down 2.28% from the peak reached in May 2018. It’s not great, but could be worse.

The annual pace of growth continued to decelerate to a multi-year year low. January’s annual pace of growth was 89% lower than last year. It also marked the 5th consecutive month of deceleration. The pace is now the slowest it has been since 2009. Like we said, it could be worse – we just haven’t seen worse in a long time.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Change

The 12 month price in change of a typical home across Canada.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Ontario Real Estate Made The Biggest Annual Gains

Not all Canadian real estate markets are losers, but most winners are in Eastern Canada. Guelph has the highest annual pace of growth with prices hitting $522,300 in January, up 7.18% from last year. It was followed by Ottawa’s typical home price that climbed to $396,300, up 7.11% from last year. Niagara followed with prices hitting $391,300, up 7.03% from last year. Worth noting that these markets made year over year gains, but aren’t all at peak.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Price

The price of a typical home in Canada’s largest real estate markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The biggest losers in Canadian real estate were all in Western Canada. Vancouver made the largest decline, with the price of a typical home falling to $1,019,600 in January. This represents a 4.52% decline compared to last year. Calgary followed with a price of $410,200, down 3.87% from last year. Regina was in third with a home falling to $266,600, down 3.82% from last year. Even with the large decline in Vancouver, it’s still the most expensive market in the country.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change – 1 Year

The 1 year percent change in the price of a typical home, in Canada’s largest markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Only 2 Canadian Real Estate Markets Are At Peak

Only 2 major real estate markets reached a new peak – Ottawa and Montreal. The price of a typical home in Ottawa climbed to $396,300, a new all-time high. Montreal home prices climbed to $349,300, once again a new all-time high. That’s it, the rest have fallen – including some of the biggest annual gainers.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change From Peak

The percent change from peak pricing for a typical home in Canada’s largest markets.

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Edmonton, Regina, and Barrie real estate have fallen furthest from peak. A typical home in Edmonton cost $317,200 in January, a 15.14% decline from peak pricing. Regina home prices are down to $266,600, down 13.36% from its peak. Barrie fell to $464,400, down 12.82% from peak. Before you blame the stress test, both Edmonton and Regina have two of the highest incomes in Canada. A stress test should have minimal impact on a median household buying a typical home.

Neither Toronto or Vancouver real estate made the top or the bottom of the peak list. The typical Toronto home was $761,800 in January, down 6.55% from peak pricing. In Vancouver it’s falled to $1,019,600, down 7.7% from peak prices. Neither made the high or low, but both underperformed the national average.

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  • Mikie 4 years ago

    2 da moon! But first, let’s take a trip underground.

  • Senor Smoke 4 years ago

    This is what happens when you legalize marijuana.

  • Joe 4 years ago

    Every article points to the negativity of the real estate market but when I look up recent solds in the E01/E02/E03 areas, I see so many semis selling for close to a mil…

    My guess is that luxury homes are taking the majority of the price declines whereas homes less than 1.5m are actually still gaining ground as they are still reachable for some who wants land instead of a box in the sky.

  • Zenity 4 years ago

    The price needs to come down not small gains. If the prices don’t come down talent will leave Canada for the states and the economy will be screwed. Imagine trying to pay all the benefit s of these retirees without high skilled workers to pay taxes.

    Now that I think about it if we leave Toronto for NYC you will automatically get an increase in income by pure exchange rate, less tax and actually lower cost of living. Young people who are not likely to get sick should all leave Canada. High cost of living, high housing high tax and horrible weather.

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